Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Summer shows no sign of slowing down as temps spike tomorrow and
into Monday. As the flow transitions today from NW to W; temps and
dewpoints have the potential to increase into heat advisory and even
Excessive Heat criteria in some of the southern parts of the CWA.
South and east of a line from Columbus to Augusta dew points could
reach as high as 75 with temperatures maxing out around 97. This
combination puts our Heat Indices at 105+ for Sunday afternoon.
There are some variables here that may prevent us from reaching
excessive heat criteria;

1.) The potential for afternoon convection across the area
forecasted to reach our criteria. This may play a limiting factor in
how high our temps climb.

2.) Model discrepancy; Whether we hit our excessive heat criteria
will depend largely on dewpoint values in the afternoon. Some models
are running a little on the drier side with Td's reaching the low
70s instead of the mid to upper 70s. While this might not seem like
much they can make a big difference in how high the HI gets.

Given all of this, we have opted to go for a Heat Advisory for
Sunday. We'll continue to monitor conditions carefully and upgrade
to Excessive Heat if necessary.

This afternoon, we're expecting another day of Isolated
thunderstorms across the CWA. The main focus according to the CAMs
looks like it will stay east of the ATL metro area and along/south
of the I-20 corridor. There is the potential for a few of these
storms to have damaging winds and heavy rain given the abundance of
instability this morning along and west of a low pressure system on
the Carolinas.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The ridge over the southwestern US will begin to shift eastward over
the southern Plains at the beginning of the long term forecast
period. As a frontal boundary moves through associated with the
upper level trough over the eastern CONUS, drier conditions will
prevail through the beginning of the work week. Despite the
influence of NWly flow that typically keeps us on our toes with
MCS's, the drier than average airmass (ranging from 0.75 to 1.5
inches of PWATs) that will be ushered in is expected to result in
lower PoPs through Wednesday, with the best chances for
precipitation remaining across the north Georgia mountains and
further south closer to a boundary that looks to stall across north
Florida. Thursday, PoP chances will increase as moisture returns to
the forecast area and the high pressure moves further east. Models
are suggesting the potential for organized storms riding the eastern
periphery of the ridge will move through the forecast area Thursday
afternoon. As the ridge to the west and trough to the east become
less amplified through the end of the work week, our flow aloft
becomes more zonal. More diurnal convective activity is expected
through the weekend as moisture remains in place over the forecast
area.

Temperatures in the 90s Monday will trend cooler through mid week
into the upper 80s and low 90s before warming gradually through the
end of the long term. Heat index values will stay out of the triple
digits for much of the period before they return to the forecast
area by Friday.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

In general, VFR conditions are expected over the TAF period.
TSRA complex currently in Tennessee is expected to gradually
weaken and diminish before reaching ATL area sites tonight with
additional TSRA complex over mid-MS Valley also expected to weaken
before reaching ATL Sun AM. Uncertainty does remain, however, and
a low-end chance for some of this activity reaching TAF sites
exists but confidence is low. Otherwise, shra/tsra coverage
favored to increase after 18Z Sun. Winds will remain W to NW 5-10
kts outside of TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on shra/tsra timing.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  97  70  94 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         75  98  73  96 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     67  90  64  86 /  30  30  20  10
Cartersville    72  96  68  93 /  20  30  20  10
Columbus        74 100  75  98 /  20  30  20  10
Gainesville     72  97  70  93 /  20  30  20  10
Macon           72 100  71  97 /  20  30  20  10
Rome            72  97  70  94 /  20  30  20   0
Peachtree City  71  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
Vidalia         73  98  74  94 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ049>051-
059>062-069-071>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
especially over eastcentral and middle Georgia. Some of the storms
will be strong and a few could produce localized areas of
damaging winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Sunday
through Tuesday with increasing coverage possible later next week.
Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rain, lightning and
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
932 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ023-024-300200-
Hall GA-Banks GA-
932 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Banks
and Hall Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 931 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Garland, or 7 miles
southeast of Dahlonega, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Oakwood, Lula, Clermont, Gillsville, Murrayville, and
Hollingsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8378 3450 8367 3443 8361 3449 8354
      3446 8340 3431 8357 3420 8391 3427 8395
      3429 8393 3430 8395 3433 8395 3436 8398
      3438 8398 3440 8397 3441 8398 3445 8392
      3447 8393 3446 8389 3450 8384 3452 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 322DEG 25KT 3448 8387

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
934 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ013-014-021>023-300200-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-Pickens GA-
934 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Cherokee, northern Forsyth, Dawson, west central Hall and eastern
Pickens Counties through 1000 PM EDT...

At 934 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Juno, or 7 miles
northwest of Dawsonville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Jasper, Dawsonville, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Ball Ground,
Nelson, Free Home, Dougherty, Sequoyah Lake, Coal Mountain,
Hightower, Juno, Fausett Lake, Matt, Lathemtown, Tate, War Hill Park,
McKee, and Marblehill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 8397 3428 8393 3427 8395 3420 8391
      3423 8431 3448 8456 3455 8441 3455 8437
      3456 8437 3457 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 322DEG 25KT 3449 8423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1004 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ023>025-027-035-300230-
Madison GA-Hall GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-
1004 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Barrow, southern
Banks, southeastern Hall, Jackson and Madison Counties through 1030
PM EDT...

At 1003 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Homer to near Hog Mountain, and moving southeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Winder, Jefferson, Commerce, Homer, Danielsville,
Braselton, Auburn, Oakwood, Statham, Maysville, Arcade, Nicholson,
Hoschton, Comer, Bethlehem, Colbert, Pendergrass, Ila, and Carlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 8334 3426 8330 3424 8317 3427 8311
      3423 8308 3417 8310 3405 8299 3402 8306
      3405 8314 3400 8322 3404 8339 3403 8339
      3400 8350 3391 8365 3389 8376 3400 8387
      3412 8382 3410 8388 3423 8389 3439 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 330DEG 29KT 3431 8344 3409 8393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1006 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ013-014-020>023-032>034-300230-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-
Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Pickens GA-
1006 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cherokee, Forsyth,
northeastern Cobb, Gwinnett, south central Dawson, southwestern Hall,
northeastern Fulton, southern Pickens and northeastern Bartow
Counties through 1030 PM EDT...

At 1006 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Waleska to Lake Lanier Islands, and moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Canton, Cumming, Peachtree Corners, Mountain Park,
Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Milton, Duluth,
Woodstock, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Holly Springs, Norcross,
Braselton, Auburn, and Flowery Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 8426 3423 8389 3410 8388 3412 8382
      3400 8387 3393 8380 3390 8384 3396 8428
      3413 8467 3441 8466 3441 8465 3442 8465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 336DEG 20KT 3436 8454 3418 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1008 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

GAZ038-039-300245-
Wilkes GA-Oglethorpe GA-
1008 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wilkes and
northeastern Oglethorpe Counties through 1045 PM EDT...

At 1008 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Sweet City, or near
Elberton, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tignall, Jacksons Crossroads, Mallorysville, Delhi, Norman, Danburg,
Smithonia, Watson Mill Bridge State Park, Vesta, Point Peter, and
Floral Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8297 3400 8322 3405 8314 3402 8305
      3404 8298 3403 8294 3402 8294 3401 8293
      3401 8291 3398 8285 3399 8284 3397 8278
      3399 8266 3386 8261 3387 8258 3387 8257
      3383 8260 3376 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 358DEG 16KT 3404 8293

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Albright

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1016 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Preston            32.08N 84.55W
07/29/2023                   Webster            GA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            8 trees down Hwy 280 west of Preston.

&&