Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1962

December 5, 202115 counties in Arkansas; Howell County, Ozark County, Missouri; Sequoyah County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 5, 2021, 11:17 PM CST for 15 counties in Arkansas; Howell County, Ozark County, Missouri; Sequoyah County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 5, 2021, 11:17 PM CST (05:17 UTC)
Expired
Dec 6, 2021, 1:15 AM CST
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 550

Counties Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Howell County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-12-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 125 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-12-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 286 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
125 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-146 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1105 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
462 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

275 
ACUS11 KWNS 060517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060517 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-060715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Northern AR...Southern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550...

Valid 060517Z - 060715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 550
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will steadily spread southeast across ww550.
Wind and hail remain the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Squall line is in the process of maturing along the
surging cold front over the Ozark Plateau into eastern OK. This band
of convection has gradually solidified as it encounters higher PW
and better instability. With deep-layer flow decidedly veered, it
appears linear storm mode should be the primary concern. However, a
few showers are noted ahead of the squall line across northwest AR
and this activity does bear some watching. Given the lack of
significant low-level convergence ahead of the cold front this
activity may struggle to organize, though wind profiles do favor
supercells. If the frontal bands remains the primary mode then
wind/hail should continue to be the main threats.

..Darrow.. 12/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35379547 36349350 36899180 36329127 35049381 35379547

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 5, 8:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Crawford and 17 more114 min
Dec 5, 8:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 39 more7 hr
Dec 6, 3:01 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCraighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Garland, Jackson and 13 more59 min
Dec 6, 5:06 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Jefferson, Lee, Monroe, Phillips114 min
Dec 5, 8:59 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Iron, Madison and 7 more7 hr
Dec 5, 11:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Madison, Mississippi, New Madrid and 4 more2 hr
Dec 6, 2:47 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMississippi88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.