Severe Thunderstorm Warning 434, NWS Atlanta, GA

768 
WWUS52 KFFC 072053
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
453 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAC055-115-129-233-072102-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0434.000000T0000Z-230807T2100Z/
Floyd GA-Gordon GA-Polk GA-Chattooga GA-
453 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FLOYD...WESTERN GORDON...
NORTHWESTERN POLK AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM EDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has been upgraded 
to account for more severe conditions in the warned area. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Floyd, Godron, Polk and Chattooga counties. 

LAT...LON 3402 8540 3450 8550 3459 8492 3405 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 266DEG 29KT 3436 8488 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

- A widespread wind damage threat is evolving this afternoon and
  could continue through late evening across the forecast area.
  SPC has included an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for much of
  the area. Tornadoes will be possible, mainly across Northern GA,
  however, the wind threat should be considered the dominate
  impact.

- An Excessive Heat warning has been issued for portions of Middle
  GA. Heat index values are in excess of 110 for several counties.
  A heat advisory is in effect for much of the remainder of
  Central GA through 8 pm.

- Thunderstorms are again in the forecast for Tuesday with a
  Slight Risk in effect for much of Middle GA. Damaging winds will
  be the main concern.

Today and tonight:
A lot happening this afternoon and in the short term. Lets start
with heat.  Mid 90 temps and upper 70 dewpoints across West
central GA have led to heat index values exceeding 110 in several
locations so a Excessive Heat warning was introduced through early
evening for a portion of the Heat Advisory area.

Severe threat... 18z FFC sounding is juicy to say the least.
Observed 5390 J/KG CAPE, nearly 1500 DCape and sufficient shear in
place to support organized severe storms. Similarly to what we
experienced a few weeks ago across North GA not out of the
question given that amount of instability and slightly more jet
dynamics in play this time around. Expect the clusters of storms
across northern GA and Northern AL to congeal into more of a line
that shifts through the region later this afternoon. Damaging
winds with that line and within that line would be expected to be
widespread given the status of the environment its moving into.
Analyzed helicity values on the margin for some tornadoes so a few
cannot be ruled out, however, the main focus should be on the
damaging wind threat through this evening. Expect that line to
continue south through the CWA. There is some uncertainty with the
intensity of the line as it reaches the area south of
Macon/Columbus but certainly unstable enough to support severe
storms.

Tuesday:
Another wave is still progged to slide east out of OK/AR and
potentially develop into an MCS which may clip the southern
sections of the CWA late Tue afternoon/early evening. There are
some discrepancies on the northward extent of the convection with
the WRF FV3 the furthest north into the I20 corridor and the NAM
Nest and WRF ARW further south across southwestern and south
central GA. SPC does highlight a slight risk across that southern
tier of counties more inline with the NAM nest and ARW.

Stellman

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The long term forecast remains on track. Model guidance continues to
prog a potent disturbance kicking out of the Plains that could bring
yet another round of impactful weather on Thursday afternoon. Bulk
shear ranging from 35 to 60+KT across north Georgia coinciding with
2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will merit a watchful eye in the coming
days for the threat of severe weather. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding the extended forecast.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Main concerns will be thunderstorms and timing. Now that a solid
line of storms appears to be taking shape we can put a little more
confidence on timing for the sites later this afternoon/evening.
CAMS still struggling with any redevelopment behind the main line
and if there will be any but for now will assume the airmass
stabilizes behind the main surge.
Added prob30 for Tuesday as most convection is forecast to remain
across central GA sites however there is some guidance suggesting
some development post 18z across metro sites. Winds outside of
TS will remain west  and gusty this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precip timing
high confidence all other elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  90 /  60  10  20  30
Atlanta         72  89  71  91 /  50  30  20  50
Blairsville     64  82  61  84 /  50  10  10  40
Cartersville    69  87  69  89 /  50  20  20  50
Columbus        75  94  73  92 /  20  60  40  60
Gainesville     71  87  69  89 /  60  10  10  40
Macon           73  94  72  92 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            69  88  68  89 /  50  20  20  60
Peachtree City  71  90  69  91 /  40  40  30  50
Vidalia         76  95  73  92 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ072-
073-080>084-089>096-102>108.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-080900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Northern Georgia has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of
thunderstorms with damaging winds between 3 PM and 10 PM today.
This risk area includes the Atlanta Metro. The strongest storms
may produce 50 to 70 mph wind gusts, with isolated gusts near 80
mph not out of the realm of possibility. Winds of this magnitude
may cause widespread tree and power line damage if they
materialize. Please heed any warnings issued for your area.

A Heat Advisory is in place across central Georgia from noon to 8
PM today due to expected heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range. Be sure to take the necessary steps to stay cool and
hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for thunderstorms with
damaging winds in central Georgia on Tuesday.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Sunday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
350 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ061-062-073>076-083-084-072015-
Wilkinson GA-Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Hancock GA-Baldwin GA-
Glascock GA-Warren GA-Twiggs GA-
350 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Baldwin, northern Wilkinson, southern Warren, north central Twiggs,
southeastern Hancock, southwestern Glascock, Washington and west
central Jefferson Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Pancras, or 9 miles
north of Irwinton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Sandersville, Irwinton, Gordon, Davisboro, Tennille, Ivey, McIntyre,
Toomsboro, Oconee, Mitchell, Deepstep, Riddleville, Edge Hill,
Edgehill, Hamburg State Park, Shoals, Downs, Jewell, Warthen, and
Linton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8335 3288 8341 3331 8277 3313 8257
      3289 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 252DEG 24KT 3295 8317

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Cole City           34.97N 85.52W
08/07/2023                   Dade               GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree and power lines were downed on
            Scratch Ankle Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ021-022-033-072030-
North Fulton GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
359 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Cherokee and northwestern Forsyth Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Free Home, or 8 miles
west of Cumming, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Free Home, Matt, Drew, Silver City, Holbrook, Lathemtown,
Ducktown, Coal Mountain, and Hightower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 8410 3424 8404 3414 8409 3415 8426
      3416 8430 3418 8435 3429 8436 3434 8414
      3434 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 268DEG 25KT 3424 8428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hooker                  34.98N 85.43W
08/07/2023                   Dade               GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed on Hooker Cemetery Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Epworth           34.97N 84.39W
08/07/2023                   Fannin             GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree and power lines were reported down on
            Cherokee Lane.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
410 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Blue Ridge              34.86N 84.32W
08/07/2023                   Fannin             GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was reported down on Mineral Springs
            Rd in Blue Ridge.

&&