Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2023
Mesoscale Discussion 13
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2023, 7:09 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 2, 2023, 7:09 PM CST (01:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 2, 2023, 8:45 PM CST
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 24 counties
Greene County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Dunklin County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 858 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 623 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 374 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 381 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.8
- Supercell composite
- 10.7
The text
As transmitted.
740
ACUS11 KWNS 030109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030109
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...Extreme northeast AR...Southeast MO...Far southern
IL...Far western KY...Northwest TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030109Z - 030245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible with time
this evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a
brief tornado or two. The need for watch issuance is uncertain at
this time.
DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing this evening from
northeast AR/northwest TN into western KY. While widespread rainfall
is limiting destabilization (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less),
favorable wind profiles (as noted on the KLZK and KNQA VWPs) are
supporting the potential for organized convection, and some
low/midlevel rotation has been noted with the stronger embedded
convective elements from extreme northeast AR into the MO Bootheel.
With a southerly low-level jet expected to intensify through the
evening, some threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief
tornado or two may evolve with any stronger bowing segments or
embedded supercells. However, limited instability and a tendency for
destructive storm interference may tend to limit the magnitude of
the severe threat, making the need for short-term watch issuance
uncertain. Additional rounds of potentially organized convection may
impact the same area late tonight, as upstream storms eventually
move into the region in advance of a cold front.
..Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36038929 36018995 36059062 36859011 37328946 37358839
37318790 37068788 36488823 36458848 36258879 36038929SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 6:01 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 23 more | 89 min |
| Jan 2, 6:29 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 2 more | 9 hr |
| Jan 2, 8:31 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Crittenden, Desha and 5 more | 89 min |
| Jan 2, 8:59 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Grant and 12 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 2, 10:11 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Crittenden, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, St. Francis | 5 hr |
| Jan 2, 11:17 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 15 more | 118 min |
| Jan 3, 1:36 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips and 1 more | 114 min |
| Jan 3, 2:56 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips, Union | 8 hr |
| Jan 3, 2:06 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 28 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 3, 2:08 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway and 24 more | 3 hr |
| Jan 3, 7:56 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Davidson, Decatur, DeKalb and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 3, 9:14 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bedford, Cannon, Coffee, Cumberland, DeKalb, Franklin and 14 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2023Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2023Every mesoscale discussion in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.