Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Thunderstorm activity will continue today. The surface cold front
will remain draped through north central Nebraska as the surface low
migrates northeast through South Dakota. Storms will redevelop in
the late morning and early afternoon along the front. There is also
plenty of upper level support via an upper level jet. Although the
jet will be stronger to the east, speeds are 100 knots at 250 mb and
60 knots at 500 mb in north central Nebraska by the early afternoon.
Strong thunderstorms are possible with large hail and strong winds
as the main threats. Steep mid level lapse rates remain and MLCAPE
between 1500 and 2500 J/kg will be present along the front. An
isolated tornado might also be possible in far north central
Nebraska, but confidence is lower than yesterday based on dryer
soundings, weaker signatures on hodographs, and low helicity.
Steering winds aloft may push the storms north along the front
quickly, limiting the window of storm potential in north central
Nebraska. By the mid-afternoon, thunderstorms should be to the north
and east of the forecast area as the front moves east with the low.

There is also the potential for heavy rainfall in  the Panhandle and
Sandhills. Energy from upper level low rotates through that area
during the day and sufficient moisture is present at the surface
with dew points in the 50s.  Persistent rainfall is forecasted to
bring between 1.5 and 2 inches of total QPF by Tuesday morning. Some
thunderstorms may be strong at this time and location, but
widespread severe weather is not expected. Recent dry conditions at
the surface should also keep flood potential limited. Winds will be
strong out of the west during the afternoon across the forecast area
as the surface low still maintains influence over regional weather.
The position of the front also results in a steep temperature
gradient, with highs in the 50s in the Panhandle and in the 70s in
central Nebraska.

The weather pattern becomes less active Monday night into Tuesday as
the surface and upper level lows continue north out of Minnesota
into Canada. The upper level jet may still support some rainfall
in the Panhandle, but this should taper off by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

There is another possibility for precipitation on Wednesday as an
upper level disturbance moves east across Nebraska. Severe weather
is not expected at this time and rainfall totals should remain
light. Wednesday is the coolest day in the long term, with highs in
the 50s and 60s, which is between 15 and 20 degrees below normal for
early June. Temperatures increase and conditions dry out on Thursday
and Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the High Plains.
Precipitation chances return Friday night and into early next week
as a zonal pattern develops over Nebraska and a series of
disturbances move across the state. Temperatures remain below normal
through this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Wind and thunder will be the main challenges this TAF period.
Expect VCTS at both KVTN and KLBF throughout the day. Will amend
for predominate as radar trends dictate. Environment favors hail
production so expect any thunderstorms will be capable of hail.

There are indications for a narrow corridor of very strong winds
to push into central Nebraska from the west, but confidence in
timing and location are lacking. Will include some robust gusts
through this afternoon but leave out high end gusts until
confidence increases.

Low level moisture looks a bit limited across southern Nebraska so
expect KLBF will maintain VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms.
Moisture is deeper to the north and KVTN will trend down to MVFR
and may flirt with IFR later this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-310900-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
351 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 /251 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms
generally east of highway 83 today with primary threats of
damaging winds and large hail.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today across
northeastern Nebraska with primary threats of damaging winds,
large hail, and a tornado is also possible.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Full forecast details can be found on our website at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
730 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

NEZ038-059-301300-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-
730 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Lincoln and
southwestern Custer Counties through 800 AM CDT...

At 729 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Maxwell, or 17 miles north of Curtis, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brady, Maxwell, Keith, Jeffrey Canyon State Wildlife Management Area,
Cottonwood Canyon State Wildlife Management Area and Etna.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 186 and
204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4086 10069 4138 10052 4123 9999 4104 10020
      4104 10023 4101 10023 4078 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 206DEG 38KT 4089 10055

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
757 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

NEZ008>010-301330-
Brown NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-
757 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Rock, east
central Brown and northwestern Holt Counties through 830 AM CDT...

At 756 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rose, or 23 miles south of Bassett, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bassett, Newport, Rose, Duff, Pony Lake, Twin Lakes State Wildlife
Management Area and Johnsons Corner.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 152 and 182.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 252 and 272.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4212 9954 4220 9975 4271 9965 4258 9924
      4247 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1256Z 206DEG 49KT 4224 9960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
758 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

NEZ037-038-059-301330-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
758 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Lincoln, eastern Logan and west central Custer Counties through 830
AM CDT...

At 758 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Brady, or 21 miles southeast of Stapleton, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arnold, Gandy, Logan, Shanklin Bluff, Tarboz Lake, Pleasant Hill,
Hoagland, Brown Lake, Milldale and Finchville.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 234 and 269.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4108 10028 4116 10050 4171 10047 4153 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 206DEG 46KT 4120 10035

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
823 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 AM     HAIL             8 SE ARNOLD             41.34N 100.08W
05/30/2022  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

GOMEZ