Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Southwest flow persists across the region with a blocking pattern
keeping the longwave trough across the Intermountain West into the
Plains. A passing perturbation in the flow has lead to the
development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms in south-central
Kansas progressing ENE into the CWA. Expecting these storms to
continue to mature and grow upscale into clusters of storms as
forecast soundings and hodographs depict weak bulk shear around 25-
30 kts. Recent CAM guidance depicts another cluster of strong to
severe storms working into north central Kansas later this evening.
The main hazards will be damaging winds and large hail with storms
this afternoon and evening. Low-level shear is less supportive for
tornadoes, although there are a few lingering boundaries from
earlier convection that could locally enhance SRH and allow for a
few tornadoes to spin up. Heavy rainfall is also a concern as PWATs
remain near record values at around 2 inches, so these storms will
be efficient rainfall producers with 2-3 inch per hour rainfall
rates possible. Have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include Lyon
and Morris counties as the axis of heaviest precipitation is
expected southeast of a line from Council Grove to Topeka.
Maintained the Flash Flood Watch for areas north of this line as FFG
is low thanks to last night's torrential rain.

The heaviest of the precipitation is progged to move out of the
forecast area early Saturday morning. The surface boundary shifts
southeast through the day with another wave of energy sparking
additional storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The environment
looks less favorable for severe storms overall, although there could
still be a few severe storms with the best chances in east central
Kansas. The pattern does not change much through the rest of the
forecast period with the longwave trough lingering across the
Plains. Perturbations ejecting around the base of the trough will
lead to continued on-and-off precipitation chances into the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Timing and coverage of storms continues to be the main challenge
this period. Expecting storms to develop mainly across east
central KS and expand in coverage this afternoon with impacts
most likely at KTOP/KFOE. Better chances for TSRA at KMHK comes
later this evening before rain exits around 09z Saturday. Hail and
strong winds are possible with storms this afternoon and evening.
Guidance suggests MVFR cigs build in Saturday morning; something
to monitor in future issuances.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ010>012-023-
024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
313 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260815-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
313 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe weather will be possible again today across the outlook
area. Following a round of morning rain, thunderstorms could
redevelop this afternoon. Large hail, damaging wind and flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. An
isolated tornado could also occur.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning.
Please reference this product for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms could develop on Saturday as a front moves through
the area. Isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts will be
possible, especially in east-central portions of Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
944 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SCRANTON                38.78N 95.74W
06/25/2021                   OSAGE              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN, THE BIGGEST AROUND
            2-3 FEET IN DIAMETER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE OZAWKIE           39.18N 95.42W
06/25/2021  E2.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW SABETHA           39.92N 95.81W
06/25/2021  E6.30 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ037-054-252000-
Lyon-Morris-
227 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS AND WEST
CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Strong City, moving east-northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dunlap.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3852 9672 3854 9673 3862 9634
      3842 9626 3841 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 249DEG 17KT 3847 9647

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ054-055-058-252045-
Coffey-Lyon-Osage-
311 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY AND EAST CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lebo, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Osage City, Lyndon, Lebo, Burlingame, Hartford, Neosho Rapids,
Reading, Olivet, Melvern Lake and Pomona Lake.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 132 and 153.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3842 9617 3880 9585 3865 9551 3862 9551
      3829 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 223DEG 24KT 3846 9590

Gargan