Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The main concern in the short term is with storm development later
this afternoon and evening. There will be a two areas of focus
for thunderstorm development.

The frontal boundary across central Nebraska will be one area of
focus for more surface based storm development. The main hazards
will be hail, damaging winds and even a tornado potential. There
will be a narrow corridor of modest low level CAPE values around
2000 to 3000 J/kg. This will generally be from Mills, NE
southwestward to Dickens and east. A weak cap in the area is
expected to erode this afternoon with daytime heating. Once this
occurs can expect a few scattered thunderstorms to develop near
the front. The mode of storm development will be supercellular and
most likely discrete and possibly long tracked supercells. There
is the potential for tornadic development across portions of far
north central Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska, where the low
level Helicity is the greatest.

The second area of focus will be across western Nebraska as the
cold front advances eastward. For this sector the main threats
will be damaging winds and hail. Ongoing convection across
Colorado and Wyoming will move eastward and are expected to
strengthen. There is also the possibility of additional
convection development in western and southwest Nebraska as well
out ahead of the front. Storm wills intensify as the get into the
better environment. CAPE will be marginal across western Nebraska
around 600 to 1000 J/kg and around 1000 to 1600 J/kg generally
east of HWY 83. There is some concern however that moisture is a
little limited for areas across far western and southwest Nebraska
as sfc dewpoints are only in the low to mid 40s, moisture increases
to the east.

Most of the severe thunderstorm activity should diminish by
midnight. However, lingering showers and thunderstorms will still
be possible through the overnight. There is a concern for some
moderate to heavy rainfall across the northwest Sandhills and even
a marginal potential across north central Nebraska. QPF values
range from around 0.65 to 1.60 inches.

As for Monday, there is the potential for more showers and
thunderstorms, with chances lingering through the day as the cold
front continues to advance east. Most showers and thunderstorms
will remain below the severe threshold, however across north
central Nebraska there is still a slight risk of a strong to
severe storm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The next chance for precipitation will arrive on Wednesday night
as an upper level trof moves through the area. An upper level
ridge develops across the Western CONUS on Thursday, giving the
High Plains a northwest flow through the first half of the
weekend. By Sunday the flow will become more amplified. The cold
front passage will keep temperatures cool through Wednesday,
before temperatures begin to warm up towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Thunderstorms will continue across the region through this evening
and into early Monday morning. Some storms may be severe with large
hail and strong winds as the primary threats. Visibility reductions
should be expected in heavy rainfall from these storms. Storms move
out of the area across the south by sunrise, but rain showers will
linger across the north through Monday. Some light fog, visibility
restrictions, and ceilings below 1000 feet are expected at KVTN for
most of Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 /228 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe weather is likely late this afternoon and tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Damaging wind gusts in excess
of 70 mph and very large hail greater than 2 inches are possible,
and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm activity will begin late
in the afternoon or early evening across western Nebraska and
spread east and northeast throughout the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may continue into Monday
morning in north central Nebraska. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible in the afternoon across much of the forecast
area. Large hail and strong winds are the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
910 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             17 N TAYLOR             42.02N 99.38W
05/29/2022  E2.00 INCH       LOUP               NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
918 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             12 N TAYLOR             41.94N 99.38W
05/29/2022  M4.00 INCH       LOUP               NE   STORM CHASER

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
920 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             THEDFORD                41.98N 100.57W
05/29/2022  M1.00 INCH       THOMAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RACHEL.KULIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
925 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             15 NNW BURWELL          41.98N 99.25W
05/29/2022  M4.25 INCH       LOUP               NE   STORM CHASER

            MEASURED UP TO 5 IN.

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
928 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             7 N NORTH PLATTE        41.23N 100.77W
05/29/2022  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
933 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ036>038-059-300315-
Custer NE-McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
933 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Lincoln, southern Logan, southeastern McPherson and western Custer
Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Stapleton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stapleton, Gandy, Logan, Shanklin Bluff, Tarboz Lake and Hoagland.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 224 and 245.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 94 and 116.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for central
Nebraska.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 10063 4139 10073 4168 10031 4136 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 214DEG 34KT 4131 10063

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JWS