Severe Thunderstorm Warning 437, NWS Atlanta, GA

163 
WWUS52 KFFC 072058
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
458 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAC121-072108-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0437.000000T0000Z-230807T2115Z/
Fulton GA-
458 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorms which prompted the warning have moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
north central Georgia.

LAT...LON 3368 8432 3377 8432 3383 8427 3394 8425
      3397 8401 3397 8400 3387 8394 3372 8406
      3367 8409 3367 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 260DEG 29KT 3374 8426 

$$

GAC089-135-072115-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0437.000000T0000Z-230807T2115Z/
DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
458 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR DEKALB AND SOUTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES...

At 458 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Belvedere Park,
or near Decatur, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Peachtree Corners, Snellville,
Lilburn, Norcross, Doraville, Clarkston, Stone Mountain, Avondale
Estates, Grayson, Lithonia, Pine Lake, Tucker, Belvedere Park, North
Decatur, Candler-Mcafee, Druid Hills, and Mountain Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8432 3377 8432 3383 8427 3394 8425
      3397 8401 3397 8400 3387 8394 3372 8406
      3367 8409 3367 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 260DEG 29KT 3374 8426 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

- A widespread wind damage threat is evolving this afternoon and
  could continue through late evening across the forecast area.
  SPC has included an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for much of
  the area. Tornadoes will be possible, mainly across Northern GA,
  however, the wind threat should be considered the dominate
  impact.

- An Excessive Heat warning has been issued for portions of Middle
  GA. Heat index values are in excess of 110 for several counties.
  A heat advisory is in effect for much of the remainder of
  Central GA through 8 pm.

- Thunderstorms are again in the forecast for Tuesday with a
  Slight Risk in effect for much of Middle GA. Damaging winds will
  be the main concern.

Today and tonight:
A lot happening this afternoon and in the short term. Lets start
with heat.  Mid 90 temps and upper 70 dewpoints across West
central GA have led to heat index values exceeding 110 in several
locations so a Excessive Heat warning was introduced through early
evening for a portion of the Heat Advisory area.

Severe threat... 18z FFC sounding is juicy to say the least.
Observed 5390 J/KG CAPE, nearly 1500 DCape and sufficient shear in
place to support organized severe storms. Similarly to what we
experienced a few weeks ago across North GA not out of the
question given that amount of instability and slightly more jet
dynamics in play this time around. Expect the clusters of storms
across northern GA and Northern AL to congeal into more of a line
that shifts through the region later this afternoon. Damaging
winds with that line and within that line would be expected to be
widespread given the status of the environment its moving into.
Analyzed helicity values on the margin for some tornadoes so a few
cannot be ruled out, however, the main focus should be on the
damaging wind threat through this evening. Expect that line to
continue south through the CWA. There is some uncertainty with the
intensity of the line as it reaches the area south of
Macon/Columbus but certainly unstable enough to support severe
storms.

Tuesday:
Another wave is still progged to slide east out of OK/AR and
potentially develop into an MCS which may clip the southern
sections of the CWA late Tue afternoon/early evening. There are
some discrepancies on the northward extent of the convection with
the WRF FV3 the furthest north into the I20 corridor and the NAM
Nest and WRF ARW further south across southwestern and south
central GA. SPC does highlight a slight risk across that southern
tier of counties more inline with the NAM nest and ARW.

Stellman

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The long term forecast remains on track. Model guidance continues to
prog a potent disturbance kicking out of the Plains that could bring
yet another round of impactful weather on Thursday afternoon. Bulk
shear ranging from 35 to 60+KT across north Georgia coinciding with
2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will merit a watchful eye in the coming
days for the threat of severe weather. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding the extended forecast.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Main concerns will be thunderstorms and timing. Now that a solid
line of storms appears to be taking shape we can put a little more
confidence on timing for the sites later this afternoon/evening.
CAMS still struggling with any redevelopment behind the main line
and if there will be any but for now will assume the airmass
stabilizes behind the main surge.
Added prob30 for Tuesday as most convection is forecast to remain
across central GA sites however there is some guidance suggesting
some development post 18z across metro sites. Winds outside of
TS will remain west  and gusty this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precip timing
high confidence all other elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  90 /  60  10  20  30
Atlanta         72  89  71  91 /  50  30  20  50
Blairsville     64  82  61  84 /  50  10  10  40
Cartersville    69  87  69  89 /  50  20  20  50
Columbus        75  94  73  92 /  20  60  40  60
Gainesville     71  87  69  89 /  60  10  10  40
Macon           73  94  72  92 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            69  88  68  89 /  50  20  20  60
Peachtree City  71  90  69  91 /  40  40  30  50
Vidalia         76  95  73  92 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ072-
073-080>084-089>096-102>108.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-080900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
453 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Northern Georgia has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of
thunderstorms with damaging winds between 3 PM and 10 PM today.
This risk area includes the Atlanta Metro. The strongest storms
may produce 50 to 70 mph wind gusts, with isolated gusts near 80
mph not out of the realm of possibility. Winds of this magnitude
may cause widespread tree and power line damage if they
materialize. Please heed any warnings issued for your area.

A Heat Advisory is in place across central Georgia from noon to 8
PM today due to expected heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range. Be sure to take the necessary steps to stay cool and
hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for thunderstorms with
damaging winds in central Georgia on Tuesday.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Sunday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
424 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Mossy Creek         34.54N 83.74W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed on Hood Acres Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Cleveland           34.58N 83.76W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed at Highway 129 and
            Appalachian Pkwy.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ030-031-041-072100-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Paulding, Haralson and Polk Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 426 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Mars Hills, or 8 miles
northwest of Buchanan, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cedartown, Buchanan, Rockmart, Tallapoosa, Aragon, Fish Creek, Etna,
Eubank Lake, Esom Hill, Antioch, Van Wert, Draketown, and Felton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8496 3381 8504 3381 8505 3377 8505
      3374 8535 3389 8539 3402 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 258DEG 33KT 3385 8532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
428 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SSW Sautee            34.64N 83.69W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree was downed at Duncan Bridge Rd at
            Primrose Dr.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
431 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Robertstown        34.72N 83.75W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree fell onto power lines on Myra Branch
            Rd at McConnell Rd and caught fire.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
432 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Sautee            34.66N 83.70W
08/07/2023                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            A tree fell into the roadway on Duncan
            Bridge Rd near Mt. Yonah Elementary School.

&&