Tornado Warning 55, NWS Memphis, TN

742 
WWUS54 KMEG 010339
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1039 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MSC027-107-119-143-010347-
/O.EXP.KMEG.TO.W.0055.000000T0000Z-230401T0345Z/
Coahoma MS-Tunica MS-Quitman MS-Panola MS-
1039 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN
TUNICA...NORTHERN QUITMAN AND WEST CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...
    
The Tornado Warning that was previously in effect has been reissued 
for northeast Coahoma County, northern Quitman County, and nortwest 
Panola County. Please refer to that bulletin for the latest severe 
weather information.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for eastern
Arkansas. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northwestern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3431 9074 3432 9074 3434 9076 3437 9068
      3433 9069 3431 9067 3433 9066 3435 9067
      3439 9064 3439 9062 3440 9059 3455 9020
      3437 9006 3421 9073 3428 9077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 247DEG 38KT 3437 9042 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
747 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

00Z Surface analysis places a cold front from Central Iowa back
through Northwest Arkansas and into Central Texas. Surface
dewpoints still remain high in the 60s across much of the Mid-
South. Latest mesoanalysis yields between 1000-1500 J/kg surface-
based CAPE, 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity values generally
averaging between 300-500 m2/s2, and backing surface winds across
West Tennessee and Northwest Mississippi. Short-term trends still
indicate the environment remains favorable for supercells across
the Mid-South this evening with ample directional and speed shear,
and low LCLs. Consequently, Tornado Watch #94 which covers areas
generally along and west of the Mississippi River was extended
through 3Z. (10 PM CDT)

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A Severe Weather Outbreak is imminent this afternoon and evening.
A rare High Risk has been issued for southwest portions of the
Mid-South including the Memphis, Tennessee and Oxford,
Mississippi metros, with a Moderate Risk across the rest of the
Memphis Forecast Area. Damaging winds and several tornadoes remain
the highest threats, including a couple of strong and long-
tracked tornadoes possible. Secondary threats include large hail
and heavy rainfall. The threat for severe weather will end within
a couple of hours after midnight with a brief reprieve from
severe weather for the weekend. Wet, warm, and unsettled weather
will move into the region on Monday and persist through much of
next week. Severe weather chances remain in play for the Tuesday
to Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A Severe Weather Outbreak is still on track for this afternoon
and evening across the Mid-South. Little Rock, Arkansas has
already had at least one strong and damaging tornado move through
their city. The cell that produced that tornado is on a northeast
track towards Cross and Poinsett Counties in eastern Arkansas and
may intensify as it moves into our area.

Severe weather ingredients remain healthy along and west of the
Mississippi River with a less unstable environment further east.
However, the airmass is still continuing to modify ahead of the
main trough and will likely become just as unstable over the next
couple of hours.

A secondary marine front was analyzed along a northwest
to southeast line from Jonesboro, Arkansas to Holly Springs,
Mississippi and back through Tupelo, Mississippi. Dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 60s south of the front with low 60 dewpoints
north of the front. The latest Mesoanalysis places 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE in our southwest counties with a gradient of 1000 J/kg near
Memphis and down to 500 J/kg near Paris, TN. Additionally, the
entire forecast area is already in a highly sheared environment.
Any storms that move into our area will have the opportunity to
rotate and produce tornadoes, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

Another round of storms will arrive this evening just ahead of a
cold front. The environment will likely be a little bit less
unstable, but more highly sheared. Damaging winds and tornadoes
remain the highest threats as it moves across the area. The storms
may congeal into a line of storms as they move into northeast
Mississippi later this evening. That threat would include damaging
winds and embedded tornadoes. The threat for severe weather
should end within a couple of hours after midnight.

High pressure will build into the region for Saturday and winds
will remain elevated. Sunday looks to be a nice day with
temperatures in the 70s and light winds and low humidity.

Wet, humid, and unsettled weather will set up across the region on
Monday and persist through at least late week. Dewpoints will
climb into the mid to upper 60s as temperatures climb into the
lower 80s early next week. There remains a risk for severe weather
Tuesday into the Wednesday timeframe.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to impact
MEM and MKL over the next hour or two. Strong damaging wind is
possible along with brief IFR vis. Hail and a tornado at least in
the vicinity is also a possibility.

Before and after thunderstorms strong south to southwest gradient
wind is likely between 25 and 45mph with gusts to 45 mph. Winds
will shift west and then northwest behind a cold front later
tonight.

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites tomorrow along with
northwest wind 10-15kt.

30/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW BYHALIA           34.88N 89.72W
03/31/2023                   MARSHALL           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
913 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W HERNANDO            34.83N 90.02W
03/31/2023                   DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN WITH ONE
            TREE ON A CAR ON HORN LAKE ROAD NORTH OF
            DEAN ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
946 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BETHEL SPRINGS      35.24N 88.63W
03/31/2023                   MCNAIRY            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE ON BUENA VISTA ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW BETHEL SPRINGS     35.24N 88.61W
03/31/2023                   MCNAIRY            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A WALL COLLAPSED ON A HOUSE ON FLOWERS ROAD
            NEAR BETHEL SPRINGS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SELMER                  35.17N 88.59W
03/31/2023                   MCNAIRY            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF DOWTY
            ROAD AND PEACH STREET ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            SELMER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW HUNTINGDON         35.97N 88.48W
03/31/2023                   CARROLL            TN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&