Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have blossomed over the area
in the last hour, with activity now south of the metro Atlanta
area. A few storms have reached severe criteria, producing strong
winds and small hail. Central GA remains in a Marginal (level 1 of
5) Risk of severe storms. Temperatures warmed quickly today, with
Heat Index values soaring above the 105 Advisory criteria over the
southern third to half of the CWA. Although the Heat Advisory does
remain in place at this time for the southeast CWA, rain-cooled
conditions have contributed to early cancellation for the western
portions of the state. Expect adjustments to the Advisory as
needed through the afternoon.

In the wake of the storms, drier air returns to the state with a
quieter forecast. Expect slightly cooler morning temperatures and
lower dew points, which will keep a Heat Advisory at bay for
Monday.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

The extended forecast continues with no major forecast concerns or
significant weather impacts expected.

Overall pattern in the extended is still defined by NW flow aloft.
Models showing upper level ridge over TX will build slowly east
through day 7. The over all NW flow starts off fairly dry but by
Wed/Thu we will see waves moving SE out of the Northern/Central
Plains pushing into GA with the upper level NWLY flow.

We could see some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as there is
still some moisture around the area but the best MCS development
appears likely Wednesday thru the weekend. Between MCS, MCV
afternoon redevelopment and general pulse thunderstorms, will likely
see 30-50% coverage at least during the afternoons and evenings. In
addition to traditional convective threats, heavy rainfall and
flooding may also occur in this pattern. Heat risk could crop back
up again late this week as well.

VSS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR associated in/near convection
this afternoon. TSRA has ramped up with daytime heating, but
largely stayed south of northern TAF sites. Expect main TS concern
to be at CSG and MCN through the next few hours. Patchy morning fog
may be an issue where convection holds into the late evening.
Gusty winds in convection, but otherwise, NW winds at 5-10kt will
become more N Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         73  95  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     63  86  60  83 /   0  10   0  10
Cartersville    68  92  67  90 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        74  96  74  95 /  20  10   0  10
Gainesville     70  92  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
Macon           72  95  72  93 /  30  10  10  10
Rome            70  93  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  70  95  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  92  74  92 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ039-049>051-
058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
with most of the activity shifting to middle Georgia after sunset.
Some of the storms will be strong and could even be briefly severe
with damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Elevated heat risk is also expected over middle Georgia this
afternoon with heat index values up to 106 expected. A heat
advisory is in effect through 9 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Monday
and Tuesday with increasing coverage possible later this week.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with very heavy
rain, lightning and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Smiths Crossroad    33.00N 85.02W
07/30/2023                   Troup              GA   Public

            Tree down across I-85 in Troup county.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ071-081-082-302000-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bibb, southern
Monroe and northeastern Crawford Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Bolingbroke, or near
Forsyth, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Forsyth, Roberta, Payne, Culloden, Payne City, Lake
Tobesofkee, Bolingbroke, Russellville, Brent, Musella, Knoxville,
Wesleyan, Lizella, Arkwright, Sandy Point, and Plant Scherer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 8407 3293 8411 3293 8406 3295 8405
      3295 8404 3297 8404 3310 8379 3294 8370
      3292 8370 3290 8367 3280 8358 3273 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 321DEG 17KT 3294 8389

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ103-104-302000-
Sumter GA-Webster GA-
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Webster and west
central Sumter Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Preston, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Preston, Plains, Weston, Kimbrough, Centerpoint, Dumas, and
Leveretts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8463 3197 8464 3198 8466 3198 8464
      3199 8465 3203 8465 3203 8464 3205 8464
      3214 8453 3213 8451 3201 8435 3192 8439
      3197 8444 3193 8444 3192 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 320DEG 14KT 3203 8455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ098-112-302015-
Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
330 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Treutlen and
northern Montgomery Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Soperton, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Soperton, Mount Vernon, Ailey, Tarrytown, Lothair, Barnhill, Zaidee,
Gillis Springs, and Kibbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8243 3218 8257 3226 8264 3228 8265
      3229 8264 3230 8267 3236 8273 3237 8272
      3239 8272 3241 8270 3250 8255 3250 8253
      3238 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 320DEG 14KT 3238 8260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ090-091-102-103-302015-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
332 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Marion,
southern Chattahoochee, Stewart and western Webster Counties through
415 PM EDT...

At 332 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Zellobee to near Lakepoint Resort State Park, and
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Cusseta, Richland, Seminole, Charles, Christopher,
Kimbrough, Westville, Brooklyn, Renfroe, Draneville, Manta, Zellobee,
Troutman, Omaha, Sanford, Church Hill, Jamestown/South Fort Moore,
Louvale, and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8491 3195 8496 3198 8496 3197 8504
      3199 8507 3202 8505 3209 8504 3213 8506
      3218 8501 3220 8496 3222 8498 3222 8493
      3225 8492 3226 8489 3230 8493 3240 8467
      3223 8443 3221 8443 3205 8465 3192 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 301DEG 23KT 3234 8461 3201 8504

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ096-107>109-302030-
Wilcox GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
348 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Dodge,
Pulaski, northwestern Wilcox and southwestern Bleckley Counties
through 430 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Mock Springs, or 7
miles southwest of Hawkinsville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hawkinsville, Pineview, Dubois, Browndale, Cedar Creek, Mobley
Crossing, Mock Springs, Pope City, Baileys Park, Ocmulgee Banks,
Finleyson, Wallace, Pleasant View, Hartford, and Pulaski State
Prison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8361 3230 8361 3238 8354 3230 8325
      3195 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 304DEG 21KT 3221 8357

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH