Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
117 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Local radars were lit up with severe convection over our western
and delta regional zones. A severe weather outbreak is still
expected today. The 12Z Sat JAN sounding a decent cap at 850mb
that has helped suppress convection over central and east
Mississippi so far but, that cap is expected to erode. Recent
light shower development along and south of Interstate 20 was
already showing signs that the cap was eroding. In addition strong
gusty winds were being observed. These wind gusts will become
stronger this afternoon prompting the issuance of a Wind Advisory
for gusts of 45-50mph even away from storms. Otherwise, the
current Tornado Watch for the western half of the area expires at
1PM. A second Tornado Watch covering the eastern half of MS will
likely be issued prior to 1PM. Tornadoes, some strong to violent
and long-tracked remain the main threat with the storms this
afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will also be
possible. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Saturday through next Friday...

Saturday: A severe weather outbreak is expected today through
this evening as all modes of severe weather will be possible
including strong to violent, long-track tornadoes. Damaging winds
60-70 mph and large hail will be likely as well. As a strong,
upper lvl trough pushes towards the area, the low-lvl jet will
strengthen during the afternoon over the region. As a result,
strong deep- layer shear/SRH and favorable instability in place
will lead to multiple rounds of convection with supercell
potential throughout mid morning until the evening.

A high risk for severe weather continues to be advertised in the
greater threat area for violent tornadoes over central into east MS
where supercells will have great access to the most unstable air and
backed low level flow. Scattered to numerous supercells are likely
to develop in the warm sector, and given the fast cell motions and
classic nature of the storms, would expect the potential for long
tornado tracks, so this continues to be messaged. Outside of severe
storms, gusty winds are expected throughout the day. Heavy rainfall
is less of concern but flash flooding will be possible within areas
that experience training storms.

Sunday through next Friday: Ridging pattern along with upper-lvl
zonal flow will filter into the region into next week. Temps will
start off cooler but will be near seasonal averages. Next chance
for rainfall will come on Wednesday as a shortwave trough swings
through the area. Mostly showers and a brief cooldown are expected
with this disturbance. /SW/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected until around 7pm (00Z on the
16th) throughout the CWA. There is a large severe weather system
producing damaging winds of over 60kt and hail over 2in moving
through the CWA. As such vis/cigs will range from LIFR to VFR
intermittently while the system passes through. This system should
clear western sites by 18Z, central sites by 21Z, and finally
eastern sites by 00Z. Once this system clears the area in question,
expect benign weather and mostly VFR conditions with ceilings
ranging in the 3-4kft range for the remainder of the TAF period./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       51  65  40  69 /  40   0   0   0
Meridian      51  68  39  67 /  60   0   0   0
Vicksburg     50  64  40  69 /  30   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  73  41  71 /  30   0   0   0
Natchez       50  65  40  70 /  20   0   0   0
Greenville    48  59  40  66 /  30   0   0   0
Greenwood     50  61  38  67 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ030>033-037>039-
     043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/SW/OAJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Ruleville         33.72N 90.57W
03/15/2025                   Sunflower          MS   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reported a tree down on a
            powerline near 101 Dorrough Rd in Ruleville.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1136 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Lake Providence   32.79N 91.18W
03/15/2025                   East Carroll       LA   Law Enforcement

            Report of multiple trees downed along
            HWY-65S as well as damage to residences and
            businesses in downtown Lake Providence.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1143 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     Tornado          1 SSE Nitta Yuma        33.02N 90.84W
03/15/2025                   Sharkey            MS   Trained Spotter

            Utility pole snapped and trees snapped along
            US 61 just south of Nitta Yuma.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1150 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     North Crossett          33.17N 91.94W
03/15/2025                   Ashley             AR   Law Enforcement

            Report of multiple trees downed along
            HWY-52, HWY-133, and Camp Rd.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     Flash Flood      1 WNW Cleveland         33.75N 90.75W
03/15/2025                   Bolivar            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported multiple roads
            flooded, west of Cleveland MS.

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
113 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 WSW Pelahatchie       32.30N 89.89W
03/15/2025                   Rankin             MS   Law Enforcement

            Local law enforcement reported several trees
            down near Collier Cv in Rankin MS.

&&

CR