Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A favorable environment for active weather remains in place across
the entire south east. The OOZ sounding indicates steep low level
lapse rates and SB CAPE at 1200K/KG. Dewpoints have remain in the
mid to upper 60s south of a cold front that has all but stalled
across northern Georgia. The only thing the environment needs is a
push to get things going. Which it may get with a short wave that
pushes through this morning.

A few storms in Alabama have already begin to pop along the front
and have found themselves in environment favorable for developing a
significant hail core and damaging winds. We're expecting this trend
to continue and these storms will likely begin to impact our CWA
after 5 AM.

Timing and location have still been challenging to nail down. A Td
boundary has set up across northern GA slicing the metro in two
along an SW to NE axis. Given the latest guidance, confidence is
beginning to grow that the severe threat will remain largely south
and east of a line from LaGrange to Athens. The primary threat with
these storms will be damaging winds and large hail but an isolated
tornado can't be ruled out; especially closer to the GA/AL border
where SRH will approach 200 m2/s-2.

This afternoon, the threat for severe weather will begin to
diminish, but heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue
along the front leading to the next potential hazard which will be
flash flooding. WPC indicates a slight risk for excessive rainfall
supported by a bullseye of QPF along and south of the cold front in
excess of 3" Sunday and into Monday. A flood watch may be warranted
later this morning.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A short-lived reprieve from a very active Short Term period will
begin Monday night as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central
Georgia once again. With a reinforcing push from a drier,
continental airmass on its way, one final wave of precipitation is
expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. A weak upper-level impulse
will be moving embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft with just
enough moisture and lift to squeezed out a round of numerous, light
showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily across Central Georgia
ahead of a stronger cold front forecast on Tuesday Night.

By Wednesday, a surface high pressure will finally dominate the
weather pattern across the state as surface dewpoints drop into the
mid 30s in North Georgia and mid 40s in Central Georgia. This break
in the active weather is expected to last roughly through Friday,
with some mid-level ridging setting up on Thursday morning through
Friday morning before upper-level southwesterly flow sets in. With
the surface high pressure in place, temperatures are expected to
gradually climb each day with highs in the upper 60s forecast on
Wednesday climb to near 80 on Friday. Additionally, PWATs will also
gradually increase as mid- and upper-level moisture advect in to the
area over the surface high with values jumping from 0.25-0.50 inches
on Wednesday morning to around 1.25 inches on Friday afternoon,
priming the area for the next round of active showers and storms.

On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave with an accompanied low
pressure system across the MidWest will pull up Gulf moisture into
the region before a cold front enters the Southeastern CONUS. Model
consensus is pretty high currently, but seeing how this is well in
the extended forecast, changes may occur in the coming days.
However, at this moment rain showers and thunderstorms are once
again expected, though there's hope that at least this system could
be one that exits quickly and doesn't linger for several days.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

As winds become more SSW after 12Z, TSRA are more likely to push
north into ATL. The TEMPO for TSRA for 12-16Z still remains the best
time for ATL to see impacts. SHRA is expected to come to a pause
between 17-02Z and another wave will push through after 02Z. Winds
will remain west of south but could be variable at times; especially
between waves.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium on TSRA timing and winds
Medium to High on all other elements

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  79  50  68 /  90  60  20  40
Atlanta         63  77  52  67 /  90  70  20  40
Blairsville     55  72  44  64 /  80  40  10  30
Cartersville    60  77  48  67 /  80  30  20  30
Columbus        64  81  56  70 /  80  80  30  50
Gainesville     60  77  50  67 /  90  60  10  30
Macon           64  80  56  70 /  70  70  20  50
Rome            60  77  48  69 /  70   0  10  30
Peachtree City  62  79  51  69 /  90  70  20  40
Vidalia         67  81  61  73 /  50  50  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270800-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
358 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for portions of west and
central Georgia until 9 AM. These storms have the possibility for
damaging winds and large hail as well as heavy rain and frequent
lightning.

Another round of Thunderstorms is expected to later this morning
and into the afternoon south of I-20. Damaging winds, large hail,
and isolated tornadoes will be possible in any of these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is the potential for multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday, with strong to severe
storms and isolated flash flooding possible each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ069>071-261045-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-
602 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Monroe, northeastern
Upson and southeastern Lamar Counties through 645 AM EDT...

At 601 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Yatesville, or 10 miles
south of Barnesville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
         leading killers. If you can hear thunder, you are close
         enough to be struck by lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Forsyth, Yatesville, Culloden, Logtown, Bolingbroke, Dames Ferry,
Russellville, Brent and Plant Scherer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 8422 3310 8379 3303 8372 3301 8373
      3300 8372 3298 8372 3295 8371 3295 8373
      3294 8373 3287 8386 3285 8397 3286 8398
      3285 8400 3285 8412 3283 8413 3282 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1001Z 253DEG 34KT 3291 8413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
617 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HAIL             1 WSW BIG SPRINGS       32.99N 84.92W
03/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       TROUP              GA   PUBLIC

            1 INCH HAIL AND 50E MPH WINDS AT LOWER BIG
            SPRINGS RD AND STOVALL RD SE OF LAGRANGE.

&&

KJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
621 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     HAIL             1 ENE SENOIA            33.30N 84.54W
03/26/2023  E1.00 INCH       COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WERNER WAY AND
            SEAVY STREET.

&&

MGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 AM     HAIL             LOCUST GROVE            33.34N 84.10W
03/26/2023  E1.50 INCH       HENRY              GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
657 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 AM     HAIL             MEANSVILLE              33.05N 84.31W
03/26/2023  M1.25 INCH       PIKE               GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             WOODBURY                32.99N 84.58W
03/26/2023  M1.00 INCH       MERIWETHER         GA   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MGW