Mesoscale Discussion 1966

Issued

Dec 6, 2021, 5:06 AM CST (11:06 UTC)

Expired

Dec 6, 2021, 7:00 AM CST

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

324 
ACUS11 KWNS 061106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061106 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-061300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1966
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 AM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Areas affected...south-central Kentucky...parts of middle and
western Tennessee...east-central Arkansas...northern
Mississippi...and northwestern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061106Z - 061300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts, and/or a brief/weak tornado or
two, remain possible this morning with near-frontal convective
bands.  Limited/sparse nature of the risk continues to suggest that
new WW issuance will not be required.

DISCUSSION...Some increase/sharpening of the frontal convective band
has occurred over the past hour, from southwestern Kentucky to
western Tennessee.  This is occurring as convection approaches the
axis of greatest instability (around 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE).  

In tandem with the sharpening of the convective band, a few weak
QLCS-type small-scale circulations have been observed, particularly
near the Tennessee/Kentucky border area.  These circulations are
being aided by low-level flow that veers weakly and increases
substantially within the lowest 1km.  With that said, a weakly
stable boundary layer, and limited CAPE, suggest that severe
potential will remain muted the remainder of the morning.  As such,
WW issuance is unlikely to be required.

..Goss/Edwards.. 12/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   37598469 37028457 35788561 34728738 34208845 33939023
            34159224 34699158 35438904 36258761 36458702 37098656
            37598469

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.