Wind Advisory 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

676 
WWUS73 KDVN 310825
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
325 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ051-052-311630-
/O.EXA.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.230331T1800Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-
Including the cities of Vinton and Cedar Rapids
325 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Benton and Linn Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. If a fire were to start, it could quickly grow out of 
  control.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dry fuels and gusty winds will combine to 
  create very high fire danger today. Burning should be avoided 
  today across the advisory area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-
035-MOZ009-010-311630-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.230331T1800Z-230401T1800Z/
Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-
Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-
Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-
Clark-
Including the cities of Marengo, Iowa City, Tipton, Muscatine, 
Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, Wapello, Fairfield,
Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, Fort Madison, Moline, 
Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, Aledo, Oquawka, 
Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
325 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected and very high fire danger.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. If a fire were to start, it could quickly grow out of 
  control.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dry fuels and gusty winds will combine to 
  create very high fire danger today. Burning should be avoided 
  today across the advisory area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

801 
WWUS73 KDVN 311504
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1004 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-312315-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.230331T1800Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-
Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-
Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, 
Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
1004 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Benton and Linn Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. If a fire were to start, it could quickly grow out of 
  control.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong winds could combine with isolated
  snow showers overnight to bring low visibility in some areas for
  a brief time.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

571 
WWUS73 KDVN 311910
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
210 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-010315-
/O.EXB.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.230401T0300Z-230401T1800Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Anamosa, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, 
and Sterling
210 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Jones, Jackson 
  and Clinton Counties. In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, 
  Carroll and Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. If a fire were to start, it could quickly grow out of 
  control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010315-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-
Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-
Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, 
Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
210 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. If a fire were to start, it could quickly grow out of 
  control.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

258 
WWUS73 KDVN 010409
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1109 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011215-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-
Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-
Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, 
Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
1109 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ040>042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-011215-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Anamosa, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, 
and Sterling
1109 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Jones, Jackson 
  and Clinton Counties. In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, 
  Carroll and Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Haase

514 
WWUS73 KDVN 010811
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
311 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011615-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-
Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-
Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, 
Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
311 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM CDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ040>042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-011615-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Anamosa, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, 
and Sterling
311 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West to northwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph expected.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Jones, Jackson 
  and Clinton Counties. In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, 
  Carroll and Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...Through 1 PM CDT today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Haase

134 
WWUS73 KDVN 011355
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
855 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011800-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-
Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-
Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, 
Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
855 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ040>042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-011800-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Anamosa, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, 
and Sterling
855 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Buchanan, Delaware, Dubuque, Jones, Jackson 
  and Clinton Counties. In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, 
  Carroll and Whiteside Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

323 
WWUS73 KDVN 011759
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1259 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

IAZ051-052-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011900-
/O.EXP.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Benton-Linn-Iowa-Johnson-Cedar-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-
Louisa-Jefferson-Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Rock Island-
Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Scotland-Clark-
Including the cities of Vinton, Cedar Rapids, Marengo, Iowa City,
Tipton, Muscatine, Davenport, Bettendorf, Sigourney, Washington, 
Wapello, Fairfield, Mount Pleasant, Burlington, Keosauqua, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, Memphis, and Kahoka
1259 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will remain brisk and gusty but continue to decrease 
through the afternoon. Therefore the advisory will be allowed to 
expire. 

$$

IAZ040>042-053-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-011900-
/O.EXP.KDVN.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230401T1800Z/
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Jones-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-
Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque, 
Anamosa, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, 
and Sterling
1259 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Winds will remain brisk and gusty but continue to decrease 
through the afternoon. Therefore the advisory will be allowed to 
expire. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

The calm before the storm, as high pressure slides east. A beautiful
day was seen throughout, with a mix of clouds/sun and temperatures
in the 50s to mid 60s. Storm system emerges off of the Rockies this
evening, which will be the focus of the forecast. While the pressure
gradient is weak currently, mixing has allowed winds to increase and
gust upwards to 25 mph, as warm advection aloft is increasing. This
is the time to get all of your ducks in a row, as confidence in
severe weather is increasing for tomorrow. Thus, have a plan
together and have MULTIPLE ways to receive watches and warnings, in
case the forecast continues as is!

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Tomorrow, the severe weather day that we have been messaging
arrives. Bottom line up front: Confidence continues to increase on
severe weather mid-afternoon through the evening on Friday. General
timing will be between 2-8pm, with storms moving into our west
around 2pm. Currently, the SPC has essentially highlighted our whole
area with a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for Severe Weather, which
indicates numerous strong to severe storms are expected. Along with
the risk of severe winds, we can expect strong winds through the day
as well, as strong gradient winds develop and mixing may also
translate strong winds aloft to the surface.

Potent wave is currently ejecting off of the central Rockies, which
is generating a strong surface low, which continues to deepen, that
is set to track through the midwest. Guidance is starting to hone in
on a track of the system, which would track the surface low from
west-central IA and track it through northeast IA. With that, a
strong warm front traversed through the area today, leaving our area
in the warm sector of the approaching storm and our eyes are on the
cold front and possible occlusion that works its way into the area.
Tonight and into Friday morning, we will be dealing with warm
advection-induced convection. Some of these storms may be strong,
with a low chance to see some severe storms, mainly focusing on
hail. Frequent lightning can also be expected from these storms. As
this clears out tomorrow morning, we will warm up quite a bit, with
temperatures forecast to increase into the upper 60s to mid 70s,
especially in our south. Some guidance hints at near 80 degrees in
our south! So, well above normal temperatures are forecast ahead of
the cold front. Also, collocated with the warm temperatures,
impressive warm advection will also pull in anomalous moisture.
Thus, dewpoints are currently forecast to be within the mid 50s to
low 60s.

While the triple point will be the area to focus on, especially for
tornado potential, we must also look in the warm sector, especially
along/ahead of the cold front. Initially, we may see some more
discrete convection form, but given strong forcing and shear
parallel to the boundary, we are expecting upscale growth. Although,
latest guidance is indicating more of a disconnected line of
supercells, also supported by model soundings. Damaging winds and
tornadoes will be the main threat, with areas of large hail as well.
The SPC has our area hatched on all hazards, indicating that we can
see significant winds/hail, along with strong tornadoes. This is a
very dynamic system with above normal temperatures and moisture,
which will help increase instability quite a bit tomorrow. Guidance
has been hinting at CAPE values ranging between 1500-2500 J/kg,
which is a bit higher than previous forecast packages, hence the
increasing potential for some significant severe. Wind shear is also
concerning, ranging between 40-60 KTs in the deep layer, with LLVL
shear ranging between 25-40 KTs. This shear in the low levels is
very concerning. Just looking at these parameters and features in
place, this paints a picture for a pretty strong event. With a dive
into the shear profile, hodographs also indicate effective SRH
values ranging between 200-300+. Thus, when putting everything
together, this is why we are expecting a line of supercell
thunderstorms favoring all hazards. Strong winds above the surface
will favor damaging winds, as thunderstorm downdrafts that tap into
the LLJ will help to translate these winds to the surface.

While we can still see some changes in the forecast, it has been
rather consistent through the last week with confidence increasing
daily. Thus, have plans established in the case of severe weather,
especially because tornadoes that develop along the line of
convection may develop rapidly and hold the potential to be strong.
So, in light of Severe Weather Awareness Week, please have your
Weather Radio READY, just in case we see severe weather! Strong to
damaging winds will also be a big threat with these storms, so
secure objects and furniture outside.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

Saturday and Sunday...Potentially wind advisory northwest sfc winds
gusting up to 45 MPH thru late Sat morning. This while wrap around
cold conveyor induced light snow or snow showers get wind-whipped
acrs the landscape. Light snow accumulations of a dusting to a few
tenths possible especially along and north of I-80, but lingering
mild ground and the wind will make for very difficult true
measurements of what will fall. Wind blown falling snow may reduce
visibility at times Sat morning and may have to be addressed in any
wind headlines. Some afternoon clear out, but it still will be brisk
with highs only in the 40s to near 50 in the south. Dry, breezy and
milder on Sunday in pre-frontal warming sector with a return to the
60s for much of the fcst area.

Monday and Tuesday...A front is projected to continue to slide
southward through the area on Monday, making it acrs the southern
CWA by evening. Where it stalls being impacted by incoming upstream
wave will be a big determinator where overrunning and post frontal
showers and a few storms may develop later in the day and into the
evening Monday, and will have to at least chc POPs if not likely by
evening.  Tuesday...an ominous signal indicated by the latest suite
of medium range ensembles of another strong neg tilted cyclone
ejecting out somewhere acrs the mid CONUS -plains/upper midwest.
This system may sprawl out another round of strong to severe storms
and strong gradient winds in or near the local area Tue into early
Wed with current timing. Another warm sector day as well where
currently fcst highs may be a bit too cool.

Wednesday and next Thursday...Depending on the midweek cyclone
timing, Wed could be a windy cooler dry slot day until wrap around
showers possibly skirt acrs the north. Continued cooler and dry
with passing ridge on Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Best cigs/vsby and weather will be next 6 hours or so before IFR
cigs and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
at all TAF sites. Some thunder tonight looks mainly contained to
northern and central sites and should decrease in next few hours.
Into the am decks should lower and then the chance for severe
thunderstorms with possible hail and wind gusts to 65kt are
possible. Timing will be difficult to nail down until storms form.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gunkel
SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010500-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and small hail can be
expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk, or level 4 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening.
The main hazards will be damaging straight line winds of 70 mph,
tornadoes, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

Strong westerly winds are expected after the severe weather
threat ends Friday night, with gusts up to 50 mph. These strong
gusts should last through Saturday morning.

Before the storms arrive Friday, a very high grassland fire danger
is forecast with the warm temperatures and strong winds. Any
fires that occur may be difficult to control.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed Friday afternoon into the
evening.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 PM     HAIL             URBANA                  42.22N 91.88W
03/30/2023  E0.25 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ARG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1218 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-052-053-ILZ001-310600-
Jo Daviess IL-Linn IA-Buchanan IA-Delaware IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-
1218 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Jo
Daviess, southeastern Buchanan, Dubuque, northwestern Jones,
southeastern Delaware and northeastern Linn Counties through 100 AM
CDT...

At 1218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Coggon, or 14 miles south of Manchester, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hopkinton, Delhi and Delaware around 1230 AM CDT.
  Earlville around 1235 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Dyersville,
Worthington, Epworth, Farley, New Vienna, Luxemburg, Holy Cross,
Bankston, Rickardsville, Sherrill, Balltown, Durango and Sageville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9072 4263 9070 4259 9069 4254 9064
      4251 9064 4251 9062 4215 9151 4228 9166
      4265 9114 4265 9090 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 233DEG 58KT 4228 9150

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Gibbs