Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1244 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms with some severe thunderstorms
with damaging wind, large hail and tornado potential continues to
move east across Central Alabama. Improving conditions will
continue across our northwest counties and will expand further
east through the afternoon hours. There will be potential for a
few showers and storms ahead of the cold front as it advances
east, but much of the instability has been consumed. Ahead of
this activity, a weakly capped environment will continue to allow
instability to build with severe weather potential increasing
across our southern and eastern counties ahead of the line of
storms.

We will see improving conditions areawide by mid to late evening
with only a small chance for a few lingering showers across the
northeast. Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of
storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward
daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across
the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest
of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower
40s.

Enough moisture is expected to rotate back into portions of the
northern and eastern counties very early Friday morning that may
produce some light drizzle mixed with flurries. No accumulations
are expected given how warm we have been recently. This risk will
taper off by late morning as temperatures struggle to climb,
reaching around 40 northwest and in to the mid 40s across the
central and southeast counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

Friday through Wednesday.

Any lingering showers due to wrap around moisture should lift out of
our area by late Friday morning. Temperatures will be dropping
through the day on Friday with Friday night/Saturday morning low
temperatures expected to be in the 20s area-wide. Dry and colder
weather will continue through the weekend with increasing rain
chances through the early part of next week as a trough lifts
through the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. The path of this
system is pretty far north and most of the dynamics remain displaced
well to the north, so not expecting any potential for strong storms
with it. Thunderstorms probabilities remain minimal due to the
limited instability, so we'll continue to leave any mention of
thunderstorms out of the forecast Monday through Wednesday as the
frontal boundary moves into our area, stalls, then potentially lifts
back northward. Given the uncertainty in timing of the front and
where/if it stalls, the rain chances remain fairly broad through
early next week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A line of rain with thunderstorms, some severe, will continue
moving east across the area. TCL will be impacted by nearby TS
through 19z followed by an end to the thunderstorm activity.
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB will continue to be impacted through 20z followed
by decreased thunderstorm activity. MGM and TOI will be impacted
over the early afternoon hours. Low clouds will persist across the
area though rain and storms will push to the east. More moisture
may return overnight into early Friday morning near BHM/ASN/ANB.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of strong to severe showers and storms will move through
the area today, with breezy winds outside of any thunderstorms as
well. Colder and drier air moves in for Friday with afternoon RH
values in the 45 to 55 percent range and northwesterly 20ft winds
around 10 to 12 mph. Afternoon RH values will be in the 30 to 40
percent range over the weekend with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     35  42  25  47 /  20  20   0   0
Anniston    37  43  27  47 /  20  20   0   0
Birmingham  36  42  28  48 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  37  44  27  50 /  10  10   0   0
Calera      37  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      39  44  28  49 /  40  10   0   0
Montgomery  40  46  28  51 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        40  46  28  51 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-131200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
257 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday generally from 9 am
through 7 pm as a cold front moves through the area. The main
concern will be damaging winds, though a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, along with isolated hail up to 1 inch.

Strong gusty winds are expected for much of the day across Central
Alabama well in advance of any thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
123 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TORNADO          3 E NEW PROSPECT        32.66N 86.49W
01/12/2023                   AUTAUGA            AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERE DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG CR 68 IN THE
            AREA OF US 31.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
130 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N HOWELL'S COVE       33.50N 86.16W
01/12/2023                   TALLADEGA          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG HOWELL COVE ROAD AT GLADE
            ROAD AND ALONG STEMLEY BRIDGE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
134 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     TORNADO          4 W TITUS               32.71N 86.38W
01/12/2023                   ELMORE             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TORNADO OBSERVED CROSSING LIGHTWOOD ROAD.
            TDS OBSERVED. HEAVY DAMAGE AT COOSA RIVER
            ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
147 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     TORNADO          1 WNW TITUS             32.72N 86.34W
01/12/2023                   ELMORE             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HEAVY DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG KELLY ROAD IN
            THE TITUS COMMUNITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             RUSSELL FIELD AIRPORT   32.93N 85.96W
01/12/2023  E1.00 INCH       TALLAPOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ALEXANDER
            CITY.

&&

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