Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Current conditions are mostly calm for all but Far North GA and
the Southeast CWA. Showers in the Southeast CWA are remnants of
thunderstorms from last night, while the stuff up north is the
remnants of the MCS which made its way across TN. The showers
across North GA should continue to fade over the next several
hours as they enter a region with lower instability. Confidence is
low in precipitation initiation across the ATL metro, however as
diurnal destabilization occurs we should see thunderstorm coverage
increase across central GA. Given potential CAPE values of
~3000J/Kg across central GA this afternoon, a few storms may
become strong to severe with gusty winds being the primary hazard.
Furthermore, should any outflow boundaries become robust, would
not be surprised by MCS formation across Central and into Southern
GA. Conditions behind this disturbance should usher in dryer
Northerly flow.

A heat advisory is in effect for much of central GA today where
apparent temperatures could climb over 105. Showers and
thunderstorms may be able to cool off some of the area, however
with dewpoints in the 70s it is going to be steamy out. Once the
disturbance makes its way through our area by tonight, drier
conditions set in and heat indices drop for Monday afternoon.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

No major forecast concerns or significant weather impacts expected
in the long term period.

Pattern beyond Monday still defined by NW flow aloft. Earlier
signal in yesterday's medium range guidance that upper ridge would
build east into Georgia late this week starting to wane in more
recent model cycles. In fact, some indication the weakness in the
ridge may form into a weak tropical low west of the FL peninsula
by Saturday. Appears deep moisture will return Tuesday and remain
in place through next weekend.

MCS development appears likely Tuesday thru Friday but timing
will be tricky and not captured in global, non-convective
allowing models. Between MCS, MCV afternoon redevelopment and
general pulse thunderstorms, will likely see 30-50% coverage at
least during the afternoons and evenings. In addition to
traditional convective threats, heavy rainfall and flooding may
also occur in this pattern. Heat risk could crop back up again
late this week as well.

A tropical wave near 50W in the Atlantic basin will likely
develop into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two but is not
expected to impact the CONUS coastline.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Mostly VFR conditions continue this morning with a few isolated
shra across far northern GA, drifting southward through the day.
TSRA should begin to ramp up with daytime heating, leading to
TEMPOs across area. Things clear out mostly tonight, however some
patchy fog is possible for East and East Central GA tonight. Have
included this in MCN and AHN TAFs. Overall, confidence in storm
coverage is lower towards the ATL sites and increases to the
southeast. Winds will remain W to NW at 5-10kts outside of TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence in TSRA coverage and timing in the metro area.
Medium confidence in all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  91  69  89 /  30  10  10  10
Atlanta         72  94  72  93 /  20  10   0  10
Blairsville     63  86  61  83 /  10  10  10  20
Cartersville    69  93  68  90 /  10   0   0  10
Columbus        73  96  74  96 /  20  10   0  10
Gainesville     70  91  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
Macon           73  94  72  93 /  30  10  10  10
Rome            71  93  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
Peachtree City  69  94  69  93 /  20  10   0  10
Vidalia         73  91  73  93 /  40  30  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
for GAZ039-049>051-058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
with most of the activity shifting to middle Georgia after sunset.
Some of the storms will be strong and could even be briefly severe
with damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Elevated heat risk is also expected over middle Georgia this
afternoon with heat index values up to 106 expected. A heat
advisory is in effect through 9 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Monday
and Tuesday with increasing coverage possible later this week.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with very heavy
rain, lightning and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1254 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ042-052-301730-
Carroll GA-Heard GA-
1254 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Carroll
and northwestern Heard Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 1254 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Trickem, or 11 miles
southeast of Heflin, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Bowdon, Ephesus, Centralhatchee, Roopville, Frolona,
Texas, Tyus, Blackjack Mountain, Roosterville, and Waresville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 8533 3357 8501 3320 8518 3324 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 289DEG 31KT 3354 8543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ044-053-054-301745-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-South Fulton GA-
117 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Fayette,
northeastern Coweta and south central Fulton Counties through 145 PM
EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Tyrone, or 7 miles west
of Fayetteville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, City of South Fulton, Peachtree City, Union City,
Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto, Cannongate, and Sandy Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3349 8470 3359 8466 3358 8452 3347 8442
      3333 8449 3337 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 330DEG 20KT 3348 8459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
209 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ053-054-301845-
Fayette GA-Coweta GA-
209 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Fayette and
eastern Coweta Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 208 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Palmetto, or 9 miles
north of Newnan, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, Peachtree City, Tyrone, Senoia, Brooks, Sharpsburg, Turin,
Haralson, Starrs Mill, Cannongate, Thomas Crossroads, and Madras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 8477 3351 8459 3330 8441 3329 8442
      3327 8443 3326 8447 3326 8450 3325 8450
      3325 8451 3322 8459 3322 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 328DEG 22KT 3350 8472

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH