Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The main concern in the short term is with storm development later
this afternoon and evening. There will be a two areas of focus
for thunderstorm development.

The frontal boundary across central Nebraska will be one area of
focus for more surface based storm development. The main hazards
will be hail, damaging winds and even a tornado potential. There
will be a narrow corridor of modest low level CAPE values around
2000 to 3000 J/kg. This will generally be from Mills, NE
southwestward to Dickens and east. A weak cap in the area is
expected to erode this afternoon with daytime heating. Once this
occurs can expect a few scattered thunderstorms to develop near
the front. The mode of storm development will be supercellular and
most likely discrete and possibly long tracked supercells. There
is the potential for tornadic development across portions of far
north central Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska, where the low
level Helicity is the greatest.

The second area of focus will be across western Nebraska as the
cold front advances eastward. For this sector the main threats
will be damaging winds and hail. Ongoing convection across
Colorado and Wyoming will move eastward and are expected to
strengthen. There is also the possibility of additional
convection development in western and southwest Nebraska as well
out ahead of the front. Storm wills intensify as the get into the
better environment. CAPE will be marginal across western Nebraska
around 600 to 1000 J/kg and around 1000 to 1600 J/kg generally
east of HWY 83. There is some concern however that moisture is a
little limited for areas across far western and southwest Nebraska
as sfc dewpoints are only in the low to mid 40s, moisture increases
to the east.

Most of the severe thunderstorm activity should diminish by
midnight. However, lingering showers and thunderstorms will still
be possible through the overnight. There is a concern for some
moderate to heavy rainfall across the northwest Sandhills and even
a marginal potential across north central Nebraska. QPF values
range from around 0.65 to 1.60 inches.

As for Monday, there is the potential for more showers and
thunderstorms, with chances lingering through the day as the cold
front continues to advance east. Most showers and thunderstorms
will remain below the severe threshold, however across north
central Nebraska there is still a slight risk of a strong to
severe storm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

The next chance for precipitation will arrive on Wednesday night
as an upper level trof moves through the area. An upper level
ridge develops across the Western CONUS on Thursday, giving the
High Plains a northwest flow through the first half of the
weekend. By Sunday the flow will become more amplified. The cold
front passage will keep temperatures cool through Wednesday,
before temperatures begin to warm up towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Thunderstorms will continue across the region through this evening
and into early Monday morning. Some storms may be severe with large
hail and strong winds as the primary threats. Visibility reductions
should be expected in heavy rainfall from these storms. Storms move
out of the area across the south by sunrise, but rain showers will
linger across the north through Monday. Some light fog, visibility
restrictions, and ceilings below 1000 feet are expected at KVTN for
most of Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-302030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
328 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 /228 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Severe weather is likely late this afternoon and tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Damaging wind gusts in excess
of 70 mph and very large hail greater than 2 inches are possible,
and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm activity will begin late
in the afternoon or early evening across western Nebraska and
spread east and northeast throughout the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may continue into Monday
morning in north central Nebraska. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible in the afternoon across much of the forecast
area. Large hail and strong winds are the primary threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             16 NNE TAYLOR           41.99N 99.30W
05/29/2022  M4.25 INCH       LOUP               NE   STORM CHASER

            MEASURED UP TO 5 IN. PICTURES PROVIDED ON SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1015 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ005-094-300400-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
1015 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Cherry
County through 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM MDT/...

At 1015 PM CDT/915 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles north of Valentine
National Wildlife Refuge to 8 miles west of Valentine to 6 miles
north of Merritt Reservoir. Movement was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Valentine, Crookston, Highway 97 crossing the Niobrara River,
Anderson Bridge State Wildlife Management Area and Schlagel Creek
State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 177 and 201.
 Highway 97 near mile marker 125, and between mile markers 127 and
141.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 213 and 222.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 1 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4271 10060 4275 10075 4270 10094 4300 10093
      4299 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 193DEG 20KT 4273 10060 4285 10072 4274 10091

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sporer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HAIL             4 W ARNOLD              41.42N 100.27W
05/29/2022  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1038 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

NEZ005-006-008-300400-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Keya Paha NE-
1038 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Cherry,
northwestern Brown and northwestern Keya Paha Counties through 1100
PM CDT...

At 1038 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Ainsworth to 7 miles
southwest of Norden to 14 miles southeast of Valentine. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norden, Sparks and Smith Falls State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 127 and 225.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 201 and 211.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 201 and 207.
 Highway 12 between mile markers 11 and 39, and near mile marker 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for north central
Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4287 9972 4271 10049 4274 10059 4300 10036
      4300 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 219DEG 29KT 4264 9991 4277 10014 4274 10034

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sporer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1100 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             3 W ALMERIA             41.83N 99.60W
05/29/2022  M1.75 INCH       LOUP               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MELTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1114 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             20 N TAYLOR             42.06N 99.38W
05/29/2022  M1.00 INCH       LOUP               NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY