Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A favorable environment for active weather remains in place across
the entire south east. The OOZ sounding indicates steep low level
lapse rates and SB CAPE at 1200K/KG. Dewpoints have remain in the
mid to upper 60s south of a cold front that has all but stalled
across northern Georgia. The only thing the environment needs is a
push to get things going. Which it may get with a short wave that
pushes through this morning.

A few storms in Alabama have already begin to pop along the front
and have found themselves in environment favorable for developing a
significant hail core and damaging winds. We're expecting this trend
to continue and these storms will likely begin to impact our CWA
after 5 AM.

Timing and location have still been challenging to nail down. A Td
boundary has set up across northern GA slicing the metro in two
along an SW to NE axis. Given the latest guidance, confidence is
beginning to grow that the severe threat will remain largely south
and east of a line from LaGrange to Athens. The primary threat with
these storms will be damaging winds and large hail but an isolated
tornado can't be ruled out; especially closer to the GA/AL border
where SRH will approach 200 m2/s-2.

This afternoon, the threat for severe weather will begin to
diminish, but heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue
along the front leading to the next potential hazard which will be
flash flooding. WPC indicates a slight risk for excessive rainfall
supported by a bullseye of QPF along and south of the cold front in
excess of 3" Sunday and into Monday. A flood watch may be warranted
later this morning.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A short-lived reprieve from a very active Short Term period will
begin Monday night as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central
Georgia once again. With a reinforcing push from a drier,
continental airmass on its way, one final wave of precipitation is
expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. A weak upper-level impulse
will be moving embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft with just
enough moisture and lift to squeezed out a round of numerous, light
showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily across Central Georgia
ahead of a stronger cold front forecast on Tuesday Night.

By Wednesday, a surface high pressure will finally dominate the
weather pattern across the state as surface dewpoints drop into the
mid 30s in North Georgia and mid 40s in Central Georgia. This break
in the active weather is expected to last roughly through Friday,
with some mid-level ridging setting up on Thursday morning through
Friday morning before upper-level southwesterly flow sets in. With
the surface high pressure in place, temperatures are expected to
gradually climb each day with highs in the upper 60s forecast on
Wednesday climb to near 80 on Friday. Additionally, PWATs will also
gradually increase as mid- and upper-level moisture advect in to the
area over the surface high with values jumping from 0.25-0.50 inches
on Wednesday morning to around 1.25 inches on Friday afternoon,
priming the area for the next round of active showers and storms.

On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave with an accompanied low
pressure system across the MidWest will pull up Gulf moisture into
the region before a cold front enters the Southeastern CONUS. Model
consensus is pretty high currently, but seeing how this is well in
the extended forecast, changes may occur in the coming days.
However, at this moment rain showers and thunderstorms are once
again expected, though there's hope that at least this system could
be one that exits quickly and doesn't linger for several days.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

As winds become more SSW after 12Z, TSRA are more likely to push
north into ATL. The TEMPO for TSRA for 12-16Z still remains the best
time for ATL to see impacts. SHRA is expected to come to a pause
between 17-02Z and another wave will push through after 02Z. Winds
will remain west of south but could be variable at times; especially
between waves.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on TSRA timing and winds
Medium to High on all other elements

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  79  50  68 /  90  60  20  40
Atlanta         63  77  52  67 /  90  70  20  40
Blairsville     55  72  44  64 /  80  40  10  30
Cartersville    60  77  48  67 /  80  30  20  30
Columbus        64  81  56  70 /  80  80  30  50
Gainesville     60  77  50  67 /  90  60  10  30
Macon           64  80  56  70 /  70  70  20  50
Rome            60  77  48  69 /  70   0  10  30
Peachtree City  62  79  51  69 /  90  70  20  40
Vidalia         67  81  61  73 /  50  50  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
906 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
906 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A stationary frontal boundary will remain situated across north
and central portions of Georgia through tonight. The boundary
will serve as a focus for multiple waves of showers and
thunderstorms through early morning. Heavy rainfall will be
likely, and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for widespread
totals of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
of up to 5 inches possible.

In addition, strong to severe storms will be possible later this
afternoon and into the overnight hours, mainly along and south of
the Interstate 20 corridor. The primary severe weather hazards
will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Brief tornadoes will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is the potential for multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, with strong to severe storms and
isolated flash flooding possible each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
801 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ066-067-261245-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
801 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Meriwether and northern Troup Counties through 845 AM EDT...

At 801 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Abbottsford, or near
LaGrange, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
LaGrange, Hogansville, Corinth, Saint Marks, Harrisonville,
Hillcrest, Wares Crossroads, Louise and Abbottsford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for west central
Georgia.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 8522 3323 8493 3322 8491 3314 8481
      3306 8483 3300 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1201Z 249DEG 40KT 3304 8513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
805 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ058-059-071-072-261245-
Butts GA-Monroe GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
805 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Monroe,
southeastern Butts, northwestern Jones and southwestern Jasper
Counties through 845 AM EDT...

At 805 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Blount, or near
Forsyth, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Forsyth, Blount, Hillsboro, McElheneys Crossroads, Berner, Juliette
and Adgateville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3302 8399 3315 8404 3332 8373 3323 8363
      3311 8363
TIME...MOT...LOC 1205Z 249DEG 39KT 3312 8395

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
816 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ067>070-079-261245-
Lamar GA-Upson GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-
816 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Meriwether, southeastern Pike, Upson, north central Talbot and
southern Lamar Counties through 845 AM EDT...

At 816 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Piedmont to Warm Springs, and moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Barnesville, Manchester, Warm Springs, Meansville, Aldora,
Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, The Rock, Atwater, Redbone Crossroads,
Sprewell Bluff State Park, Crest, Redbone, Sunnyside, Hannahs Mill
and Piedmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 8428 3306 8404 3298 8404 3282 8434
      3286 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 260DEG 22KT 3304 8424 3287 8467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
850 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ068>071-261345-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Pike GA-
850 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Pike, northern
Monroe, northern Upson and Lamar Counties through 945 AM EDT...

At 849 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Johnstonville to Atwater, and moving east at 70
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         minor flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Barnesville, Forsyth, Zebulon, Milner, Molena, Meansville,
Aldora, The Rock, Sunset Village, Concord, Atwater, Hilltop, Blount,
Liberty Hill, Hannahs Mill, Collier, Johnstonville, Goggins and
Berner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT for parts
of central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8447 3320 8401 3319 8384 3315 8382
      3313 8382 3311 8380 3293 8403 3291 8451
      3292 8452 3291 8453 3295 8452 3296 8453
      3298 8452 3301 8454 3304 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 252DEG 60KT 3311 8405 3296 8439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
856 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MILLEDGEVILLE       33.09N 83.23W
03/26/2023                   BALDWIN            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF MLK AND JEFFERSON ST.

&&

MGW

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