Severe Thunderstorm Warning 458, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
544 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

A line of severe thunderstorms has moved into northwest Georgia
and is spreading into the western metro Atlanta area. Winds
associated with this line of storms are indicated to be as high as
70 mph, and some isolated gusts as high as 80 mph cannot be ruled
out. These winds have the potential to cause widespread damage to
trees and powerlines, and could cause structure damage, as well.
With ample MUCAPE values as high as 5000-6000 J/kg and DCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, the threat for very strong, damaging winds will
continue as this line continues south and eastward through the
late afternoon and evening hours. Please heed any warnings
issued for your area and shelter in a safe location secure from
the winds.

King

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Key Messages:

- A widespread wind damage threat is evolving this afternoon and
  could continue through late evening across the forecast area.
  SPC has included an Enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for much of
  the area. Tornadoes will be possible, mainly across Northern GA,
  however, the wind threat should be considered the dominate
  impact.

- An Excessive Heat warning has been issued for portions of Middle
  GA. Heat index values are in excess of 110 for several counties.
  A heat advisory is in effect for much of the remainder of
  Central GA through 8 pm.

- Thunderstorms are again in the forecast for Tuesday with a
  Slight Risk in effect for much of Middle GA. Damaging winds will
  be the main concern.

Today and tonight:
A lot happening this afternoon and in the short term. Lets start
with heat.  Mid 90 temps and upper 70 dewpoints across West
central GA have led to heat index values exceeding 110 in several
locations so a Excessive Heat warning was introduced through early
evening for a portion of the Heat Advisory area.

Severe threat... 18z FFC sounding is juicy to say the least.
Observed 5390 J/KG CAPE, nearly 1500 DCape and sufficient shear in
place to support organized severe storms. Similarly to what we
experienced a few weeks ago across North GA not out of the
question given that amount of instability and slightly more jet
dynamics in play this time around. Expect the clusters of storms
across northern GA and Northern AL to congeal into more of a line
that shifts through the region later this afternoon. Damaging
winds with that line and within that line would be expected to be
widespread given the status of the environment its moving into.
Analyzed helicity values on the margin for some tornadoes so a few
cannot be ruled out, however, the main focus should be on the
damaging wind threat through this evening. Expect that line to
continue south through the CWA. There is some uncertainty with the
intensity of the line as it reaches the area south of
Macon/Columbus but certainly unstable enough to support severe
storms.

Tuesday:
Another wave is still progged to slide east out of OK/AR and
potentially develop into an MCS which may clip the southern
sections of the CWA late Tue afternoon/early evening. There are
some discrepancies on the northward extent of the convection with
the WRF FV3 the furthest north into the I20 corridor and the NAM
Nest and WRF ARW further south across southwestern and south
central GA. SPC does highlight a slight risk across that southern
tier of counties more inline with the NAM nest and ARW.

Stellman

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The long term forecast remains on track. Model guidance continues to
prog a potent disturbance kicking out of the Plains that could bring
yet another round of impactful weather on Thursday afternoon. Bulk
shear ranging from 35 to 60+KT across north Georgia coinciding with
2000-3000+ J/kg of SBCAPE will merit a watchful eye in the coming
days for the threat of severe weather. See the previous
discussion below for more details regarding the extended forecast.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Main concerns will be thunderstorms and timing. Now that a solid
line of storms appears to be taking shape we can put a little more
confidence on timing for the sites later this afternoon/evening.
CAMS still struggling with any redevelopment behind the main line
and if there will be any but for now will assume the airmass
stabilizes behind the main surge.
Added prob30 for Tuesday as most convection is forecast to remain
across central GA sites however there is some guidance suggesting
some development post 18z across metro sites. Winds outside of
TS will remain west  and gusty this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precip timing
high confidence all other elements

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  69  90 /  70  10  20  30
Atlanta         72  89  71  91 /  70  30  20  50
Blairsville     64  82  61  84 /  60  10  10  40
Cartersville    69  87  69  89 /  70  20  20  50
Columbus        75  94  73  92 /  30  60  40  60
Gainesville     71  87  69  89 /  70  10  10  40
Macon           73  94  72  92 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            69  88  68  89 /  60  20  20  60
Peachtree City  71  90  69  91 /  60  40  30  50
Vidalia         76  95  73  92 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
058>062-066>071-074>076-078-079-085-086-097-098-109>113.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ072-
073-080>084-089>096-102>108.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-082045-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
445 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for north and portions of
central Georgia through this evening.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is moving through north
Georgia and will continue to move southward through the remainder
of the afternoon into the evening. The strongest storms may
produce 50 to 70 mph wind gusts, with isolated gusts near 80 mph
not out of the realm of possibility. Winds of this magnitude may
cause widespread tree and power line damage if they materialize.
Please heed any warnings issued for your area.

A Heat Advisory is in place across central Georgia from noon to 8
PM today due to expected heat indices in the 105 to 110 degree
range. An Excessive Heat Warning is furthermore in effect in
portions of west-central Georgia until 8 PM with heat indices
approaching 115 degrees. Be sure to take the necessary steps to
stay cool and hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for thunderstorms with
damaging winds in central Georgia on Tuesday.

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue through next
Sunday. The highest storm chances will occur during the afternoon
and evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
618 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ046-048-056>058-067-068-070-072245-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Rockdale GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-Newton GA-
Pike GA-Henry GA-
618 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Spalding,
southeastern Rockdale, northern Meriwether, northern Pike, southern
Henry, western Butts, southwestern Newton and northwestern Lamar
Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 618 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms along a line extending
from Covington to near Sunny Side to near Alvaton, and moving east at
60 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind preceding rain or lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds will occur before any rain or lightning. Do
         not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
         Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Griffin, McDonough, Covington, Jackson, Zebulon, Greenville, Hampton,
Locust Grove, Oxford, Porterdale, Luthersville, Jenkinsburg,
Williamson, Orchard Hill, Haralson, Sunny Side, Lone Oak, Gay, East
Griffin, and Concord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central, north central and west central Georgia. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until midnight EDT for west
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 8471 3322 8451 3326 8450 3326 8443
      3329 8442 3332 8439 3334 8439 3336 8433
      3365 8392 3363 8381 3324 8397 3309 8432
      3302 8485 3319 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 283DEG 51KT 3358 8384 3335 8425 3317 8452

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
620 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ039-049>051-060>062-072245-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
Greene GA-
620 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Warren, southeastern
Morgan, central Putnam, northern Hancock, Greene, Taliaferro and
southern Wilkes Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms along a line extending
from Loce to near Sandy Cross to Reynolds at Lake Oconee, and moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind preceding rain or lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds will occur before any rain or lightning. Do
         not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
         Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eatonton, Washington, Madison, Greensboro, Warrenton, Sparta,
Crawfordville, Union Point, Woodville, White Plains, Siloam, Norwood,
Buckhead, Sharon, Camak, Phoenix, Reynolds at Lake Oconee, Liberty,
Springfield, and Veazey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
north central Georgia. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until midnight EDT for central, northeastern and east central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8251 3364 8256 3365 8258 3363 8258
      3364 8259 3363 8261 3363 8262 3362 8262
      3361 8265 3346 8259 3341 8256 3319 8311
      3325 8335 3355 8348 3371 8304 3369 8301
      3374 8295 3382 8259 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 302DEG 32KT 3372 8250 3359 8286 3341 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WNW Chamblee          33.90N 84.33W
08/07/2023  M55 MPH          DeKalb             GA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW1905 Atlanta.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

GAZ083-084-095>097-072300-
Wilkinson GA-Houston GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
625 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Laurens, south central Wilkinson, southern Twiggs, northern Bleckley
and northeastern Houston Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 625 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Tarversville, or 12
miles southwest of Jeffersonville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jeffersonville, Dudley, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Robins AFB,
Tarversville, District Path, Bullard, Goldsboro, Rebie, and Cary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8355 3263 8358 3272 8314 3259 8306
      3245 8310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 263DEG 25KT 3255 8348

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
627 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Stark             33.32N 83.86W
08/07/2023                   Butts              GA   Public

            A tree was downed on Stark Rd at Scout
            Island Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
629 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Hogansville       33.19N 84.91W
08/07/2023                   Troup              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Sheet metal roofing panels were removed from
            an outbuilding.

&&