Tornado Warning 52, NWS Memphis, TN

215 
WWUS54 KMEG 010318
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1018 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MSC093-TNC157-010327-
/O.CAN.KMEG.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-230401T0330Z/
Marshall MS-Shelby TN-
1018 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN
SHELBY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Mississippi...and west Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3502 8927 3499 8944 3499 8964 3515 8963
      3523 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 248DEG 48KT 3505 8955 

$$

TNC047-010330-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-230401T0330Z/
Fayette TN-
1018 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY...
    
At 1017 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles north of Mt Pleasant, or 8 miles east of
Collierville, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Somerville, Macon, Oakland, Piperton, Rossville, Moscow, Williston,
Elba, Canadaville, Kirk, Hays Crossing, Forty Five, Hickory Withe and
Ghost River State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8927 3499 8944 3499 8964 3515 8963
      3523 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 248DEG 48KT 3505 8955 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

768 
WWUS54 KMEG 010323
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1023 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

TNC047-010333-
/O.EXP.KMEG.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-230401T0330Z/
Fayette TN-
1023 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1030 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Mississippi...and west Tennessee.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for southwestern 
Fayette County until 1030 PM.

LAT...LON 3502 8927 3499 8944 3499 8964 3515 8963
      3523 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0323Z 248DEG 48KT 3508 8947 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
747 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

00Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Central Iowa back
through Northwest Arkansas and into Central Texas. Surface
dewpoints still remain high in the 60s across much of the Mid-
South. Latest mesoanalysis yields between 1000-1500 J/kg surface-
based CAPE, 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity values generally
averaging between 300-500 m2/s2, and backing surface winds across
West Tennessee and Northwest Mississippi. Short-term trends still
indicate the environment remains favorable for supercells across
the Mid-South this evening with ample directional and speed shear,
and low LCLs. Consequently, Tornado Watch #94 which covers areas
generally along and west of the Mississippi River was extended
through 3Z. (10 PM CDT)

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A Severe Weather Outbreak is imminent this afternoon and evening.
A rare High Risk has been issued for southwest portions of the
Mid-South including the Memphis, Tennessee and Oxford,
Mississippi metros, with a Moderate Risk across the rest of the
Memphis Forecast Area. Damaging winds and several tornadoes remain
the highest threats, including a couple of strong and long-
tracked tornadoes possible. Secondary threats include large hail
and heavy rainfall. The threat for severe weather will end within
a couple of hours after midnight with a brief reprieve from
severe weather for the weekend. Wet, warm, and unsettled weather
will move into the region on Monday and persist through much of
next week. Severe weather chances remain in play for the Tuesday
to Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A Severe Weather Outbreak is still on track for this afternoon
and evening across the Mid-South. Little Rock, Arkansas has
already had at least one strong and damaging tornado move through
their city. The cell that produced that tornado is on a northeast
track towards Cross and Poinsett Counties in eastern Arkansas and
may intensify as it moves into our area.

Severe weather ingredients remain healthy along and west of the
Mississippi River with a less unstable environment further east.
However, the airmass is still continuing to modify ahead of the
main trough and will likely become just as unstable over the next
couple of hours.

A secondary marine front was analyzed along a northwest
to southeast line from Jonesboro, Arkansas to Holly Springs,
Mississippi and back through Tupelo, Mississippi. Dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 60s south of the front with low 60 dewpoints
north of the front. The latest Mesoanalysis places 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE in our southwest counties with a gradient of 1000 J/kg near
Memphis and down to 500 J/kg near Paris, TN. Additionally, the
entire forecast area is already in a highly sheared environment.
Any storms that move into our area will have the opportunity to
rotate and produce tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

Another round of storms will arrive this evening just ahead of a
cold front. The environment will likely be a little bit less
unstable, but more highly sheared. Damaging winds and tornadoes
remain the highest threats as it moves across the area. The storms
may congeal into a line of storms as they move into northeast
Mississippi later this evening. That threat would include damaging
winds and embedded tornadoes. The threat for severe weather
should end within a couple of hours after midnight.

High pressure will build into the region for Saturday and winds
will remain elevated. Sunday looks to be a nice day with
temperatures in the 70s and light winds and low humidity.

Wet, humid, and unsettled weather will set up across the region on
Monday and persist through at least late week. Dewpoints will
climb into the mid to upper 60s as temperatures climb into the
lower 80s early next week. There remains a risk for severe weather
Tuesday into the Wednesday timeframe.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to impact
MEM and MKL over the next hour or two. Strong damaging wind is
possible along with brief IFR vis. Hail and a tornado at least in
the vicinity is also a possibility.

Before and after thunderstorms strong south to southwest gradient
wind is likely between 25 and 45mph with gusts to 45 mph. Winds
will shift west and then northwest behind a cold front later
tonight.

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites tomorrow along with
northwest wind 10-15kt.

30/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
821 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W TUNICA              34.69N 90.45W
03/31/2023                   TUNICA             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME ROOF DAMAGE AND TREES DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 304 AND SCENIC LANE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
831 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ028-TNZ048-049-010200-
Mississippi AR-Tipton TN-Lauderdale TN-
831 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern
Mississippi, central Tipton and Lauderdale Counties through 900 PM
CDT...

At 831 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bassett, or near Wilson, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Ripley, Osceola, Wilson, Fort Pillow State Park, Joiner,
Bassett, Marie, Fulton, Ashport, Ft Pillow, Henning, Gilt Edge,
Burlison, Garland, Evadale, Driver, O'Donnell Bend, Grider and
Tomato.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for eastern
Arkansas...and west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8944 3569 8945 3540 9010 3556 9021
      3592 8962 3592 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 237DEG 54KT 3553 9008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW BYHALIA           34.88N 89.72W
03/31/2023                   MARSHALL           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
913 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HERNANDO            34.83N 90.02W
03/31/2023                   DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN WITH ONE
            TREE ON A CAR ON HORN LAKE ROAD NORTH OF
            DEAN ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
946 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BETHEL SPRINGS      35.24N 88.63W
03/31/2023                   MCNAIRY            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE ON BUENA VISTA ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW BETHEL SPRINGS     35.24N 88.61W
03/31/2023                   MCNAIRY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A WALL COLLAPSED ON A HOUSE ON FLOWERS ROAD
            NEAR BETHEL SPRINGS.

&&