Severe Thunderstorm Warning 424, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

 - There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of thunderstorms with
   damaging winds across northern Georgia this afternoon and
   evening.

 - A Heat Advisory has been issued for central Georgia from noon
   to 8 PM today, and precautions should be taken to avoid heat
   related illnesses.

 - Thunderstorms activity should continue in the region Tuesday,
   with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather in central
   Georgia.

Today & Tonight:

Today is shaping up to be one of those days where hot conditions
come to a crashing end as severe storms roll through. An
unseasonably strong trough will track through the Ohio Valley
today. This will provide the lift and shear necessary to support
storm development and maintenance. Meanwhile the heat and humidity
ahead of the approaching trough will result in SBCAPE values of
2500 to 4000 j/kg (per HREF guidance), ample fuel for strong
updrafts. Storms are ongoing in an unstable environment across
Tennessee and Kentucky already. As the morning progresses CAM
guidance suggests this activity will gradually congeal into a more
cohesive line, before it becomes more cold pool driven and surges
through northern Georgia this afternoon and evening. Trends in
the HRRR guidance suggest the line of storms will arrive in the
Atlanta Metro between 4 PM and 7 PM. Due largely to the
unseasonably strong shear, there is an above average threat for
widespread damaging winds with the storms today. Wind gusts in the
50 to 70 mph range could occur with the strongest storms, and
peak gusts near 80 mph aren't out of the realm of possibility. The
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to highlight this
potential wind threat. With gusts of this magnitude, tree and
power line damage can be anticipated in the region. Please be sure
to heed any warnings issued for your area. The potential for
other hazards (tornados, large hail or flooding) are lower.

As noted above, heat will be a concern today. The core of the
heat is anticipated south of Interstate 20 where temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s will combine with dewpoints in the mid 70s to
produce heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree range. A Heat
Advisory has been issued to highlight increased potential for heat
related illnesses. Precautions should be taken to stay cool and
hydrated, especially as we are moving through the initial
practices for many fall sports.

The Outlook for Tuesday:

Another weak shortwave will slide east from Texas on Tuesday. As
this wave progresses through Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia it
should interact with a stationary frontal boundary left over from
todays activity. The result should be thunderstorm development
and potentially another MCS. This time though it looks like
central and southern Georgia would be zone favored for peak
activity. Isolated severe weather is possible (particularly
damaging winds) and the SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
portions of Georgia.

With the storms most likely arriving during the morning and
afternoon hours, temperatures could be depressed in central
Georgia on Tuesday. We nudged our temperature forecast down by a
couple of degrees in this area, though additional decreases may be
necessary if model trends favoring rain and cloud cover continue.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

As we approach mid-week and move toward the weekend, the mid-level
ridge that has plagued the Desert Southwest for the better portion
of the summer becomes higher amplitude once again, setting the stage
for yet another round of northwesterly flow across the Southeast and
the potential for multiple rounds of convection supported by ridge
riders. For now, passing disturbances in mid-level flow look to move
eastward pretty much each day Wednesday through Sunday. Thursday's
disturbance is progged to be the strongest/most organized of the
bunch (and may briefly close off), supporting nearly continuous rain
chances through the 48hr period. A rather impressive 850mb jet -- 30
to 40kts of bulk shear, not unlike what we've seen multiple times
over the past month or two -- looks to swing through coincident with
the shortwave disturbance on Thursday, so given ample forecast
MUCAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) it will not be outside of the realm of
possibility to see an isolated strong to severe storm, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts. For now, our area is outlooked in a
Day 3 Marginal Risk which only briefly clips the Thursday time
period (through 8AM), but if conditions hold, would not be surprised
to see this bumped up and carried over in coming days.

The cold front that was the impetus for Monday's storms is forecast
to have stalled out across central Georgia and will linger for the
remainder of the period, serving as yet another focus for convective
activity. The location of it (though less and less impactful with
waning strength) and any remnant boundaries from the previous day's
thunderstorms will influence axes of highest rain chances.

With PWATs in the 1.75-2" range, storms will be efficient rain
producers, and care will need to be taken to monitor potential for
flooding concerns as the week progresses. Rainfall totals from
Wednesday through Friday are between 1-2" for areas along and north
of the I-85/I-20 connector, and as high as 3" in the terrain of
north Georgia. Waterlogged soils from multiple rounds of
precipitation are likely to make downing of trees and branches
easier, possible even in sub-severe storms. Otherwise, progged
afternoon thunderstorm activity will help to tamp down temperatures
even as the airmass moderates, to right around a degree or two of
normal (in the upper-80s to low-90s) each day.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The primary aviation hazard for today will be thunderstorms. A
line of storms should move into northwest Georgia around 19Z
today, then it will push southeast through 04Z Tuesday. This line
may produce hazardous wind gusts in excess of 40 kt at the TAF
sites. Impacts are expected at all the regional TAF sites. Winds
will be gusty from the west between 16Z today and 00Z Tuesday,
with peak gusts in the 20 to 28 kt range. Patchy IFR or LIFR
ceilings may develop between 06Z and 14Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Overall forecast confidence is moderate.
Confidence in the wind, thunderstorm, ceiling and visibility
forecasts is moderate.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  69  91 /  60  20  10  40
Atlanta         72  89  71  91 /  60  30  10  60
Blairsville     64  81  61  85 /  40  10  10  50
Cartersville    69  88  68  90 /  50  30  10  60
Columbus        75  92  73  93 /  40  70  20  60
Gainesville     70  87  69  89 /  50  20  10  50
Macon           73  93  72  93 /  50  60  20  60
Rome            69  88  68  90 /  40  30  20  60
Peachtree City  71  90  69  92 /  60  50  10  50
Vidalia         75  94  74  92 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
GAZ038-039-049>051-058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Albright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-080900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Northern Georgia has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of
thunderstorms with damaging winds between 3 PM and 10 PM today.
This risk area includes the Atlanta Metro. The strongest storms
may produce 50 to 70 mph wind gusts, with isolated gusts near 80
mph not out of the realm of possibility. Winds of this magnitude
may cause widespread tree and power line damage if they
materialize. Please heed any warnings issued for your area.

A Heat Advisory is in place across central Georgia from noon to 8
PM today due to expected heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range. Be sure to take the necessary steps to stay cool and
hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for thunderstorms with
damaging winds in central Georgia on Tuesday.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Sunday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1028 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Rome                34.26N 85.16W
08/06/2023                   Floyd              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down in 20 block of Ross St.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1049 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Bill Arp           33.65N 84.82W
08/06/2023                   Douglas            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2
            SW Bill Arp. Tree down on 5000 block of Hwy
            5.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1050 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Fairplay           33.64N 84.83W
08/06/2023                   Douglas            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down in 6000 block of Hwy 5.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1124 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Walker Mill       33.30N 84.15W
08/06/2023                   Spalding           GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down at 2000 block of Locust Grove Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1131 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Williamson         33.20N 84.39W
08/06/2023                   Spalding           GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down in 900 block of Yarbrough Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1133 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Experiment         33.25N 84.30W
08/06/2023                   Spalding           GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down at Newnan Rd and 85 Connector.

&&