Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1236 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

00Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Central Iowa back
through Northwest Arkansas and into Central Texas. Surface
dewpoints still remain high in the 60s across much of the Mid-
South. Latest mesoanalysis yields between 1000-1500 J/kg surface-
based CAPE, 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity values generally
averaging between 300-500 m2/s2, and backing surface winds across
West Tennessee and Northwest Mississippi. Short-term trends still
indicate the environment remains favorable for supercells across
the Mid-South this evening with ample directional and speed shear,
and low LCLs. Consequently, Tornado Watch #94 which covers areas
generally along and west of the Mississippi River was extended
through 3Z. (10 PM CDT)

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A Severe Weather Outbreak is imminent this afternoon and evening.
A rare High Risk has been issued for southwest portions of the
Mid-South including the Memphis, Tennessee and Oxford,
Mississippi metros, with a Moderate Risk across the rest of the
Memphis Forecast Area. Damaging winds and several tornadoes remain
the highest threats, including a couple of strong and long-
tracked tornadoes possible. Secondary threats include large hail
and heavy rainfall. The threat for severe weather will end within
a couple of hours after midnight with a brief reprieve from
severe weather for the weekend. Wet, warm, and unsettled weather
will move into the region on Monday and persist through much of
next week. Severe weather chances remain in play for the Tuesday
to Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A Severe Weather Outbreak is still on track for this afternoon
and evening across the Mid-South. Little Rock, Arkansas has
already had at least one strong and damaging tornado move through
their city. The cell that produced that tornado is on a northeast
track towards Cross and Poinsett Counties in eastern Arkansas and
may intensify as it moves into our area.

Severe weather ingredients remain healthy along and west of the
Mississippi River with a less unstable environment further east.
However, the airmass is still continuing to modify ahead of the
main trough and will likely become just as unstable over the next
couple of hours.

A secondary marine front was analyzed along a northwest
to southeast line from Jonesboro, Arkansas to Holly Springs,
Mississippi and back through Tupelo, Mississippi. Dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 60s south of the front with low 60 dewpoints
north of the front. The latest Mesoanalysis places 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE in our southwest counties with a gradient of 1000 J/kg near
Memphis and down to 500 J/kg near Paris, TN. Additionally, the
entire forecast area is already in a highly sheared environment.
Any storms that move into our area will have the opportunity to
rotate and produce tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

Another round of storms will arrive this evening just ahead of a
cold front. The environment will likely be a little bit less
unstable, but more highly sheared. Damaging winds and tornadoes
remain the highest threats as it moves across the area. The storms
may congeal into a line of storms as they move into northeast
Mississippi later this evening. That threat would include damaging
winds and embedded tornadoes. The threat for severe weather
should end within a couple of hours after midnight.

High pressure will build into the region for Saturday and winds
will remain elevated. Sunday looks to be a nice day with
temperatures in the 70s and light winds and low humidity.

Wet, humid, and unsettled weather will set up across the region on
Monday and persist through at least late week. Dewpoints will
climb into the mid to upper 60s as temperatures climb into the
lower 80s early next week. There remains a risk for severe weather
Tuesday into the Wednesday timeframe.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Threat for thunderstorms at MEM, MKL, and JBR has ended. However,
potential for thunderstorms will persist at TUP through at least
8Z. VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms. Gusty south
winds will veer W/NW overnight and veer north by Saturday evening.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1149 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     TORNADO          2 NE ADAMSVILLE         35.26N 88.36W
03/31/2023                   HARDIN             TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE HOUSE NEAR ADAMSVILLE HAD ITS ROOF TORN
            OFF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 PM     TORNADO          4 SW BETHEL SPRINGS     35.19N 88.66W
03/31/2023                   MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 4 SW
            BETHEL SPRINGS. POWER LINES KNOCKED DOWN AND
            GUARDRAILS THROWN IN THE ROAD. NUMEROUS
            TREES ARE DOWN CLOSE TO SKY BLUE LANE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
117 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

MSZ006-010630-
Tishomingo MS-
117 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Tishomingo County through 130 AM CDT...

At 117 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Iuka, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Iuka, Bacon Springs, Blythe Crossing and Oldham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for northeastern
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 8812 3471 8822 3489 8825 3491 8815
      3490 8813 3489 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 262DEG 44KT 3482 8814

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
120 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

MSZ021>023-010645-
Calhoun MS-Yalobusha MS-Chickasaw MS-
120 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Chickasaw,
southeastern Yalobusha and Calhoun Counties through 145 AM CDT...

At 120 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Coffeeville, or 17 miles south of Water Valley, moving
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Houston, Bruce, Calhoun City, Vardaman, Derma, Pittsboro, Pyland,
Houlka, New Houlka, Big Creek, Thorn, Reid, Loyd, Ellard, Thelma,
Atlanta, Tyson, Gums, Retreat and Spearman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for northeastern
and northwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 8951 3387 8951 3387 8964 3405 8963
      3407 8901 3379 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0620Z 266DEG 49KT 3393 8954

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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