Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Atlanta, GA

633 
WWUS52 KFFC 262125
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
525 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAC259-307-262145-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-230326T2145Z/
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
525 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL STEWART AND WESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES...

At 524 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Providence
Canyon State Park, or near Lumpkin, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Weston, Seminole, Charles, Kimbrough,
Westville and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3204 8495 3212 8494 3218 8457 3206 8450
      3197 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 272DEG 26KT 3208 8490 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

The very active weather period will continue through the next 24
hours or so with additional waves of showers and thunderstorms
expected. This all comes courtesy of a slowly-northward-progressing
surface warm front that remains stretched across the area generally
in the vicinity of I-20 at this hour. While showers and
thunderstorms linger in the vicinity of this boundary this
afternoon, coverage and intensity has greatly waned as compared to
this morning. Earlier severe weather which brought tornadoes, large
hail, and flash flooding initiated courtesy of a shortwave
traversing along the boundary this morning, and the next round of
storms tonight will also be sparked in this manner.

The next in our series of disturbances will lift from the northern
Gulf Coast along the warm front from this afternoon into this
evening, with convection already sparking ahead of it at this hour.
While additional isolated thunderstorm development is possible over
the next few hours, hi-res CAMs are in fairly good agreement that
more widespread development is favored around and after 00Z ahead of
this wave.  Additionally, a weak surface low will develop along the
front and lift into the Tennessee Valley tonight into early Monday
morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will thus overspread
the area overnight, and hi-res guidance has increasingly indicated
storms will congeal into a cluster or complex as they progress
eastward. These storms along and south of the warm front will pose a
severe threat with damaging wind gusts and hail being most probable,
though a tornado threat will also exist as low-level shear increases
overnight into early Monday morning.

Additionally, there will be an ongoing risk for flash flooding,
particularly given that a swath of the area has received 1-3" of
rainfall with local totals upwards of 5" already today. With
additional amounts of 1-3" with locally higher additional amounts,
flash flooding would develop quickly. A Flood Watch for flash
flooding remains in effect through 12Z across this area where the
most significant rainfall totals have already occurred and
additional heaviest totals are forecast. This area is also
highlighted by a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC.

Showers and thunderstorms will be shunted to the southeast through
the day on Monday as a cold front finally makes headway into north
Georgia. Drier and sunny conditions will spread into north Georgia
during the afternoon behind the front. Ongoing thunderstorms will be
largely be relegated to the southeast CWA by early afternoon, though
these storms could pose a continued severe risk. Activity should
finally exit the area by late afternoon/early evening Monday.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

See Previous Long-Term Discussion Below...

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A short-lived reprieve from a very active Short Term period will
begin Monday night as a weak frontal boundary stalls across Central
Georgia once again. With a reinforcing push from a drier,
continental airmass on its way, one final wave of precipitation is
expected Tuesday morning and afternoon. A weak upper-level impulse
will be moving embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft with just
enough moisture and lift to squeezed out a round of numerous, light
showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily across Central Georgia
ahead of a stronger cold front forecast on Tuesday Night.

By Wednesday, a surface high pressure will finally dominate the
weather pattern across the state as surface dewpoints drop into the
mid 30s in North Georgia and mid 40s in Central Georgia. This break
in the active weather is expected to last roughly through Friday,
with some mid-level ridging setting up on Thursday morning through
Friday morning before upper-level southwesterly flow sets in. With
the surface high pressure in place, temperatures are expected to
gradually climb each day with highs in the upper 60s forecast on
Wednesday climb to near 80 on Friday. Additionally, PWATs will also
gradually increase as mid- and upper-level moisture advect in to the
area over the surface high with values jumping from 0.25-0.50 inches
on Wednesday morning to around 1.25 inches on Friday afternoon,
priming the area for the next round of active showers and storms.

On Saturday, an upper-level shortwave with an accompanied low
pressure system across the MidWest will pull up Gulf moisture into
the region before a cold front enters the Southeastern CONUS. Model
consensus is pretty high currently, but seeing how this is well in
the extended forecast, changes may occur in the coming days.
However, at this moment rain showers and thunderstorms are once
again expected, though there's hope that at least this system could
be one that exits quickly and doesn't linger for several days.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

A very complex forecast will be in place over this TAF period with
rounds of showers and storms as well as reduced cigs/vsbys.
Initial shra/tsra have shifted largely south of ATL area sites,
though shra could potentially approach sites through this
afternoon. Otherwise, cigs will vary between MVFR and patchy IFR
at times this afternoon with IFR becoming predominant after 00Z.
Widespread shra/tsra also expected to return after 00Z and
spread SE through 12Z. Shra/tsra will end from NW to SE from
12-18Z Monday. Cigs will gradually improve after 15Z. Winds will
remain largely SSW this afternoon becoming SSE after 00Z and
returning SSW after 06Z at speeds 5-10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium on all elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  79  50  68 / 100  40  20  30
Atlanta         62  77  52  66 / 100  30  20  30
Blairsville     55  71  43  65 /  90  10  10  20
Cartersville    60  77  47  67 / 100  10  20  20
Columbus        64  80  55  70 /  80  70  30  60
Gainesville     60  77  50  66 / 100  20  20  20
Macon           65  79  55  70 /  80  70  30  40
Rome            60  77  48  69 /  90  10  10  20
Peachtree City  62  79  50  68 / 100  40  30  30
Vidalia         67  82  61  73 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for GAZ036>039-046>062-
066>076-078>085-089>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
906 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
906 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A stationary frontal boundary will remain situated across north
and central portions of Georgia through tonight. The boundary
will serve as a focus for multiple waves of showers and
thunderstorms through early morning. Heavy rainfall will be
likely, and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for widespread
totals of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
of up to 5 inches possible.

In addition, strong to severe storms will be possible later this
afternoon and into the overnight hours, mainly along and south of
the Interstate 20 corridor. The primary severe weather hazards
will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Brief tornadoes will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is the potential for multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, with strong to severe storms and
isolated flash flooding possible each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW LIFSEY SPRINGS     33.05N 84.40W
03/26/2023                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INTERSECTION CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE CONCORD           33.08N 84.41W
03/26/2023                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
206 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW LIFSEY SPRINGS    33.01N 84.39W
03/26/2023                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
208 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S CONCORD             33.05N 84.44W
03/26/2023                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
212 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE ZEBULON           33.09N 84.30W
03/26/2023                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAMPGROUND ROAD IS WASHED OUT.

&&

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
213 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW MOLENA             33.02N 84.51W
03/26/2023                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DANIEL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

NLIST