Alert archive / Ohio / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403

July 29, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 29, 2021, 3:13 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 29, 2021, 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC)
Expired
Jul 29, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 106 counties

Dearborn County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Greene County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Barbour County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Preston County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

45 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 3:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFairfield, Franklin, Pickaway47 min
Jul 29, 3:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZCoshocton, Guernsey, Muskingum44 min
Jul 29, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNDelaware, Franklin, Licking, Madison, Union24 min
Jul 29, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFairfield, Franklin40 min
Jul 29, 3:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNChampaign, Clark, Madison48 min
Jul 29, 4:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZGuernsey, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble48 min
Jul 29, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFairfield, Hocking37 min
Jul 29, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZCarroll, Columbiana, Jefferson45 min
Jul 29, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFayette, Franklin, Madison, Pickaway47 min
Jul 29, 4:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNClark, Fayette, Madison42 min
Jul 29, 4:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZBelmont, Harrison, Jefferson14 min
Jul 29, 4:53 PM EDTTornado WarningPBZBelmont, Harrison, Jefferson22 min
Jul 29, 4:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZMonroe, Noble36 min
Jul 29, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXWashington54 min
Jul 29, 5:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFayette, Pickaway, Ross45 min
Jul 29, 5:02 PM EDTTornado WarningPBZCarroll, Columbiana, Jefferson13 min
Jul 29, 5:14 PM EDTTornado WarningPBZCarroll, Columbiana, Jefferson16 min
Jul 29, 5:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZIndiana30 min
Jul 29, 5:20 PM EDTTornado WarningILNPickaway, Ross25 min
Jul 29, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFayette, Highland, Ross66 min
Jul 29, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZBelmont, Jefferson36 min
Jul 29, 5:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZHarrison, Jefferson47 min
Jul 29, 5:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZBelmont, Monroe, Noble38 min
Jul 29, 5:39 PM EDTTornado WarningPBZJefferson21 min
Jul 29, 5:48 PM EDTTornado WarningPBZGreene, Washington27 min
Jul 29, 5:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNPike, Ross, Scioto62 min
Jul 29, 5:59 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedPBZJefferson31 min
Jul 29, 6:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette, Greene52 min
Jul 29, 6:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZHarrison, Jefferson48 min
Jul 29, 6:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNClinton, Fayette, Greene47 min
Jul 29, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZGreene32 min
Jul 29, 6:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNFayette, Franklin, Ripley40 min
Jul 29, 6:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBedford, Blair, Cambria12 min
Jul 29, 6:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZFayette, Greene28 min
Jul 29, 6:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZBelmont, Harrison, Jefferson24 min
Jul 29, 7:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZGreene, Washington45 min
Jul 29, 8:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNAdams, Scioto41 min
Jul 29, 8:11 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNLewis4 hr
Jul 29, 8:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNLewis28 min
Jul 29, 8:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZMonongalia, Preston39 min
Jul 29, 9:10 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatILNAdams, Highland, Pike, Ross, Scioto4 hr
Jul 29, 9:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPBZPreston, Tucker48 min
Jul 29, 9:29 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNLewis, Mason4 hr
Jul 29, 9:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPBZMonongalia2 hr
Jul 29, 9:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNLewis48 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1163 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 108 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1163 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-29 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
775 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

780 
WWUS20 KWNS 291911
SEL3  
SPC WW 291911
INZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-300200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
315 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Indiana
  Northeast Kentucky
  Southern Ohio
  Southwest Pennsylvania
  Northern West Virginia

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
  1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak front stretching
across central Ohio into western Pennsylvania.  Those storms will
spread southward this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of
damaging wind gusts and hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest
of Cincinnati OH to 45 miles east of Latrobe PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401...WW 402...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 1:32 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCElkhart, Fulton, Jasper, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Lake and 7 more88 min
Jul 29, 2:00 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Benton, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 20 more5 hr
Jul 29, 4:18 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCElkhart, Fulton, Jasper, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Lake and 7 more87 min
Jul 29, 5:55 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Blackford, DeKalb, Grant, Huntington and 6 more95 min
Jul 29, 3:19 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Brown, Clay, Fountain, Greene, Hamilton and 17 more116 min
Jul 29, 6:34 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Henry, Rush, Union and 1 more116 min
Jul 29, 11:58 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett2 hr
Jul 29, 1:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Frederick, Washington114 min
Jul 29, 2:23 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick and 7 more8 hr
Jul 29, 3:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Calvert, Charles, Dorchester, Garrett, Montgomery and 5 more6 hr
Jul 29, 4:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 5 more94 min
Jul 29, 2:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Athens, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark and 35 more117 min
Jul 29, 7:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPhiladelphia96 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.