Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms have blossomed over the area
in the last hour, with activity now south of the metro Atlanta
area. A few storms have reached severe criteria, producing strong
winds and small hail. Central GA remains in a Marginal (level 1 of
5) Risk of severe storms. Temperatures warmed quickly today, with
Heat Index values soaring above the 105 Advisory criteria over the
southern third to half of the CWA. Although the Heat Advisory does
remain in place at this time for the southeast CWA, rain-cooled
conditions have contributed to early cancellation for the western
portions of the state. Expect adjustments to the Advisory as
needed through the afternoon.

In the wake of the storms, drier air returns to the state with a
quieter forecast. Expect slightly cooler morning temperatures and
lower dew points, which will keep a Heat Advisory at bay for
Monday.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

The extended forecast continues with no major forecast concerns or
significant weather impacts expected.

Overall pattern in the extended is still defined by NW flow aloft.
Models showing upper level ridge over TX will build slowly east
through day 7. The over all NW flow starts off fairly dry but by
Wed/Thu we will see waves moving SE out of the Northern/Central
Plains pushing into GA with the upper level NWLY flow.

We could see some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as there is
still some moisture around the area but the best MCS development
appears likely Wednesday thru the weekend. Between MCS, MCV
afternoon redevelopment and general pulse thunderstorms, will likely
see 30-50% coverage at least during the afternoons and evenings. In
addition to traditional convective threats, heavy rainfall and
flooding may also occur in this pattern. Heat risk could crop back
up again late this week as well.

VSS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR associated in/near convection
this afternoon. TSRA has ramped up with daytime heating, but
largely stayed south of northern TAF sites. Expect main TS concern
to be at CSG and MCN through the next few hours. Patchy morning fog
may be an issue where convection holds into the late evening.
Gusty winds in convection, but otherwise, NW winds at 5-10kt will
become more N Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         73  95  71  92 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     63  86  60  83 /   0  10   0  10
Cartersville    68  92  67  90 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        74  96  74  95 /  20  10   0  10
Gainesville     70  92  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
Macon           72  95  72  93 /  30  10  10  10
Rome            70  93  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  70  95  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  92  74  92 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ039-049>051-
058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1151 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
with most of the activity shifting to middle Georgia after sunset.
Some of the storms will be strong and could even be briefly severe
with damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Elevated heat risk is also expected over middle Georgia this
afternoon with heat index values up to 106 expected. A heat
advisory is in effect through 9 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Monday
and Tuesday with increasing coverage possible later this week.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with very heavy
rain, lightning and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ058-071-301915-
Butts GA-Monroe GA-
243 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Monroe
and southwestern Butts Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 243 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over High Falls State Park,
or near Jackson, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Flovilla, High Falls State Park, Blount, Berner, McKibben,
and Indian Springs State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3333 8399 3316 8382 3312 8381 3307 8399
      3316 8404 3320 8404 3320 8407 3325 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 315DEG 22KT 3321 8400

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ102-103-301930-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
304 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Stewart
and southwestern Webster Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Troutman, or near
Lumpkin, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Richland, Weston, Troutman, Kimbrough, Westville, and
Leveretts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8467 3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8480
      3193 8480 3192 8481 3193 8489 3208 8476
      3195 8446 3192 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 295DEG 14KT 3197 8473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ081-094-301945-
Peach GA-Crawford GA-
310 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Peach and
southeastern Crawford Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 309 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Powerville, or near
Fort Valley, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Fort Valley, Warner Robins, Byron, Powerville, Miami Valley,
and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8397 3271 8389 3268 8371 3265 8371
      3265 8373 3261 8371 3258 8372 3253 8374
      3253 8375 3251 8375 3251 8379 3250 8379
      3249 8380 3245 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 291DEG 10KT 3261 8386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ093>095-105-301945-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-
314 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Macon,
northeastern Dooly, southeastern Peach and Houston Counties through
345 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Unadilla, or 12 miles
south of Perry, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Vienna, Unadilla, Byromville, Pinehurst, Lilly, Dooling,
Hayneville, Meadowdale, Sand Bed, Houston Lake, Grovania, Elko, Grove
Park, Moss Oak, Henderson, Klondike, and Clinchfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8399 3245 8384 3254 8371 3243 8352
      3235 8357 3229 8361 3228 8361 3208 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 294DEG 16KT 3229 8371

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Smiths Crossroad    33.00N 85.02W
07/30/2023                   Troup              GA   Public

            Tree down across I-85 in Troup county.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

GAZ071-081-082-302000-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-
319 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bibb, southern
Monroe and northeastern Crawford Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Bolingbroke, or near
Forsyth, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Forsyth, Roberta, Payne, Culloden, Payne City, Lake
Tobesofkee, Bolingbroke, Russellville, Brent, Musella, Knoxville,
Wesleyan, Lizella, Arkwright, Sandy Point, and Plant Scherer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 8407 3293 8411 3293 8406 3295 8405
      3295 8404 3297 8404 3310 8379 3294 8370
      3292 8370 3290 8367 3280 8358 3273 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 321DEG 17KT 3294 8389

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH