Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
349 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A favorable environment for active weather remains in place across
the entire south east. The OOZ sounding indicates steep low level
lapse rates and SB CAPE at 1200K/KG. Dewpoints have remain in the
mid to upper 60s south of a cold front that has all but stalled
across northern Georgia. The only thing the environment needs is a
push to get things going. Which it may get with a short wave that
pushes through this morning.

A few storms in Alabama have already begin to pop along the front
and have found themselves in environment favorable for developing a
significant hail core and damaging winds. We're expecting this trend
to continue and these storms will likely begin to impact our CWA
after 5 AM.

Timing and location have still been challenging to nail down. A Td
boundary has set up across northern GA slicing the metro in two
along an SW to NE axis. Given the latest guidance, confidence is
beginning to grow that the severe threat will remain largely south
and east of a line from LaGrange to Athens. The primary threat with
these storms will be damaging winds and large hail but an isolated
tornado can't be ruled out; especially closer to the GA/AL border
where SRH will approach 200 m2/s-2.

This afternoon, the threat for severe weather will begin to
diminish, but heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue
along the front leading to the next potential hazard which will be
flash flooding. WPC indicates a slight risk for excessive rainfall
supported by a bullseye of QPF along and south of the cold front in
excess of 3" Sunday and into Monday. A flood watch may be warranted
later this morning.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A short-lived reprieve from a very active Short Term period will
begin Monday night as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central
Georgia once again. With a reinforcing push from a drier,
continental airmass on its way, one final wave of precipitation is
expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. A weak upper-level impulse
will be moving embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft with just
enough moisture and lift to squeezed out a round of numerous, light
showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily across Central Georgia
ahead of a stronger cold front forecast on Tuesday Night.

By Wednesday, a surface high pressure will finally dominate the
weather pattern across the state as surface dewpoints drop into the
mid 30s in North Georgia and mid 40s in Central Georgia. This break
in the active weather is expected to last roughly through Friday,
with some mid-level ridging setting up on Thursday morning through
Friday morning before upper-level southwesterly flow sets in. With
the surface high pressure in place, temperatures are expected to
gradually climb each day with highs in the upper 60s forecast on
Wednesday climb to near 80 on Friday. Additionally, PWATs will also
gradually increase as mid- and upper-level moisture advect in to the
area over the surface high with values jumping from 0.25-0.50 inches
on Wednesday morning to around 1.25 inches on Friday afternoon,
priming the area for the next round of active showers and storms.

On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave with an accompanied low
pressure system across the MidWest will pull up Gulf moisture into
the region before a cold front enters the Southeastern CONUS. Model
consensus is pretty high currently, but seeing how this is well in
the extended forecast, changes may occur in the coming days.
However, at this moment rain showers and thunderstorms are once
again expected, though there's hope that at least this system could
be one that exits quickly and doesn't linger for several days.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

The overnight TAF period will stay relatively quiet from 06Z until
12Z. TSRA is anticipated to move through the area between 12Z and
16Z this morning. After clearing our, SHRA will likely remain in the
area until a break after 20Z. Then SHRA will push back in after 02Z.
Included a PROB30 for TSRA although confidence remains low. Winds
are expected to remain out of the SSW with a few obs going SE after
17; but the flow will be primarily SSW.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Low to Medium on TSRA timing
Medium to High on all other elements

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  61  79  50 /  60  90  60  20
Atlanta         75  63  77  52 /  70  90  70  20
Blairsville     72  55  72  44 /  30  80  40  10
Cartersville    77  60  77  48 /  50  80  30  20
Columbus        77  64  81  56 /  70  80  80  30
Gainesville     76  60  77  50 /  50  90  60  10
Macon           77  64  80  56 /  70  70  70  20
Rome            76  60  77  48 /  40  70   0  10
Peachtree City  72  62  79  51 /  70  90  70  20
Vidalia         85  67  81  61 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Vaughn

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             3 N LA CROSSE           32.22N 84.24W
03/25/2023  E1.25 INCH       SCHLEY             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGER ALONG HWY 228 NEAR LACROSS RD.

&&

KAL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ052-260900-
Heard GA-
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Heard County through
500 AM EDT...

At 427 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Paran, or near Roanoke,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Centralhatchee, Corinth, Waresville, Frolona, Texas, Plant
Wansley and Glenn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 8506 3343 8502 3328 8496 3328 8495
      3326 8495 3323 8494 3319 8503 3318 8505
      3317 8508 3320 8511 3318 8511 3318 8512
      3316 8512 3313 8524 3332 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 246DEG 29KT 3321 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH