Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Southwest flow persists across the region with a blocking pattern
keeping the longwave trough across the Intermountain West into the
Plains. A passing perturbation in the flow has lead to the
development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms in south-central
Kansas progressing ENE into the CWA. Expecting these storms to
continue to mature and grow upscale into clusters of storms as
forecast soundings and hodographs depict weak bulk shear around 25-
30 kts. Recent CAM guidance depicts another cluster of strong to
severe storms working into north central Kansas later this evening.
The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail with storms
this afternoon and evening. Low-level shear is less supportive for
tornadoes, although there are a few lingering boundaries from
earlier convection that could locally enhance SRH and allow for a
few tornadoes to spin up. Heavy rainfall is also a concern as PWATs
remain near record values at around 2 inches, so these storms will
be efficient rainfall producers with 2-3 inch per hour rainfall
rates possible. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon
and Morris counties as the axis of heaviest precipitation is
expected southeast of a line from Council Grove to Topeka.
Maintained the Flash Flood Watch for areas north of this line as FFG
is low thanks to last night's torrential rain.

The heaviest of the precipitation is progged to move out of the
forecast area early Saturday morning. The surface boundary shifts
southeast through the day with another wave of energy sparking
additional storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The environment
looks less favorable for severe storms overall, although there could
still be a few severe storms with the best chances in east central
Kansas. The pattern does not change much through the rest of the
forecast period with the longwave trough lingering across the
Plains. Perturbations ejecting around the base of the trough will
lead to continued on-and-off precipitation chances into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Timing and coverage of storms continues to be the main challenge
this period. Expecting storms to develop mainly across east
central KS and expand in coverage this afternoon with impacts
most likely at KTOP/KFOE. Better chances for TSRA at KMHK comes
later this evening before rain exits around 09z Saturday. Hail and
strong winds are possible with storms this afternoon and evening.
Guidance suggests MVFR cigs build in Saturday morning; something
to monitor in future issuances.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ010>012-023-
024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
315 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe weather is possible this afternoon into the overnight hours
for the entire area. Large hail, damaging wind, and flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. An
isolated tornado could also occur.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning.
Please reference this product for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms could develop on Saturday as a front moves through
the area. Isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts will be
possible, especially in east-central portions of Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today or tonight. Spotters are encouraged
to report rainfall amounts over one inch to the National Weather
Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PLEASANT GROVE      38.90N 95.28W
06/25/2021                   DOUGLAS            KS   PUBLIC

            3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. RADAR ESTIMATED
            TIME.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
359 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW TECUMSEH          39.07N 95.63W
06/25/2021  E60 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
409 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ054-055-058-252145-
Coffey-Lyon-Osage-
409 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY AND CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of Emporia, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Lebo, Americus, Olpe, Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Reading and
Melvern Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 152.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 116 and 138.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3851 9635 3860 9581 3827 9575 3824 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 247DEG 40KT 3839 9609

Flanagan/Gargan

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