Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2023

Tornado Watch 3

January 2, 20238 counties in Arkansas; 4 parishes in Louisiana; Bolivar County, Washington County, Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jan 2, 2023, 6:29 PM CST for 8 counties in Arkansas; 4 parishes in Louisiana; Bolivar County, Washington County, Mississippi. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2023, 6:29 PM CST (00:29 UTC)
Expired
Jan 3, 2023, 3:00 AM CST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Monroe County, AR, East Carroll Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Bolivar County, MS, Washington County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 173 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

22 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 6:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley, Chicot63 min
Jan 2, 7:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKDesha, Drew42 min
Jan 2, 7:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMorehouse58 min
Jan 2, 7:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKDesha, Drew28 min
Jan 2, 7:46 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANMorehouse4 hr
Jan 2, 8:27 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley50 min
Jan 2, 9:10 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Drew, Lincoln50 min
Jan 2, 9:39 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKDesha, Drew36 min
Jan 2, 9:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew, Lincoln48 min
Jan 2, 9:56 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln34 min
Jan 2, 10:12 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln7 hr
Jan 2, 10:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Monroe37 min
Jan 2, 10:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar51 min
Jan 2, 10:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew, Lincoln46 min
Jan 2, 10:36 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKDesha12 min
Jan 2, 10:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMonroe23 min
Jan 2, 10:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Cleveland, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln and 2 more48 min
Jan 2, 10:59 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Ouachita3 hr
Jan 2, 11:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe37 min
Jan 3, 12:09 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKArkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe5 hr
Jan 3, 12:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln44 min
Jan 3, 1:52 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Ouachita5 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2023-01-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1091 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2023-01-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 174 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1091 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
716 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
174 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
222 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
3.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

058 
WWUS20 KWNS 030023
SEL3  
SPC WW 030023
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-030900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 3
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
625 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Arkansas
  Northeast Louisiana
  A small part of west central Mississippi

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 625 PM
  until 300 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms with embedded supercell/bow structures
will likely persist while spreading northeastward within the warm
sector through much of the overnight hours.  A strong tornado or two
will be possible with the most intense storms, along with damaging
gusts and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter.  Additional
storms could spread into this watch area from the west during the
early morning hours.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Greenville
MS to 25 miles southeast of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 21040.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 6:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 23 more89 min
Jan 2, 7:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreene96 min
Jan 2, 8:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Crittenden, Desha and 5 more89 min
Jan 2, 8:59 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Grant and 12 more6 hr
Jan 2, 10:11 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCrittenden, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, St. Francis5 hr
Jan 2, 11:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 15 more118 min
Jan 3, 1:36 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips and 1 more114 min
Jan 3, 2:56 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips, Union8 hr
Jan 3, 7:56 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvoyelles, Caldwell, Catahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Evangeline and 8 more2 hr
Jan 3, 9:14 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 6 more8 hr
Jan 3, 5:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCConcordia, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, Washington, West Feliciana9 hr
Jan 3, 11:38 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClarke, Jones, Wayne97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2023Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2023Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2023Every tornado watch in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.