Tornado Warning 25, NWS Quad Cities, IA

471 
WWUS53 KDVN 312258
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
558 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC131-312308-
/O.CAN.KDVN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230331T2330Z/
Mercer IL-
558 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4159 9019 4158 9018 4156 9018 4152 9028
      4151 9036 4148 9037 4147 9040 4133 9076
      4133 9084 4156 9099 4160 9092 4160 9090
      4161 9090 4189 9045 4159 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 234DEG 49KT 4154 9073 

$$

ILC161-IAC045-139-163-312330-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230331T2330Z/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-Muscatine IA-Clinton IA-
558 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR ROCK
ISLAND...SCOTT...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON
COUNTIES...
    
At 558 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over West Lake Park, or near Davenport, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
  Davenport, Eldridge, Long Grove, Riverdale, Panorama Park, 
  Davenport Municipal Airport, Rock Island Arsenal, Bettendorf, Park 
  View, Scott County Park, Pleasant Valley, Le Claire, Port Byron, 
  Princeton, McCausland, Cordova, Rock Creek Marina and Campground, 
  Rock Creek  Park, Folletts, Princeton Wildlife Area and Malone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 9019 4158 9018 4156 9018 4152 9028
      4151 9036 4148 9037 4147 9040 4133 9076
      4133 9084 4156 9099 4160 9092 4160 9090
      4161 9090 4189 9045 4159 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 234DEG 49KT 4154 9073 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Uttech

193 
WWUS53 KDVN 312311 RRA
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
611 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAC139-312321-
/O.CAN.KDVN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230331T2330Z/
Muscatine IA-
611 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4159 9019 4158 9018 4156 9018 4152 9028
      4151 9036 4148 9037 4147 9040 4133 9076
      4133 9077 4168 9074 4172 9073 4189 9045
      4159 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 245DEG 48KT 4154 9047 

$$

ILC161-IAC045-163-312330-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230331T2330Z/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-Clinton IA-
611 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
ROCK ISLAND...SCOTT AND SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES...
    
At 611 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Riverdale, or over Bettendorf, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, Bettendorf, East Moline, Silvis,
Eldridge, DeWitt, Milan, Le Claire, Coal Valley, Hampton, Port Byron,
Blue Grass, Buffalo, Andalusia, Rapids City, Princeton, Long Grove
and Cordova.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 9019 4158 9018 4156 9018 4152 9028
      4151 9036 4148 9037 4147 9040 4133 9076
      4133 9077 4168 9074 4172 9073 4189 9045
      4159 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 245DEG 48KT 4154 9047 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Uttech

576 
WWUS53 KDVN 312327
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
627 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAC045-163-ILC161-312336-
/O.EXP.KDVN.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-230331T2330Z/
Rock Island IL-Scott IA-Clinton IA-
627 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN ROCK ISLAND...SCOTT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning will be 
allowed to expire. However, damaging winds remain possible and a 
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Illinois...and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4159 9019 4158 9018 4156 9018 4152 9028
      4151 9036 4148 9037 4147 9040 4133 9076
      4133 9077 4168 9074 4172 9073 4189 9045
      4159 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 236DEG 50KT 4164 9027 

$$

Uttech

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
303 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

18z surface data has strong low pressure in western Iowa between
KSLB and KCIN. The warm front ran east from the storm across
northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. The strong cold front ran
south from the low through western Missouri. Dew points were in the
50s and 60s east of the low into the Ohio Valley. Dew points in the
20s and 30s were behind the cold front in the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Through 8 PM severe storms along the cold front will sweep through
the area. The overall forcing and wind fields will continue to
support severe storms with damaging winds with the potential for
tornadoes.

Behind the cold front winds will increase considerably overnight.
The entire area will be under a wind advisory with areas north and
east of a line from Independence, IA, to Clinton, IA, to Sterling,
IL starting at 10 PM.

Aloft the models are showing a trop fold moving through the area
during the evening hours. Surface observations in western Iowa
currently do not show anything but there is a possibility for a
period of extremely strong winds this evening that moves from west
to east across the area.

Late tonight into Wednesday very windy conditions will be seen as
strong high pressure moves in behind the strong storm system. Areas
of light rain or a rain/snow mix will be possible after midnight
before downward motions end the precipitation Wednesday morning.

Winds will slowly decrease from west to east Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Very dynamic weather pattern across the country with another
significant storm system expected next week.

Saturday night/Sunday
Assessment...high confidence

High pressure quickly moves through the area Saturday night with
strong southerly return flow developing Sunday. The dry atmosphere
will allow a 30-35 diurnal range from the Sunday morning lows.

Sunday night through Monday night
Assessment...medium to high confidence

A front will move into the area and then stall out. A weak upper
level disturbance will provide enough lift to help generate areas of
rain with the potential for isolated thunderstorms on Monday. Cloud
cover will dictate overall temperatures but there are indications
that temperatures should average above normal, especially at night.
Attention then turns to the significant storm system.

Tuesday through Wednesday
Assessment...high confidence on another storm. Medium confidence
on specific details.

As mentioned earlier the overall flow pattern is very dynamic and
very conducive to generating powerful storm systems. The global
models differ on timing and overall details but agree that another
significant storm system will move through the Midwest.

The global models also agree that the center of the storm system
will pass west of the area. Such a track will place the area in the
warm sector.

A strong upper jet combined with strong forcing and moisture moving
into the area means more thunderstorms. From the large picture, the
setup is very favorable for strong to severe storms occurring. While
the models differ some on timing, Tuesday afternoon and evening
appears to be the most likely time for thunderstorms when the strong
cold front moves through the area.

If there is a strong dry punch with this storm system, a period of
dry conditions are possible Tuesday evening before wrap around
clouds and precipitation move into the area.

Right now the model consensus has likely to categorical pops Tuesday
and Tuesday night with slight chance to chance pops on Wednesday.

Conditions look very favorable for windy to very windy conditions
developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be well above normal on Tuesday and much colder on
Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday
Assessment...medium confidence

Mainly dry conditions will be seen for a majority of the period as
high pressure moves through the area. There is a weak upper level
disturbance moving through the area late Thursday night into Friday
that 'may' develop sprinkles or isolated showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Two rounds of severe storms will sweep through eastern Iowa and
northern Illinois through 00z/01. MVFR/VFR conditions will be
interspersed with IFR conditions in TSRA. After 00z/01 strong
gradient winds will begin developing that will cause considerable
low level mechanical turbulence. Widespread MVFR conditions will
then spread from west to east with wrap around clouds through
12z/01. Conditions will improve back to VFR after 18z/01.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     Buchanan-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-
     Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday for
     Carroll-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-
     Warren.

MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-010845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
342 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk, or level 4 out
of 5, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main hazards will be damaging straight line winds of 75 mph,
tornadoes, and large hail. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

The thunderstorms will be very fast moving, from southwest to
northeast at 60 mph.

Before the storms arrive, a very high grassland fire danger is
forecast due to the warm temperatures and strong winds. Any fires
that occur may be difficult to control and burning should be
avoided today.

Strong gradient southwest winds are expected this afternoon and
tonight with gusts up to 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Strong northwest winds gusting up to 50 mph will continue through
much of Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Haase

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             WILTON                  41.59N 91.03W
03/31/2023  M0.25 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRING RIGHT NOW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     HAIL             2 ESE MOUNT AUBURN      42.24N 92.05W
03/31/2023  E0.25 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HVY RAIN.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
538 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     TSTM WND GST     YARMOUTH                41.03N 91.32W
03/31/2023  M61 MPH          DES MOINES         IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS JUNCTION       41.28N 91.36W
03/31/2023  E1.00 INCH       LOUISA             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SC556 STORM CHASER.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW KAHOKA             40.43N 91.72W
03/31/2023                   CLARK              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LIGHT DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS, SIGNS BLOWN DOWN,
            AND 3-8 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. ESTIMATE NEAR
            70-80 MPH WINDS.

&&

TJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
545 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND GST     CEDAR RAPIDS MUNICIPALI 41.88N 91.72W
03/31/2023  M69 MPH          LINN               IA   ASOS

            ASOS.

&&