Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1233 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The main concern in the short term is with storm development later
this afternoon and evening. There will be a two areas of focus
for thunderstorm development.

The frontal boundary across central Nebraska will be one area of
focus for more surface based storm development. The main hazards
will be hail, damaging winds and even a tornado potential. There
will be a narrow corridor of modest low level CAPE values around
2000 to 3000 J/kg. This will generally be from Mills, NE
southwestward to Dickens and east. A weak cap in the area is
expected to erode this afternoon with daytime heating. Once this
occurs can expect a few scattered thunderstorms to develop near
the front. The mode of storm development will be supercellular and
most likely discrete and possibly long tracked supercells. There
is the potential for tornadic development across portions of far
north central Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska, where the low
level Helicity is the greatest.

The second area of focus will be across western Nebraska as the
cold front advances eastward. For this sector the main threats
will be damaging winds and hail. Ongoing convection across
Colorado and Wyoming will move eastward and are expected to
strengthen. There is also the possibility of additional
convection development in western and southwest Nebraska as well
out ahead of the front. Storm wills intensify as the get into the
better environment. CAPE will be marginal across western Nebraska
around 600 to 1000 J/kg and around 1000 to 1600 J/kg generally
east of HWY 83. There is some concern however that moisture is a
little limited for areas across far western and southwest Nebraska
as sfc dewpoints are only in the low to mid 40s, moisture increases
to the east.

Most of the severe thunderstorm activity should diminish by
midnight. However, lingering showers and thunderstorms will still
be possible through the overnight. There is a concern for some
moderate to heavy rainfall across the northwest Sandhills and even
a marginal potential across north central Nebraska. QPF values
range from around 0.65 to 1.60 inches.

As for Monday, there is the potential for more showers and
thunderstorms, with chances lingering through the day as the cold
front continues to advance east. Most showers and thunderstorms
will remain below the severe threshold, however across north
central Nebraska there is still a slight risk of a strong to
severe storm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The next chance for precipitation will arrive on Wednesday night
as an upper level trof moves through the area. An upper level
ridge develops across the Western CONUS on Thursday, giving the
High Plains a northwest flow through the first half of the
weekend. By Sunday the flow will become more amplified. The cold
front passage will keep temperatures cool through Wednesday,
before temperatures begin to warm up towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Thunderstorms will continue across the region into early Monday
morning. Some storms may be severe with large hail and strong winds
as the primary threats. Visibility reductions should be expected in
heavy rainfall from these storms. Storms move out of the area across
the south by mid-morning, but rain showers will linger across the
north through Monday. Some light fog, visibility restrictions, and
ceilings below 1000 feet are expected at KVTN for most of Monday. In
addition to precipitation chances, strong winds are expected through
Monday with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots expected across the entire
region.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 /228 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe weather is likely late this afternoon and tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Damaging wind gusts in excess
of 70 mph and very large hail greater than 2 inches are possible,
and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm activity will begin late
in the afternoon or early evening across western Nebraska and
spread east and northeast throughout the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may continue into Monday
morning in north central Nebraska. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible in the afternoon across much of the forecast
area. Large hail and strong winds are the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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