Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2023

Tornado Watch 4

January 2, 202318 counties in Arkansas; 14 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jan 2, 2023, 8:59 PM CST for 18 counties in Arkansas; 14 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2023, 8:59 PM CST (02:59 UTC)
Expired
Jan 3, 2023, 3:00 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 36 counties

Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Pike County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Panola County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 9:03 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVBossier, Caddo, De Soto3 hr
Jan 2, 9:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Drew, Lincoln50 min
Jan 2, 9:55 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring, Pulaski, Saline3 hr
Jan 2, 9:56 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln34 min
Jan 2, 10:12 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln7 hr
Jan 2, 10:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Cleveland, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln and 2 more48 min
Jan 2, 10:59 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Ouachita3 hr
Jan 2, 11:24 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVColumbia, Union3 hr
Jan 2, 11:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe37 min
Jan 3, 12:09 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKArkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe5 hr
Jan 3, 12:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln44 min
Jan 3, 1:45 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Dallas, Ouachita3 hr
Jan 3, 1:52 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Ouachita5 hr
Jan 3, 1:55 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningSHVColumbia, Nevada, Union3 hr
Jan 3, 2:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVPanola, Rusk, Shelby48 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2023-01-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 396 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2023-01-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 357 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
396 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-135 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
715 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
357 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
446 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

542 
WWUS20 KWNS 030256
SEL4  
SPC WW 030256
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Arkansas
  North central and northwest Louisiana
  Extreme east Texas

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 900 PM
  until 300 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters and bands of storms with embedded supercell
structures will likely persist well into the early morning hours,
with an attendant threat for tornadoes (one or two of which could be
strong), damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west of Pine Bluff AR to 25
miles west southwest of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 1. Watch number 1 will not be in effect after 900 PM
CST. CONTINUE...WW 2...WW 3...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 6:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 23 more89 min
Jan 2, 6:29 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 2 more9 hr
Jan 2, 7:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreene96 min
Jan 2, 8:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Crittenden, Desha and 5 more89 min
Jan 2, 10:11 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCrittenden, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, St. Francis5 hr
Jan 2, 11:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 15 more118 min
Jan 3, 1:36 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips and 1 more114 min
Jan 3, 2:56 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips, Union8 hr
Jan 3, 7:56 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvoyelles, Caldwell, Catahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Evangeline and 8 more2 hr
Jan 3, 9:14 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 6 more8 hr
Jan 3, 5:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCConcordia, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Washington, West Feliciana9 hr
Jan 2, 11:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Camp, Delta, Franklin, Freestone, Henderson and 11 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2023Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2023Tornado Watches in Texas, 2023Every tornado watch in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.