Mesoscale Discussion 1961

Issued

Dec 5, 2021, 8:06 PM CST (02:06 UTC)

Expired

Dec 5, 2021, 10:00 PM CST

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

95%

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550Dec 5, 8:55 PM CST
• Tornado Watch 551Dec 5, 9:00 PM CST

564 
ACUS11 KWNS 060207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060206 
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northern Arkansas...Southern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 060206Z - 060400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop from eastern Oklahoma
east-northeastward across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
over the next hour. Weather watch will be needed across the region.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
northern Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The
front is moving southeastward and low-level convergence has
increased over the last according to objective analysis. In
response, convective towers have developed along the front and cells
are beginning to initiate. The airmass ahead of the front is moist
with surface dewpoints near 60 F and MLCAPE is estimated to be in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWPs at
Tulsa and Fort Smith have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 kt range with
speed shear in the boundary layer and curved hodographs. This should
be favorable for supercells with storms that can remain discrete
amid a rapid expansion in convective coverage. The low-level shear
may also support a tornado threat. Eventually, a nearly continuous
line of storms is expected to organize along the front. Wind damage,
hail and an isolated tornado threat should accompany the more
intense parts of the line. The threat should develop eastward and
southeastward with time as the cold front advances.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 12/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...
OUN...

LAT...LON   35179397 34899491 34919563 35019597 35299635 35699641
            36139620 36599567 37039503 37529349 37809168 37968915
            37908847 37568800 36968792 36598804 36168870 36048967
            35549278 35179397

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.