Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Summer shows no sign of slowing down as temps spike tomorrow and
into Monday. As the flow transitions today from NW to W; temps and
dewpoints have the potential to increase into heat advisory and even
Excessive Heat criteria in some of the southern parts of the CWA.
South and east of a line from Columbus to Augusta dew points could
reach as high as 75 with temperatures maxing out around 97. This
combination puts our Heat Indices at 105+ for Sunday afternoon.
There are some variables here that may prevent us from reaching
excessive heat criteria;

1.) The potential for afternoon convection across the area
forecasted to reach our criteria. This may play a limiting factor in
how high our temps climb.

2.) Model discrepancy; Whether we hit our excessive heat criteria
will depend largely on dewpoint values in the afternoon. Some models
are running a little on the drier side with Td's reaching the low
70s instead of the mid to upper 70s. While this might not seem like
much they can make a big difference in how high the HI gets.

Given all of this, we have opted to go for a Heat Advisory for
Sunday. We'll continue to monitor conditions carefully and upgrade
to Excessive Heat if necessary.

This afternoon, we're expecting another day of Isolated
thunderstorms across the CWA. The main focus according to the CAMs
looks like it will stay east of the ATL metro area and along/south
of the I-20 corridor. There is the potential for a few of these
storms to have damaging winds and heavy rain given the abundance of
instability this morning along and west of a low pressure system on
the Carolinas.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The ridge over the southwestern US will begin to shift eastward over
the southern Plains at the beginning of the long term forecast
period. As a frontal boundary moves through associated with the
upper level trough over the eastern CONUS, drier conditions will
prevail through the beginning of the work week. Despite the
influence of NWly flow that typically keeps us on our toes with
MCS's, the drier than average airmass (ranging from 0.75 to 1.5
inches of PWATs) that will be ushered in is expected to result in
lower PoPs through Wednesday, with the best chances for
precipitation remaining across the north Georgia mountains and
further south closer to a boundary that looks to stall across north
Florida. Thursday, PoP chances will increase as moisture returns to
the forecast area and the high pressure moves further east. Models
are suggesting the potential for organized storms riding the eastern
periphery of the ridge will move through the forecast area Thursday
afternoon. As the ridge to the west and trough to the east become
less amplified through the end of the work week, our flow aloft
becomes more zonal. More diurnal convective activity is expected
through the weekend as moisture remains in place over the forecast
area.

Temperatures in the 90s Monday will trend cooler through mid week
into the upper 80s and low 90s before warming gradually through the
end of the long term. Heat index values will stay out of the triple
digits for much of the period before they return to the forecast
area by Friday.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

In general, VFR conditions are expected over the TAF period.
TSRA complex currently in Tennessee is expected to gradually
weaken and diminish before reaching ATL area sites tonight with
additional TSRA complex over mid-MS Valley also expected to weaken
before reaching ATL Sun AM. Uncertainty does remain, however, and
a low-end chance for some of this activity reaching TAF sites
exists but confidence is low. Otherwise, shra/tsra coverage
favored to increase after 18Z Sun. Winds will remain W to NW 5-10
kts outside of TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on shra/tsra timing.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  97  70  94 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         75  98  73  96 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     67  90  64  86 /  30  30  20  10
Cartersville    72  96  68  93 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus        74 100  75  98 /  20  30  20  10
Gainesville     72  97  70  93 /  20  30  20  10
Macon           72 100  71  97 /  20  30  20  10
Rome            72  97  70  94 /  20  30  20   0
Peachtree City  71  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
Vidalia         73  98  74  94 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ049>051-
059>062-069-071>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
especially over eastcentral and middle Georgia. Some of the storms
will be strong and a few could produce localized areas of
damaging winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Sunday
through Tuesday with increasing coverage possible later next week.
Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rain, lightning and
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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