Tornado Warning 32, NWS Quad Cities, IA

922 
WWUS53 KDVN 312344 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
644 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC015-177-195-010000-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-230401T0000Z/
Whiteside IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
644 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WHITESIDE...CARROLL AND SOUTHERN STEPHENSON COUNTIES...
        
At 644 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Mount Carroll,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Lanark around 655 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Shannon and Albertus Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4220 8969 4193 8969 4193 8963 4177 8963
      4160 9008 4219 9008 4220 8992 4221 8992
      4228 8940 4220 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 224DEG 29KT 4207 8994 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

McClure

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between
KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across
northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran
south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the
50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the
20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through
the area. The overall forcing and wind fields will continue to
support severe storms with damaging winds with the potential for
tornadoes.

Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight.
The entire area will be under a wind advisory with areas north and
east of a line from Independence, IA, to Clinton, IA, to Sterling,
IL starting at 10 PM.

Aloft the models are showing a trop fold moving through the area
during the evening hours. Surface observations in western Iowa
currently do not show anything but there is a possibility for a
period of extremely strong winds this evening that moves from west
to east across the area.

Late tonight into Wednesday very windy conditions will be seen as
strong high pressure moves in behind the strong storm system. Areas
of light rain or a rain/snow mix will be possible after midnight
before downward motions end the precipitation Wednesday morning.

Winds will slowly decrease from west to east Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Very dynamic weather pattern across the country with another
significant storm system expected next week.

Saturday night/Sunday
Assessment...high confidence

High pressure quickly moves through the area Saturday night with
strong southerly return flow developing Sunday. The dry atmosphere
will allow a 30-35 diurnal range from the Sunday morning lows.

Sunday night through Monday night
Assessment...medium to high confidence

A front will move into the area and then stall out. A weak upper
level disturbance will provide enough lift to help generate areas of
rain with the potential for isolated thunderstorms on Monday. Cloud
cover will dictate overall temperatures but there are indications
that temperatures should average above normal, especially at night.
Attention then turns to the significant storm system.

Tuesday through Wednesday
Assessment...high confidence on another storm. Medium confidence
on specific details.

As mentioned earlier the overall flow pattern is very dynamic and
very conducive to generating powerful storm systems. The global
models differ on timing and overall details but agree that another
significant storm system will move through the Midwest.

The global models also agree that the center of the storm system
will pass west of the area. Such a track will place the area in the
warm sector.

A strong upper jet combined with strong forcing and moisture moving
into the area means more thunderstorms. From the large picture, the
setup is very favorable for strong to severe storms occurring. While
the models differ some on timing, Tuesday afternoon and evening
appears to be the most likely time for thunderstorms when the strong
cold front moves through the area.

If there is a strong dry punch with this storm system, a period of
dry conditions are possible Tuesday evening before wrap around
clouds and precipitation move into the area.

Right now the model consensus has likely to categorical pops Tuesday
and Tuesday night with slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday.

Conditions look very favorable for windy to very windy conditions
developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be well above normal on Tuesday and much colder on
Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday
Assessment...medium confidence

Mainly dry conditions will be seen for a majority of the period as
high pressure moves through the area. There is a weak upper level
disturbance moving through the area late Thursday night into Friday
that 'may' develop sprinkles or isolated showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Squall line will continue to race across northern Illinois through
03z/01. Behind the line VFR conditions will be seen up through
about 06z/01 before MVFR CIGS and a patchy rain/snow mix develops.
Strong winds overnight will result in considerable low level
mechanical turbulence. Very strong winds will continue through
18z/01 with MVFR conditions with improvement to VFR after 18z/01.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     Buchanan-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-
     Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     Carroll-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Warren.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk, or level 4 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main hazards will be damaging straight line winds of 75 mph,
tornadoes, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

The thunderstorms will be very fast moving, from southwest to
northeast at 60 mph.

Before the storms arrive, a very high grassland fire danger is
forecast due to the warm temperatures and strong winds. Any fires
that occur may be difficult to control and burning should be
avoided today.

Strong gradient southwest winds are expected this afternoon and
tonight with gusts up to 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Strong northwest winds gusting up to 50 mph will continue through
much of Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE CORALVILLE        41.68N 91.58W
03/31/2023                   JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSS TORNADO MULTIPLE BUILDINGS DOWN,
            COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS SOME APTS MISSING
            ROOFS.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW ELEANOR            40.94N 90.75W
03/31/2023                   WARREN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOPS SNAPPED OUT OF TREES. ESTIMATED WINDS
            OF 70 TO 75 MPH.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             BETTENDORF              41.56N 90.48W
03/31/2023  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              IA   PUBLIC

            4015 WAKONDA DRIVE.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW ELEANOR            40.94N 90.75W
03/31/2023                   WARREN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS THE TIME OF THE TSTM WND DMG REPORT
            FROM 4 SW ELEANOR. TOPS SNAPPED OUT OF
            TREES. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 70 TO 75 MPH.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             2 E PREEMPTION          41.31N 90.55W
03/31/2023  E0.25 INCH       MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             2 E SPRING LAKE         41.51N 90.68W
03/31/2023  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW