Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1244 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms with some severe thunderstorms
with damaging wind, large hail and tornado potential continues to
move east across Central Alabama. Improving conditions will
continue across our northwest counties and will expand further
east through the afternoon hours. There will be potential for a
few showers and storms ahead of the cold front as it advances
east, but much of the instability has been consumed. Ahead of
this activity, a weakly capped environment will continue to allow
instability to build with severe weather potential increasing
across our southern and eastern counties ahead of the line of
storms.

We will see improving conditions areawide by mid to late evening
with only a small chance for a few lingering showers across the
northeast. Temperatures will fall after sunset behind the line of
storms with readings falling to near freezing far northwest toward
daybreak on Friday morning with readings in the mid 30s across
the northwest third of the area and in the upper 30s for the rest
of the area except the far southeast with readings in the lower
40s.

Enough moisture is expected to rotate back into portions of the
northern and eastern counties very early Friday morning that may
produce some light drizzle mixed with flurries. No accumulations
are expected given how warm we have been recently. This risk will
taper off by late morning as temperatures struggle to climb,
reaching around 40 northwest and in to the mid 40s across the
central and southeast counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

Friday through Wednesday.

Any lingering showers due to wrap around moisture should lift out of
our area by late Friday morning. Temperatures will be dropping
through the day on Friday with Friday night/Saturday morning low
temperatures expected to be in the 20s area-wide. Dry and colder
weather will continue through the weekend with increasing rain
chances through the early part of next week as a trough lifts
through the Plains and into the Great Lakes region. The path of this
system is pretty far north and most of the dynamics remain displaced
well to the north, so not expecting any potential for strong storms
with it. Thunderstorms probabilities remain minimal due to the
limited instability, so we'll continue to leave any mention of
thunderstorms out of the forecast Monday through Wednesday as the
frontal boundary moves into our area, stalls, then potentially lifts
back northward. Given the uncertainty in timing of the front and
where/if it stalls, the rain chances remain fairly broad through
early next week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM CST THU JAN 12 2023

A line of rain with thunderstorms, some severe, will continue
moving east across the area. TCL will be impacted by nearby TS
through 19z followed by an end to the thunderstorm activity.
BHM/EET/ASN/ANB will continue to be impacted through 20z followed
by decreased thunderstorm activity. MGM and TOI will be impacted
over the early afternoon hours. Low clouds will persist across the
area though rain and storms will push to the east. More moisture
may return overnight into early Friday morning near BHM/ASN/ANB.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of strong to severe showers and storms will move through
the area today, with breezy winds outside of any thunderstorms as
well. Colder and drier air moves in for Friday with afternoon RH
values in the 45 to 55 percent range and northwesterly 20ft winds
around 10 to 12 mph. Afternoon RH values will be in the 30 to 40
percent range over the weekend with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     35  42  25  47 /  20  20   0   0
Anniston    37  43  27  47 /  20  20   0   0
Birmingham  36  42  28  48 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  37  44  27  50 /  10  10   0   0
Calera      37  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      39  44  28  49 /  40  10   0   0
Montgomery  40  46  28  51 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        40  46  28  51 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ALZ011>015-017>050-131200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
257 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Thursday generally from 9 am
through 7 pm as a cold front moves through the area. The main
concern will be damaging winds, though a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, along with isolated hail up to 1 inch.

Strong gusty winds are expected for much of the day across Central
Alabama well in advance of any thunderstorm activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1221 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ROSA                33.96N 86.51W
01/12/2023                   BLOUNT             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ALONG SEVEN BARK ROAD. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

1101 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE REECE CITY        34.06N 86.03W
01/12/2023                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN NEAR NOCCALULA ROAD AT TUCHAHOE
            HEIGHTS.

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KEENER                  34.16N 85.95W
01/12/2023                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT HIGHWAY 11 AND KEENER GAP ROAD.

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW LEESBURG          34.21N 85.79W
01/12/2023                   CHEROKEE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN INTO POWER LINES ON VALLEY STREET.
            RADAR ESTIMATED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

1125 AM     HAIL             4 NE BALLANTRAE         33.29N 86.69W
01/12/2023  E1.75 INCH       SHELBY             AL   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF GOLF BALL-SIZED HAIL IN
            THE CHELSEA AREA.

1135 AM     HAIL             2 ENE CHELSEA           33.35N 86.61W
01/12/2023  U0.50 INCH       SHELBY             AL   PUBLIC

            HALF-INCH HAIL REPORTED.

1145 AM     FLOOD            2 W GADSDEN MALL        34.00N 86.05W
01/12/2023                   ETOWAH             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER COVERING ROADWAY ALONG S 11TH STREET
            NEAR BANKS PARK.

1147 AM     TORNADO          1 NE TALLADEGA NATIONAL 32.89N 86.98W
01/12/2023                   BIBB               AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT VIA MEDIA OF TORNADO CROSSING US 82
            SOUTHEAST OF CENTREVILLE. TDS OBSERVED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1249 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     TORNADO          2 E ELLARDS             32.81N 87.23W
01/12/2023                   PERRY              AL   UNKNOWN

            TDS OBSERVED VIA NWS RADAR TRACKING INTO
            BIBB COUNTY.

1159 AM     TORNADO          3 W ORRVILLE            32.31N 87.30W
01/12/2023                   DALLAS             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORT OF TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 22 WEST
            OF OROVILLE.

1218 PM     TORNADO          1 NNW MEMORIAL STADIUM  32.41N 87.05W
01/12/2023                   DALLAS             AL   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TORNADO IN SELMA WITH
            TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

1219 PM     TORNADO          MEMORIAL STADIUM        32.41N 87.04W
01/12/2023                   DALLAS             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HEAVY DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE SELMA COUNTRY
            CLUB.

1222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ANNISTON            33.66N 85.82W
01/12/2023                   CALHOUN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ON STRUCTURE ALONG ISABELL AVENUE.

1241 PM     HAIL             3 NE MIGNON             33.21N 86.23W
01/12/2023  E1.25 INCH       TALLADEGA          AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON
            THE NORTH SIDE OF SYLACAUGA.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1257 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     TORNADO          2 SE VIDA JUNCTION      32.55N 86.66W
01/12/2023                   AUTAUGA            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG US
            82.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
104 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TORNADO          4 ENE VIDA JUNCTION     32.59N 86.61W
01/12/2023                   AUTAUGA            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY DAMAGE ALONG NUMEROUS ROADWAYS IN THE
            JOFFRE AND OLD KINGSTON COMMUNITIES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
105 PM CST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TORNADO          4 ENE VIDA JUNCTION     32.59N 86.61W
01/12/2023                   AUTAUGA            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY DAMAGE ALONG NUMEROUS ROADWAYS IN THE
            JOFFRE AND OLD KINGSTON COMMUNITIES.
            CORRECTS SOURCE OF REPORT.

&&