Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
242 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms with some severe thunderstorms
with damaging wind, large hail and tornado potential continues to
move east across Central Alabama. Improving conditions will
continue across our northwest counties and will expand further
east through the afternoon hours. There will be potential for a
few showers and storms ahead of the cold front as it advances
east, but much of the instability has been consumed. Ahead of
this activity, a weakly capped environment will continue to allow
instability to build with severe weather potential increasing
across our southern and eastern counties ahead of the line of
storms.

We will see improving conditions areawide by mid to late evening
with only a small chance for a few lingering showers across the
northeast. Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of
storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward
daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across
the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest
of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower
40s.

Enough moisture is expected to rotate back into portions of the
northern and eastern counties very early Friday morning that may
produce some light drizzle mixed with flurries. No accumulations
are expected given how warm we have been recently. This risk will
taper off by late morning as temperatures struggle to climb,
reaching around 40 northwest and in to the mid 40s across the
central and southeast counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

Looks like next system arrives and exits a bit later than
previously advertised. Otherwise, no big changes to the previous
long term portion of the forecast.

/61/

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

Friday through Wednesday.

Any lingering showers due to wrap around moisture should lift out of
our area by late Friday morning. Temperatures will be dropping
through the day on Friday with Friday night/Saturday morning low
temperatures expected to be in the 20s area-wide. Dry and colder
weather will continue through the weekend with increasing rain
chances through the early part of next week as a trough lifts
through the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. The path of this
system is pretty far north and most of the dynamics remain displaced
well to the north, so not expecting any potential for strong storms
with it. Thunderstorms probabilities remain minimal due to the
limited instability, so we'll continue to leave any mention of
thunderstorms out of the forecast Monday through Wednesday as the
frontal boundary moves into our area, stalls, then potentially lifts
back northward. Given the uncertainty in timing of the front and
where/if it stalls, the rain chances remain fairly broad through
early next week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A line of rain with thunderstorms, some severe, will continue
moving east across the area. TCL will be impacted by nearby TS
through 19z followed by an end to the thunderstorm activity.
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB will continue to be impacted through 20z followed
by decreased thunderstorm activity. MGM and TOI will be impacted
over the early afternoon hours. Low clouds will persist across the
area though rain and storms will push to the east. More moisture
may return overnight into early Friday morning near BHM/ASN/ANB.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of strong to severe showers and storms will move through
the area today, with breezy winds outside of any thunderstorms as
well. Colder and drier air moves in for Friday with afternoon RH
values in the 45 to 55 percent range and northwesterly 20ft winds
around 10 to 12 mph. Afternoon RH values will be in the 30 to 40
percent range over the weekend with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     35  42  26  47 /  20  20   0   0
Anniston    37  43  28  47 /  20  20   0   0
Birmingham  36  42  29  47 /  20  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  37  44  29  50 /  20  10   0   0
Calera      37  43  30  48 /  20  10   0   0
Auburn      39  44  30  47 /  40  10   0   0
Montgomery  40  46  30  51 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        40  46  30  50 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-131200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
257 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday generally from 9 am
through 7 pm as a cold front moves through the area. The main
concern will be damaging winds, though a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, along with isolated hail up to 1 inch.

Strong gusty winds are expected for much of the day across Central
Alabama well in advance of any thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     TORNADO          3 SW NIXBURG            32.80N 86.14W
01/12/2023                   COOSA              AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG CR 14 NEAR
            EQUALITY.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ALZ044>049-122200-
Pike AL-Lee AL-Montgomery AL-Macon AL-Bullock AL-Russell AL-
314 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Pike,
Lee, Bullock, Macon, southeastern Montgomery and western Russell
Counties through 400 PM CST...

At 313 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Beulah to near Franklin Field to Kent.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Phenix City, Opelika, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Notasulga,
Hurtsboro, Midway, Smiths, Meadville, Smiths Station, Franklin,
Beulah, Dublin, Lake Tuskegee, Beans Crossroads, Guerryton, Shopton,
Tuskegee National Forest and Beauregard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for south central
Alabama. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 600 PM CST for
southeastern and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 8526 3215 8541 3214 8543 3207 8543
      3195 8576 3200 8630 3202 8630 3240 8587
      3273 8531 3273 8529 3275 8528 3275 8514
      3273 8512 3269 8512 3266 8509 3265 8511
      3263 8508 3262 8509 3258 8507 3248 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 278DEG 26KT 3272 8510 3221 8580 3196 8618

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

32/Davis

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