Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Local radars were lit up with severe convection over our western
and delta regional zones. A severe weather outbreak is still
expected today. The 12Z Sat JAN sounding a decent cap at 850mb
that has helped suppress convection over central and east
Mississippi so far but, that cap is expected to erode. Recent
light shower development along and south of Interstate 20 was
already showing signs that the cap was eroding. In addition strong
gusty winds were being observed. These wind gusts will become
stronger this afternoon prompting the issuance of a Wind Advisory
for gusts of 45-50mph even away from storms. Otherwise, the
current Tornado Watch for the western half of the area expires at
1PM. A second Tornado Watch covering the eastern half of MS will
likely be issued prior to 1PM. Tornadoes, some strong to violent
and long-tracked remain the main threat with the storms this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will also be
possible. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Saturday through next Friday...

Saturday: A severe weather outbreak is expected today through
this evening as all modes of severe weather will be possible
including strong to violent, long-track tornadoes. Damaging winds
60-70 mph and large hail will be likely as well. As a strong,
upper lvl trough pushes towards the area, the low-lvl jet will
strengthen during the afternoon over the region. As a result,
strong deep- layer shear/SRH and favorable instability in place
will lead to multiple rounds of convection with supercell
potential throughout mid morning until the evening.

A high risk for severe weather continues to be advertised in the
greater threat area for violent tornadoes over central into east MS
where supercells will have great access to the most unstable air and
backed low level flow. Scattered to numerous supercells are likely
to develop in the warm sector, and given the fast cell motions and
classic nature of the storms, would expect the potential for long
tornado tracks, so this continues to be messaged. Outside of severe
storms, gusty winds are expected throughout the day. Heavy rainfall
is less of concern but flash flooding will be possible within areas
that experience training storms.

Sunday through next Friday: Ridging pattern along with upper-lvl
zonal flow will filter into the region into next week. Temps will
start off cooler but will be near seasonal averages. Next chance
for rainfall will come on Wednesday as a shortwave trough swings
through the area. Mostly showers and a brief cooldown are expected
with this disturbance. /SW/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected this morning and aftn. MVFR
cigs and gusty winds 25-30kts wl prevail through the aftn away
from +TSRA that will become numerous across the area today. At
1130Z a band of +TSRA was noted on local radars across the nw.
This band will continue shifting east today while additional +TSRA
develop ahead of the band. Conditions are expected to improve
this evening with VFR conditions areawide by 06Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  51  65  40 /  90  40   0   0
Meridian      77  51  68  39 /  90  60   0   0
Vicksburg     76  50  64  40 /  90  30   0   0
Hattiesburg   78  53  73  41 /  80  30   0   0
Natchez       77  50  65  40 /  90  20   0   0
Greenville    72  48  59  40 /  90  30   0   0
Greenwood     75  50  61  38 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ030>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/SW/22

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
645 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Hail             2 SE Dermott            33.50N 91.41W
03/15/2025  M0.25 Inch       Chicot             AR   Fire Dept/Rescue

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
657 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     Tornado          Elliott                 33.69N 89.75W
03/15/2025                   Grenada            MS   Law Enforcement

            Report of extensive damage to Elliott
            community; downed power lines and multiple
            residences destroyed.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
817 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 ESE Mer Rouge         32.74N 91.72W
03/15/2025                   Morehouse          LA   Law Enforcement

            Report of downed tree.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
828 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WSW Valley Hill       33.50N 90.08W
03/15/2025  M58 MPH          Carroll            MS   ASOS

&&

KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
906 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

MSZ026>028-036-151445-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-Montgomery MS-Holmes MS-
906 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HOLMES...CARROLL...
GRENADA AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 906 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emory, or 7 miles northeast of Lexington, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Black Hawk, Coila, and Emory around 910 AM CDT.
  Winona, North Carrollton, and Carrollton around 920 AM CDT.
  Jefferson and Duck Hill around 930 AM CDT.
  Grenada and Elliott around 935 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for central and
north central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8951 3375 8951 3312 8987 3312 9011
      3381 9006 3381 8998 3382 8998 3383 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 1406Z 203DEG 52KT 3321 8999

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1113 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     Tornado          3 SW Grace              32.97N 90.99W
03/15/2025                   Issaquena          MS   Emergency Mngr

            Sharkey County EMA reports houses damaged
            and power lines down near Grace with an
            ambulance in route for possible injuries.

&&

EC