Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550

December 5, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Dec 5, 2021, 8:54 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 5, 2021, 8:54 PM CST (02:54 UTC)
Expired
Dec 6, 2021, 4:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 73 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Dyer County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Obion County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 5, 8:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFStone, Taney18 min
Dec 5, 9:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark57 min
Dec 5, 9:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner52 min
Dec 5, 9:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFStone, Taney55 min
Dec 5, 10:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton45 min
Dec 6, 1:04 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Pope41 min
Dec 6, 3:44 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, Henry, Weakley31 min
Dec 6, 3:54 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXHouston, Montgomery, Stewart51 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-12-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 125 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-12-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 286 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
125 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-146 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1105 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
462 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

234 
WWUS20 KWNS 060252
SEL0  
SPC WW 060252
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TNZ000-061000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
855 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern and central Arkansas
  Southern Missouri
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northwest Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 855 PM
  until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify along and
ahead of a cold front tonight, with a severe storm risk expected to
continue through much of the overnight.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
of Fort Smith AR to 50 miles northeast of Dyersburg TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 5, 8:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Crawford and 17 more114 min
Dec 5, 11:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Crawford, Franklin, Fulton, Izard and 9 more118 min
Dec 6, 3:01 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Garland, Jackson and 13 more59 min
Dec 6, 5:06 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Jefferson, Lee, Monroe, Phillips114 min
Dec 5, 8:59 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Johnson and 7 more7 hr
Dec 5, 11:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 14 more2 hr
Dec 6, 2:47 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Fulton and 10 more88 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.