Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Main focus is the concern for severe weather potential late this
afternoon and evening, with several factors leading to plenty of
uncertainty in how tonight evolves, which will then affect the next
couple of days.

A 1004mb surface low is centered over south central KS with a warm
front extending into northeast KS while the cold front extends into
western KS and into southeast NE. We also have outflow boundaries
from this morning's convection, which had pushed south of the area
but is retreating north, and another boundary was noted on satellite
in southeast NE earlier today, likely associated with convection
that had decayed to the north of that area. Having multiple
boundaries hanging around the area leaves room for uncertainty on
which one storms will initiate on, and also is a cause for concern
because enough clearing has taken place for the atmosphere to become
quite unstable. The 19Z TOP sounding shows the boundary layer as
being warm and moist, but the atmosphere still capped. Most
deterministic and ensemble guidance has favored storms developing
first near the KS/NE border around 22-23Z where the synoptic
boundary looks to be situated, then moving southeast. There remains
some possibility storms could initiate a bit further south, but
there isn't much confidence in that scenario - in any case, areas
north of I-70 are favored at least for the beginning of the event.
Any storms that develop in this area during the late afternoon/early
evening would have potential to produce a tornado or two, given
backed winds at the surface resulting in a veered wind profile as
shown in forecast hodographs. This would be especially true for a
storm that develops along any boundaries in the area, with CAPE of
3000-5000 J/kg to work with. That being said, large hail and
damaging winds are still the bigger threats, with hail being up to
baseball size and wind gusts up to 70mph possible.

We will also need to monitor heavy rain with potential for flash
flooding late tonight, mainly after midnight. Storms are also
expected to develop in western KS associated with the cold front or
dryline, and any discrete cells initially should grow upscale as
boundaries interact with each other. There is a possibility storms
could be progressive enough tonight to not cause problems,
especially since we have been dry enough for most areas to take a
quick inch or two. However, Pwat values are already near the max
based on local sounding climatology and are expected to remain there
overnight into Friday. As a result, have issued a Flash Flood Watch
for parts of northeast and east central KS that would be at greatest
risk for receiving heavy rainfall tonight. This may need to be
expanded south and/or west to account for Friday's activity, but
given the uncertainty with how tonight evolves and what kind of soil
conditions will be present by morning, so have focused more on
tonight for the watch area for now.

Most activity should move out by sunrise, with a brief break in the
morning for most places. Another round of severe weather then
becomes possible during the afternoon and evening with the cold
front bisecting the area. Damaging wind, hail, and heavy rain will
be the main threats for this round, and the exact area will depend
on where exactly the boundary sets up. Some storms may continue into
Saturday as well, and there is still some variability between models
on how soon the front moves entirely out of the area. Although PoPs
are small heading into next week, troughing remains over the area to
at least keep some storm chances around. Otherwise, expect cooler
temperatures relative to what we've seen the last couple days, with
highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue across the area
throughout the period. The initial round of overnight storms seems
more likely to impact KMHK, while tomorrow afternoon's round of
storms seems more likely to impact KFOE/KTOP. Conditions should
remain VFR away from any thunderstorms. South winds and LLWS
continue tonight across KFOE and KTOP ahead of a cold front, with
winds remaining northerly at KMHK behind the front. LLWS will end
before sunrise as the strongest LLJ shifts to the east, with
surface winds not changing much throughout the day as the front
stalls.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ010>012-023-
024-026-038>040-055-056.

&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
403 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252115-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
403 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will continue this
afternoon, especially along and south of I-70.

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected late this
afternoon into tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, heavy
rainfall, and a few tornadoes are all possible. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for parts of northeast and east central
Kansas tonight through Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

More severe thunderstorms could develop Friday afternoon across
the area. Large hail, damaging wind, and heavy rainfall are the
main threats with this round. The Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect through Saturday morning. Please reference this product for
more information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ012-250630-
Brown-
1256 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

At 1255 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Robinson, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha and Robinson.

LAT...LON 3981 9534 3983 9556 4000 9556 4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 273DEG 28KT 3992 9541

Gargan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
101 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ034-035-250630-
Dickinson-Ottawa-
101 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND
SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Beverly to 3 miles southwest of Niles.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Bennington, Tescott, Culver, Wells, Manchester, Niles,
Talmage and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9793 3914 9737 3913 9737 3913 9696
      3895 9733 3895 9737 3896 9737 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 250DEG 26KT 3900 9800 3895 9753

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
130 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ034-035-250700-
Dickinson-Ottawa-
130 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND
SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 129 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Talmage to 5 miles south of Culver.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Chapman, Solomon, Enterprise, Bennington, Culver, Wells,
Manchester, Niles, Moonlight and Talmage.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 286.

LAT...LON 3897 9792 3914 9762 3913 9697 3887 9706
      3888 9737 3896 9737 3896 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 262DEG 28KT 3904 9723 3890 9779

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ034-035-250745-
Dickinson-Ottawa-
159 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKINSON AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 159 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southwest of Manchester to 3 miles
north of Lindsborg. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Herington, Chapman, Solomon, Enterprise, Hope, Woodbine,
Manchester, Carlton, Niles, Moonlight and Talmage.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 289.

LAT...LON 3910 9749 3909 9696 3897 9696 3898 9695
      3877 9693 3861 9693 3861 9737 3891 9737
      3892 9738 3893 9738 3893 9737 3896 9737
      3896 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 259DEG 42KT 3905 9741 3862 9766

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
223 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ021-022-036-250745-
Geary-Clay-Riley-
223 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GEARY...SOUTHERN RILEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 223 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southwest of Wakefield to near Ogden.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Junction City, Ogden, Grandview Plaza, Wakefield, Milford,
Milford Lake and Keats.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 290 and 317.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 9683 3920 9652 3920 9656 3918 9656
      3918 9655 3919 9652 3917 9652 3917 9649
      3918 9648 3917 9648 3917 9647 3919 9646
      3917 9639 3909 9639 3896 9693 3898 9693
      3898 9695 3897 9696 3913 9696 3914 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 261DEG 29KT 3916 9705 3910 9674

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
239 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ022-023-038-250830-
Wabaunsee-Pottawatomie-Riley-
239 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY...NORTHERN
WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 239 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles east of Milford to near Volland.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, Alma, Westmoreland, St. Marys, St. George, Maple
Hill, McFarland, Paxico, Belvue, Louisville, Keats and Volland.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 316 and 345.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 9603 3913 9604 3912 9602 3913 9599
      3911 9599 3910 9595 3898 9595 3890 9641
      3895 9650 3907 9650 3907 9655 3928 9678
      3943 9637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0739Z 251DEG 28KT 3920 9682 3896 9641