Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Quad Cities, IA

March 31, 2023Carroll County, Henry County, Whiteside County, Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 31, 2023, 6:42 PM CDT for Carroll County, Henry County, Whiteside County, Illinois. It was in force for 18 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2023, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2023, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 18 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Damage threat: Considerable
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Carroll County, IL, Henry County, IL, Whiteside County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 31, 11:46 AM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 897 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 433 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 424 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 31, 6:28 PM CDT, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 6:28 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between
KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across
northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran
south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the
50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the
20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through
the area. The overall forcing and wind fields will continue to
support severe storms with damaging winds with the potential for
tornadoes.

Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight.
The entire area will be under a wind advisory with areas north and
east of a line from Independence, IA, to Clinton, IA, to Sterling,
IL starting at 10 PM.

Aloft the models are showing a trop fold moving through the area
during the evening hours. Surface observations in western Iowa
currently do not show anything but there is a possibility for a
period of extremely strong winds this evening that moves from west
to east across the area.

Late tonight into Wednesday very windy conditions will be seen as
strong high pressure moves in behind the strong storm system. Areas
of light rain or a rain/snow mix will be possible after midnight
before downward motions end the precipitation Wednesday morning.

Winds will slowly decrease from west to east Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Very dynamic weather pattern across the country with another
significant storm system expected next week.

Saturday night/Sunday
Assessment...high confidence

High pressure quickly moves through the area Saturday night with
strong southerly return flow developing Sunday. The dry atmosphere
will allow a 30-35 diurnal range from the Sunday morning lows.

Sunday night through Monday night
Assessment...medium to high confidence

A front will move into the area and then stall out. A weak upper
level disturbance will provide enough lift to help generate areas of
rain with the potential for isolated thunderstorms on Monday. Cloud
cover will dictate overall temperatures but there are indications
that temperatures should average above normal, especially at night.
Attention then turns to the significant storm system.

Tuesday through Wednesday
Assessment...high confidence on another storm. Medium confidence
on specific details.

As mentioned earlier the overall flow pattern is very dynamic and
very conducive to generating powerful storm systems. The global
models differ on timing and overall details but agree that another
significant storm system will move through the Midwest.

The global models also agree that the center of the storm system
will pass west of the area. Such a track will place the area in the
warm sector.

A strong upper jet combined with strong forcing and moisture moving
into the area means more thunderstorms. From the large picture, the
setup is very favorable for strong to severe storms occurring. While
the models differ some on timing, Tuesday afternoon and evening
appears to be the most likely time for thunderstorms when the strong
cold front moves through the area.

If there is a strong dry punch with this storm system, a period of
dry conditions are possible Tuesday evening before wrap around
clouds and precipitation move into the area.

Right now the model consensus has likely to categorical pops Tuesday
and Tuesday night with slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday.

Conditions look very favorable for windy to very windy conditions
developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be well above normal on Tuesday and much colder on
Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday
Assessment...medium confidence

Mainly dry conditions will be seen for a majority of the period as
high pressure moves through the area. There is a weak upper level
disturbance moving through the area late Thursday night into Friday
that 'may' develop sprinkles or isolated showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Squall line will continue to race across northern Illinois through
03z/01. Behind the line VFR conditions will be seen up through
about 06z/01 before MVFR CIGS and a patchy rain/snow mix develops.
Strong winds overnight will result in considerable low level
mechanical turbulence. Very strong winds will continue through
18z/01 with MVFR conditions with improvement to VFR after 18z/01.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     Buchanan-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-
     Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     Carroll-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Warren.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 3:42 AM CDT, 15 hours before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk, or level 4 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main hazards will be damaging straight line winds of 75 mph,
tornadoes, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

The thunderstorms will be very fast moving, from southwest to
northeast at 60 mph.

Before the storms arrive, a very high grassland fire danger is
forecast due to the warm temperatures and strong winds. Any fires
that occur may be difficult to control and burning should be
avoided today.

Strong gradient southwest winds are expected this afternoon and
tonight with gusts up to 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Strong northwest winds gusting up to 50 mph will continue through
much of Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Haase

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:25 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             BETTENDORF              41.56N 90.48W
03/31/2023  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              IA   PUBLIC

            4015 WAKONDA DRIVE.

&&

MW

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:27 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW ELEANOR            40.94N 90.75W
03/31/2023                   WARREN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS THE TIME OF THE TSTM WND DMG REPORT
            FROM 4 SW ELEANOR. TOPS SNAPPED OUT OF
            TREES. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 70 TO 75 MPH.

&&

DC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:31 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     HAIL             2 E PREEMPTION          41.31N 90.55W
03/31/2023  E0.25 INCH       MERCER             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:35 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             2 E SPRING LAKE         41.51N 90.68W
03/31/2023  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MW

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:38 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARRISON                42.14N 92.14W
03/31/2023                   BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED NEAR 70 MPH WINDS. LARGE BARN WAS
            DAMAGED, TRAILER DAMAGED, TREE BRANCHES
            DOWN, AND AN OUTBUILDING WITH DAMAGE.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

TJG

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:40 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE CAMANCHE          41.79N 90.26W
03/31/2023  E50 MPH          CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50+ MPH WINDS AND RAIN COMING IN ALL
            DIRECTIONS SHAKING THE CAR NEAR FOLLETTS,
            IA.

&&

MW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 12:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Delaware, Dubuque	42 min
Mar 31, 3:11 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Des Moines and 15 more	34 hr
Mar 31, 1:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Lee	24 min
Mar 31, 2:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Louisa, Muscatine	38 min
Mar 31, 2:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Louisa, Scott	45 min
Mar 31, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Scott	49 min
Mar 31, 3:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Clinton, Scott	49 min
Mar 31, 3:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Jefferson, Keokuk, Washington	40 min
Mar 31, 3:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Iowa	52 min
Mar 31, 4:02 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Benton, Iowa	43 min
Mar 31, 4:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	DVN	Iowa, Johnson, Keokuk, Washington	40 min
Mar 31, 4:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Benton	33 min
Mar 31, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Jefferson, Keokuk, Van Buren, Washington	31 min
Mar 31, 4:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	DVN	Iowa, Johnson, Washington	48 min
Mar 31, 4:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Linn	28 min
Mar 31, 4:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Johnson, Louisa, Washington	25 min
Mar 31, 4:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Linn	19 min
Mar 31, 4:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Henry, Jefferson, Van Buren	45 min
Mar 31, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	DVN	Benton, Buchanan, Delaware, Iowa, Linn	55 min
Mar 31, 4:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Cedar, Johnson, Linn	24 min
Mar 31, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Benton, Iowa, Jefferson, Johnson, Keokuk, Linn and 1 more	48 min
Mar 31, 4:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Cedar, Johnson, Muscatine	33 min
Mar 31, 5:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Cedar, Johnson, Jones, Linn	35 min
Mar 31, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson, Johnson and 2 more	43 min
Mar 31, 5:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Cedar, Muscatine, Scott	28 min
Mar 31, 5:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Jackson, Jones	24 min
Mar 31, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Johnson, Louisa and 2 more	38 min
Mar 31, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Lee	51 min
Mar 31, 5:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Delaware	49 min
Mar 31, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Delaware, Dubuque, Jones	39 min
Mar 31, 5:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Scott	38 min
Mar 31, 5:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Jackson, Jones	50 min
Mar 31, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	DVN	Clinton, Dubuque, Jackson	61 min
Mar 31, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Clinton, Muscatine, Scott	45 min
Mar 31, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	DVN	Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque, Jackson and 2 more	51 min
Mar 31, 5:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Louisa	26 min
Mar 31, 5:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Clinton, Jackson	24 min
Mar 31, 5:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Clinton, Muscatine, Scott	46 min
Mar 31, 6:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Dubuque, Jackson	35 min
Mar 31, 6:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Clinton, Jackson	32 min
Mar 31, 6:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Clinton, Jackson	27 min
Mar 31, 1:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Hancock	47 min
Mar 31, 2:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Henderson, Warren	46 min
Mar 31, 3:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Bureau, Putnam	44 min
Mar 31, 3:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Bureau, Henry	40 min
Mar 31, 4:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Carroll, Whiteside	33 min
Mar 31, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Bureau	19 min
Mar 31, 4:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Bureau, Henry	50 min
Mar 31, 5:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren	34 min
Mar 31, 6:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Bureau, Henry, Whiteside	31 min
Mar 31, 6:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Bureau, Henry	28 min
Mar 31, 6:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Carroll, Stephenson, Whiteside	25 min
Mar 31, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Bureau, Henry, Putnam, Whiteside	54 min
Mar 31, 6:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Jo Daviess, Stephenson	37 min
Mar 31, 6:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Bureau, Henry, Whiteside	15 min
Mar 31, 6:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DVN	Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Whiteside	42 min
Mar 31, 6:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	DVN	Carroll, Stephenson	25 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.