Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

- A widespread wind damage threat is evolving this afternoon and
  could continue through late evening across the forecast area.
  SPC has included an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for much of
  the area. Tornadoes will be possible, mainly across Northern GA,
  however, the wind threat should be considered the dominate
  impact.

- An Excessive Heat warning has been issued for portions of Middle
  GA. Heat index values are in excess of 110 for several counties.
  A heat advisory is in effect for much of the remainder of
  Central GA through 8 pm.

- Thunderstorms are again in the forecast for Tuesday with a
  Slight Risk in effect for much of Middle GA. Damaging winds will
  be the main concern.

Today and tonight:
A lot happening this afternoon and in the short term. Lets start
with heat.  Mid 90 temps and upper 70 dewpoints across West
central GA have led to heat index values exceeding 110 in several
locations so a Excessive Heat warning was introduced through early
evening for a portion of the Heat Advisory area.

Severe threat... 18z FFC sounding is juicy to say the least.
Observed 5390 J/KG CAPE, nearly 1500 DCape and sufficient shear in
place to support organized severe storms. Similarly to what we
experienced a few weeks ago across North GA not out of the
question given that amount of instability and slightly more jet
dynamics in play this time around. Expect the clusters of storms
across northern GA and Northern AL to congeal into more of a line
that shifts through the region later this afternoon. Damaging
winds with that line and within that line would be expected to be
widespread given the status of the environment its moving into.
Analyzed helicity values on the margin for some tornadoes so a few
cannot be ruled out, however, the main focus should be on the
damaging wind threat through this evening. Expect that line to
continue south through the CWA. There is some uncertainty with the
intensity of the line as it reaches the area south of
Macon/Columbus but certainly unstable enough to support severe
storms.

Tuesday:
Another wave is still progged to slide east out of OK/AR and
potentially develop into an MCS which may clip the southern
sections of the CWA late Tue afternoon/early evening. There are
some discrepancies on the northward extent of the convection with
the WRF FV3 the furthest north into the I20 corridor and the NAM
Nest and WRF ARW further south across southwestern and south
central GA. SPC does highlight a slight risk across that southern
tier of counties more inline with the NAM nest and ARW.

Stellman

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The long term forecast remains on track. Model guidance continues to
prog a potent disturbance kicking out of the Plains that could bring
yet another round of impactful weather on Thursday afternoon. Bulk
shear ranging from 35 to 60+KT across north Georgia coinciding with
2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will merit a watchful eye in the coming
days for the threat of severe weather. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding the extended forecast.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Main concerns will be thunderstorms and timing. Now that a solid
line of storms appears to be taking shape we can put a little more
confidence on timing for the sites later this afternoon/evening.
CAMS still struggling with any redevelopment behind the main line
and if there will be any but for now will assume the airmass
stabilizes behind the main surge.
Added prob30 for Tuesday as most convection is forecast to remain
across central GA sites however there is some guidance suggesting
some development post 18z across metro sites. Winds outside of
TS will remain west  and gusty this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precip timing
high confidence all other elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  90 /  60  10  20  30
Atlanta         72  89  71  91 /  50  30  20  50
Blairsville     64  82  61  84 /  50  10  10  40
Cartersville    69  87  69  89 /  50  20  20  50
Columbus        75  94  73  92 /  20  60  40  60
Gainesville     71  87  69  89 /  60  10  10  40
Macon           73  94  72  92 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            69  88  68  89 /  50  20  20  60
Peachtree City  71  90  69  91 /  40  40  30  50
Vidalia         76  95  73  92 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ072-
073-080>084-089>096-102>108.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-080900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Northern Georgia has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of
thunderstorms with damaging winds between 3 PM and 10 PM today.
This risk area includes the Atlanta Metro. The strongest storms
may produce 50 to 70 mph wind gusts, with isolated gusts near 80
mph not out of the realm of possibility. Winds of this magnitude
may cause widespread tree and power line damage if they
materialize. Please heed any warnings issued for your area.

A Heat Advisory is in place across central Georgia from noon to 8
PM today due to expected heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range. Be sure to take the necessary steps to stay cool and
hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for thunderstorms with
damaging winds in central Georgia on Tuesday.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Sunday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ074>076-072045-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-
416 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Glascock,
central Washington and central Jefferson Counties through 445 PM
EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Hebron, or 7 miles
southwest of Sandersville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Sandersville, Louisville, Gibson, Wrens, Davisboro, Tennille,
Stapleton, Oconee, Avera, Mitchell, Deepstep, Edge Hill, Edgehill,
Downs, Warthen, Grange, Stapletons Crossroads, Agricola, Stellaville,
and Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 8239 3284 8298 3285 8299 3301 8301
      3328 8260 3319 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 254DEG 28KT 3293 8291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
418 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW New England       34.94N 85.51W
08/07/2023                   Dade               GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was reported down on Hales Gap Rd at
            Murphy Hollow Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
420 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE New England       34.90N 85.45W
08/07/2023                   Dade               GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed on Scenic Hwy near the
            Lookout Mountain Flight Park.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Mossy Creek         34.54N 83.74W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed on Hood Acres Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Cleveland           34.58N 83.76W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed at Highway 129 and
            Appalachian Pkwy.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ030-031-041-072100-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Paulding, Haralson and Polk Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 426 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Mars Hills, or 8 miles
northwest of Buchanan, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cedartown, Buchanan, Rockmart, Tallapoosa, Aragon, Fish Creek, Etna,
Eubank Lake, Esom Hill, Antioch, Van Wert, Draketown, and Felton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8496 3381 8504 3381 8505 3377 8505
      3374 8535 3389 8539 3402 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 258DEG 33KT 3385 8532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH