Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
751 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

- A widespread wind damage threat is evolving this afternoon and
  could continue through late evening across the forecast area.
  SPC has included an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for much of
  the area. Tornadoes will be possible, mainly across Northern GA,
  however, the wind threat should be considered the dominate
  impact.

- An Excessive Heat warning has been issued for portions of Middle
  GA. Heat index values are in excess of 110 for several counties.
  A heat advisory is in effect for much of the remainder of
  Central GA through 8 pm.

- Thunderstorms are again in the forecast for Tuesday with a
  Slight Risk in effect for much of Middle GA. Damaging winds will
  be the main concern.

Today and tonight:
A lot happening this afternoon and in the short term. Lets start
with heat.  Mid 90 temps and upper 70 dewpoints across West
central GA have led to heat index values exceeding 110 in several
locations so a Excessive Heat warning was introduced through early
evening for a portion of the Heat Advisory area.

Severe threat... 18z FFC sounding is juicy to say the least.
Observed 5390 J/KG CAPE, nearly 1500 DCape and sufficient shear in
place to support organized severe storms. Similarly to what we
experienced a few weeks ago across North GA not out of the
question given that amount of instability and slightly more jet
dynamics in play this time around. Expect the clusters of storms
across northern GA and Northern AL to congeal into more of a line
that shifts through the region later this afternoon. Damaging
winds with that line and within that line would be expected to be
widespread given the status of the environment its moving into.
Analyzed helicity values on the margin for some tornadoes so a few
cannot be ruled out, however, the main focus should be on the
damaging wind threat through this evening. Expect that line to
continue south through the CWA. There is some uncertainty with the
intensity of the line as it reaches the area south of
Macon/Columbus but certainly unstable enough to support severe
storms.

Tuesday:
Another wave is still progged to slide east out of OK/AR and
potentially develop into an MCS which may clip the southern
sections of the CWA late Tue afternoon/early evening. There are
some discrepancies on the northward extent of the convection with
the WRF FV3 the furthest north into the I20 corridor and the NAM
Nest and WRF ARW further south across southwestern and south
central GA. SPC does highlight a slight risk across that southern
tier of counties more inline with the NAM nest and ARW.

Stellman

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The long term forecast remains on track. Model guidance continues to
prog a potent disturbance kicking out of the Plains that could bring
yet another round of impactful weather on Thursday afternoon. Bulk
shear ranging from 35 to 60+KT across north Georgia coinciding with
2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will merit a watchful eye in the coming
days for the threat of severe weather. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding the extended forecast.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

VCSH near the metro area and E should continue to clear out
through 2Z. Central GA from CSG to MCN will continue to see a few
tsra with gusty winds through 2-3Z. Low winds and high humidity
may see ceilings fall to bkn006, in particular west-central GA,
however all TAF sites are expected to remain windy enough (4-5kts)
to avoid this. Tomorrow, PoPs across central GA necessitated
Prob30 for MCN and CSG. Exact timeframe uncertain however 20-22Z
is likely.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence in wind speeds and ceilings tonight in Metro.
Medium confidence in PoP timing tomorrow. High confidence all
other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  90 /  50  20  10  30
Atlanta         72  89  71  91 /  50  20  10  50
Blairsville     64  82  61  84 /  30  10  10  40
Cartersville    69  87  69  89 /  50  20  10  50
Columbus        75  94  73  92 /  20  70  20  60
Gainesville     71  87  69  89 /  50  10  10  40
Macon           73  94  72  92 /  30  60  20  50
Rome            69  88  68  89 /  30  20  10  60
Peachtree City  71  90  69  91 /  50  30  20  50
Vidalia         76  95  73  92 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-066>071-074>076-078-079-085-086-097-098-109>113.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ072-
073-080>084-089>096-102>108.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-082045-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
445 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for north and portions of
central Georgia through this evening.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving through north
Georgia and will continue to move southward through the remainder
of the afternoon into the evening. The strongest storms may
produce 50 to 70 mph wind gusts, with isolated gusts near 80 mph
not out of the realm of possibility. Winds of this magnitude may
cause widespread tree and power line damage if they materialize.
Please heed any warnings issued for your area.

A Heat Advisory is in place across central Georgia from noon to 8
PM today due to expected heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range. An Excessive Heat Warning is furthermore in effect in
portions of west-central Georgia until 8 PM with heat indices
approaching 115 degrees. Be sure to take the necessary steps to
stay cool and hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for thunderstorms with
damaging winds in central Georgia on Tuesday.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Sunday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ085-086-097-098-080030-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
739 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Laurens,
northwestern Emanuel, northern Treutlen and eastern Johnson Counties
through 830 PM EDT...

At 739 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from New Home to Minter, and moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Adrian, Kite, Norristown Junction, New Home, Meeks, Blundale,
Orianna, Blackville, Norristown, Gillis Springs, Scott, and Minter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
central and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8247 3246 8280 3279 8264 3280 8250
      3277 8246 3276 8243 3277 8242 3277 8241
      3278 8240 3280 8242 3281 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 289DEG 23KT 3276 8262 3250 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
746 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Temple                  33.74N 85.03W
08/07/2023                   Carroll            GA   Public

            A power pole was blown over onto a
            restaurant and multiple trees were downed
            onto power lines at the intersection of Rome
            St. and Hwy 113.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
750 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Harrison            32.83N 82.68W
08/07/2023                   Washington         GA   Emergency Mngr

            Trees were downed near the intersection of
            Wrightsville Riddleville Rd and News Bridge
            Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Big Haynes Creek P 33.74N 83.93W
08/07/2023                   Rockdale           GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree fell onto power lines in the 3500
            block of Miller Bottom Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
757 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Yatesville        32.89N 84.16W
08/07/2023                   Upson              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed on Logtown Rd near Bentley
            Rd.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
758 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ086-098-080100-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-
758 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Emanuel and
northeastern Treutlen Counties through 900 PM EDT...

At 758 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Norristown Junction, or
near Swainsboro, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Twin City, Stillmore, Garfield, Summertown, Nunez, Three
Points, Dellwood, Modoc, Canoochee, Lexsy, and George L Smith State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3248 8218
      3242 8220 3242 8247 3281 8233 3281 8222
      3280 8220 3281 8218 3281 8215 3266 8208
      3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 273DEG 27KT 3258 8245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH