Tornado Warning 5, NWS Quad Cities, IA

397 
WWUS53 KDVN 312010
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
310 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC071-312020-
/O.CAN.KDVN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230331T2045Z/
Henderson IL-
310 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
and west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 4074 9079 4098 9079 4107 9067 4091 9044
      4089 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 227DEG 37KT 4085 9073 

$$

ILC187-312045-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230331T2045Z/
Warren IL-
310 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WARREN COUNTY...
    
At 310 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Kirkwood, or near Monmouth, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Ormonde around 315 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Monmouth, Monmouth Municipal Airport, Eleanor, Lake Warren, Gerlaw,
Cameron and Coldbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 9079 4098 9079 4107 9067 4091 9044
      4089 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 227DEG 37KT 4085 9073 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Uttech

092 
WWUS53 KDVN 312021
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
321 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC187-312045-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230331T2045Z/
Warren IL-
321 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
WARREN COUNTY...
    
At 321 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Monmouth Municipal Airport, or near Monmouth, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Coldbrook around 325 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4080 9067 4089 9076 4104 9063 4091 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 230DEG 35KT 4092 9058 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Uttech

403 
WWUS53 KDVN 312032
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
332 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC187-312045-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230331T2045Z/
Warren IL-
332 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY...
    
At 331 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Coldbrook, or 7 miles west of Galesburg, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Warren County, including the following locations...
Coldbrook, Gerlaw and Monmouth Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 9060 4091 9067 4101 9058 4093 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 232DEG 41KT 4097 9052 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Uttech

118 
WWUS53 KDVN 312038
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
338 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC187-312047-
/O.EXP.KDVN.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230331T2045Z/
Warren IL-
338 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
345 PM CDT...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for west central
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4085 9060 4091 9067 4101 9058 4093 9047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 228DEG 33KT 4100 9048 

$$

Uttech

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1236 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Showers and storms associated with warm advection moved out of the
area early this morning. To our west, strong WAA led to temps in
the 50s and 60s with dewpoint temps in the 50s to near 60. Drier
air remained in place locally but that will soon change. To the
west a strong wave was ejecting out into the plains. A sfc low
over Nebraska is expected to move across the area and bring
showers and severe storms today for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Key messages:

1. Any thunderstorm that forms today will likely be strong or
severe.

2. Two waves of severe storms possible

Discussion:

Still a few scenarios plausible with the severe threat today.
While there is still some uncertainty as to what the evolution of
today's event will be, what is certain is that the environment is
ripe for severe thunderstorms. Overall synoptic setup is prime
for severe weather. A strongly forced upper level wave will
overspread an unstable warm sector at peak heating. This lift is
aided by the left exit region of the upper level jet interacting
with the upper level wave swinging negatively tilted across our
area. Strong shear exists for storms. To the west, a cold front
will approach the area and also aide in lift. Everything is there
for a severe weather outbreak. Storms in this environment will
have rigorous updrafts and will quickly become strong to severe.
They will also be fast moving and if you hear thunder it will be
too late to shelter. Stay weather aware today!!!

Latest suite of CAMs, along with run to run consistency of the
HRRR and even some of the global models paint early CI in eastern
KS with storms ripping northeast towards our area. If this
occurs, then we could see storms move into our area after 18z.
These storms will have better low level curvature to work with as
the low deepens to our west backing sfc winds. This would lead to
a decent tornado risk. CAMs have strong midlevel rotation with
these storms, so a sfc based storm here would be a decent shot at
long lived supercell, just before the main wave arrives. LCLs are
low enough for a strong tornado in this scenario. Need to keep an
eye on the CAM trends, but currently this threat area looks to be
along and south of I80. The main question here for me is SBCAPE
and sfc based storms. If we clear out, game on, if you don't,
supplemental soundings will up us determine any cap. Soundings do
have a cap for sb storms that quickly erodes and any sun would
help this happen quicker. The current runs of the HRRR have very
strong midlevel mesos over IL. I think the best area for strong
tornadoes in our area is located east of a line from Memphis, MO
to Walcott, IA to Milledgeville, IL. We may see more tornadoes
with the line later, but the stronger ones will likely be along
and east of the Mississippi River.

After this, cloud cover could inhibit new storm development west
of the area. Guidance is still bullish on a second wave
developing. The strong lift causing the second wave will also lead
to tons of updrafts to our west. Short-lived supercell threat
turns linear quick as 0-6km shear vectors are mostly parallel to
forcing. Winds and QLCS tornadoes are possible with this second
round of storms in the evening. This early to mid afternoon
convection is the one I am most concerned about. Intensive
mesoanalysis will be required for this storm system.

Also with strong winds forecast, have issued a wind advisory for
today into tomorrow for portions of the area. Could see gusts this
afternoon and more likely overnight into Saturday in the 50 mph
range. This could hamper any storm clean up and lead to falling
branches after the storms. Dry fuels will also combine to create
very high fire danger in the advisory area. Be sure to avoid
burning today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Key messages:

1) Windy and colder on Saturday as we begin the month of April

2) Much warmer Sunday and into next week

3) Intense storm system with a severe thunderstorm threat on Tuesday

Details:

Saturday: As the intense system tracks through the Great Lakes
region colder and windy weather expected. Northwest winds will be
gusting to around 45 mph in the morning, then decreasing in the
afternoon. A wind advisory will be in effect for the morning hours
for locations south of Hwy 30. There may also be a mix of rain and
snow across northwest Illinois in the morning. Highs should only be
in the 40s.

Sunday: The pattern quickly becomes a zonal flow allowing for a
rapid warm-up on gusty south winds. Highs will be pushing into the
60s at most locations.

Monday through Tuesday: Global models indicate another deep trough
diving into the Rockies then lifting a negative-tilt trough into the
northern Plains/Midwest. Intense low pressure (979 mb) is expected
to track from the southern Plains to western Minnesota with the dvn
cwa squarely in the warm sector. Highs will be soaring well into the
70s to around 80 on Tuesday. This sets-up the area for the
possibility of another severe weather outbreak but too early for
details. Strong warm air advection may lead to thunderstorm chances
as early as Monday.

Mid to late week: Major pattern change to colder weather with below
normal temperatures expected to last into mid April, as we get into
a more substantial northwest flow.

Haase

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Two rounds of severe storms will sweep through eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois through 00z/01. MVFR/VFR conditions will be
interspersed with IFR conditions in TSRA. After 00z/01 strong
gradient winds will begin developing that will cause considerable
low level mechanical turbulence. Widespread MVFR conditions will
then spread from west to east with wrap around clouds through
12z/01. Conditions will improve back to VFR after 18z/01.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-
     Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Warren.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk, or level 4 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main hazards will be damaging straight line winds of 75 mph,
tornadoes, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

The thunderstorms will be very fast moving, from southwest to
northeast at 60 mph.

Before the storms arrive, a very high grassland fire danger is
forecast due to the warm temperatures and strong winds. Any fires
that occur may be difficult to control and burning should be
avoided today.

Strong gradient southwest winds are expected this afternoon and
tonight with gusts up to 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Strong northwest winds gusting up to 50 mph will continue through
much of Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
159 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 PM     HAIL             2 NNE SPERRY            40.97N 91.14W
03/31/2023  M0.70 INCH       DES MOINES         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             1 WSW NEW LONDON        40.92N 91.43W
03/31/2023  M1.00 INCH       HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
211 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ANTIOCH                 40.31N 91.69W
03/31/2023                   CLARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN OVER HIGHWAY 81. PUBLIC REPORT
            RELAYED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

RP KINNEY