Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

690 
WWUS53 KDVN 311820
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
120 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311900-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
120 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 120 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lima, or 8
miles northeast of Canton, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Sutter around 125 PM CDT.
  West Point and Stillwell around 130 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Denver, Elvaston, Basco, Bentley, Carthage, Ferris, Burnside, Adrian,
Webster and Fountain Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois...southeastern Iowa...and northeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 9151 4024 9151 4026 9149 4064 9117
      4055 9092 4026 9091 4019 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 220DEG 54KT 4018 9138 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

305 
WWUS53 KDVN 311826
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
126 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311900-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
126 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 126 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sutter, or 12
miles southeast of Keokuk, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  West Point around 130 PM CDT.
  Denver, Elvaston, Basco and Bentley around 135 PM CDT.
  Carthage and Ferris around 140 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Burnside, Adrian, Webster and Fountain Green.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois...and southeastern Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 9138 4023 9143 4026 9149 4064 9117
      4055 9092 4026 9091 4019 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 220DEG 54KT 4025 9130 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

891 
WWUS53 KDVN 311831
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
131 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311900-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
131 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 131 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Elvaston, or 7
miles southeast of Keokuk, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Elvaston around 135 PM CDT.
  Carthage and Ferris around 140 PM CDT.
  Adrian, Burnside and Colusa around 145 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Dallas City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois...and southeastern Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 9118 4025 9134 4032 9144 4064 9117
      4055 9092 4026 9091 4019 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 211DEG 54KT 4035 9130 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

966 
WWUS53 KDVN 311835
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
135 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311900-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
135 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 135 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elvaston, or
near Carthage, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Carthage and Ferris around 140 PM CDT.
  Adrian, Burnside and Colusa around 145 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Dallas City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 9119 4029 9128 4036 9140 4064 9117
      4055 9092 4030 9091 4027 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 211DEG 54KT 4039 9126 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

116 
WWUS53 KDVN 311841
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
141 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311900-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
141 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 141 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ferris, or 7
miles northwest of Carthage, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Colusa and Burnside around 145 PM CDT.
  Dallas City around 150 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 9119 4043 9134 4064 9117 4058 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 217DEG 56KT 4049 9122 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

479 
WWUS53 KDVN 311846
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
146 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311900-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
146 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 146 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Colusa, or 10
miles north of Carthage, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Hancock County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 4046 9115 4050 9128 4064 9117 4058 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 217DEG 56KT 4056 9116 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ervin

786 
WWUS53 KDVN 311852
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
152 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC067-311901-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Hancock IL-
152 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds are still possible with
this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4046 9115 4050 9128 4064 9117 4058 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 220DEG 54KT 4062 9110 

$$

Ervin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1236 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Showers and storms associated with warm advection moved out of the
area early this morning. To our west, strong WAA led to temps in
the 50s and 60s with dewpoint temps in the 50s to near 60. Drier
air remained in place locally but that will soon change. To the
west a strong wave was ejecting out into the plains. A sfc low
over Nebraska is expected to move across the area and bring
showers and severe storms today for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Key messages:

1. Any thunderstorm that forms today will likely be strong or
severe.

2. Two waves of severe storms possible

Discussion:

Still a few scenarios plausible with the severe threat today.
While there is still some uncertainty as to what the evolution of
today's event will be, what is certain is that the environment is
ripe for severe thunderstorms. Overall synoptic setup is prime
for severe weather. A strongly forced upper level wave will
overspread an unstable warm sector at peak heating. This lift is
aided by the left exit region of the upper level jet interacting
with the upper level wave swinging negatively tilted across our
area. Strong shear exists for storms. To the west, a cold front
will approach the area and also aide in lift. Everything is there
for a severe weather outbreak. Storms in this environment will
have rigorous updrafts and will quickly become strong to severe.
They will also be fast moving and if you hear thunder it will be
too late to shelter. Stay weather aware today!!!

Latest suite of CAMs, along with run to run consistency of the
HRRR and even some of the global models paint early CI in eastern
KS with storms ripping northeast towards our area. If this
occurs, then we could see storms move into our area after 18z.
These storms will have better low level curvature to work with as
the low deepens to our west backing sfc winds. This would lead to
a decent tornado risk. CAMs have strong midlevel rotation with
these storms, so a sfc based storm here would be a decent shot at
long lived supercell, just before the main wave arrives. LCLs are
low enough for a strong tornado in this scenario. Need to keep an
eye on the CAM trends, but currently this threat area looks to be
along and south of I80. The main question here for me is SBCAPE
and sfc based storms. If we clear out, game on, if you don't,
supplemental soundings will up us determine any cap. Soundings do
have a cap for sb storms that quickly erodes and any sun would
help this happen quicker. The current runs of the HRRR have very
strong midlevel mesos over IL. I think the best area for strong
tornadoes in our area is located east of a line from Memphis, MO
to Walcott, IA to Milledgeville, IL. We may see more tornadoes
with the line later, but the stronger ones will likely be along
and east of the Mississippi River.

After this, cloud cover could inhibit new storm development west
of the area. Guidance is still bullish on a second wave
developing. The strong lift causing the second wave will also lead
to tons of updrafts to our west. Short-lived supercell threat
turns linear quick as 0-6km shear vectors are mostly parallel to
forcing. Winds and QLCS tornadoes are possible with this second
round of storms in the evening. This early to mid afternoon
convection is the one I am most concerned about. Intensive
mesoanalysis will be required for this storm system.

Also with strong winds forecast, have issued a wind advisory for
today into tomorrow for portions of the area. Could see gusts this
afternoon and more likely overnight into Saturday in the 50 mph
range. This could hamper any storm clean up and lead to falling
branches after the storms. Dry fuels will also combine to create
very high fire danger in the advisory area. Be sure to avoid
burning today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Key messages:

1) Windy and colder on Saturday as we begin the month of April

2) Much warmer Sunday and into next week

3) Intense storm system with a severe thunderstorm threat on Tuesday

Details:

Saturday: As the intense system tracks through the Great Lakes
region colder and windy weather expected. Northwest winds will be
gusting to around 45 mph in the morning, then decreasing in the
afternoon. A wind advisory will be in effect for the morning hours
for locations south of Hwy 30. There may also be a mix of rain and
snow across northwest Illinois in the morning. Highs should only be
in the 40s.

Sunday: The pattern quickly becomes a zonal flow allowing for a
rapid warm-up on gusty south winds. Highs will be pushing into the
60s at most locations.

Monday through Tuesday: Global models indicate another deep trough
diving into the Rockies then lifting a negative-tilt trough into the
northern Plains/Midwest. Intense low pressure (979 mb) is expected
to track from the southern Plains to western Minnesota with the dvn
cwa squarely in the warm sector. Highs will be soaring well into the
70s to around 80 on Tuesday. This sets-up the area for the
possibility of another severe weather outbreak but too early for
details. Strong warm air advection may lead to thunderstorm chances
as early as Monday.

Mid to late week: Major pattern change to colder weather with below
normal temperatures expected to last into mid April, as we get into
a more substantial northwest flow.

Haase

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Two rounds of severe storms will sweep through eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois through 00z/01. MVFR/VFR conditions will be
interspersed with IFR conditions in TSRA. After 00z/01 strong
gradient winds will begin developing that will cause considerable
low level mechanical turbulence. Widespread MVFR conditions will
then spread from west to east with wrap around clouds through
12z/01. Conditions will improve back to VFR after 18z/01.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-
     Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Warren.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk, or level 4 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main hazards will be damaging straight line winds of 75 mph,
tornadoes, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

The thunderstorms will be very fast moving, from southwest to
northeast at 60 mph.

Before the storms arrive, a very high grassland fire danger is
forecast due to the warm temperatures and strong winds. Any fires
that occur may be difficult to control and burning should be
avoided today.

Strong gradient southwest winds are expected this afternoon and
tonight with gusts up to 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Strong northwest winds gusting up to 50 mph will continue through
much of Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Haase