Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 401

July 29, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 29, 2021, 2:23 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 29, 2021, 2:23 PM EDT (18:23 UTC)
Expired
Jul 29, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 63 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 2:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHISussex62 min
Jul 29, 3:02 PM EDTTornado WarningPHISussex43 min
Jul 29, 3:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick44 min
Jul 29, 3:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Lehigh, Northampton42 min
Jul 29, 4:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll45 min
Jul 29, 4:01 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCarroll29 min
Jul 29, 4:03 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBerks, Lehigh, Northampton27 min
Jul 29, 4:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Howard44 min
Jul 29, 4:27 PM EDTTornado WarningPHILehigh, Northampton16 min
Jul 29, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren45 min
Jul 29, 4:34 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXHoward26 min
Jul 29, 4:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, City of Baltimore55 min
Jul 29, 4:56 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBucks, Lehigh, Northampton34 min
Jul 29, 4:59 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard31 min
Jul 29, 5:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Warren42 min
Jul 29, 5:08 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIHunterdon37 min
Jul 29, 5:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's40 min
Jul 29, 5:32 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIWarren2 hr
Jul 29, 5:32 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIHunterdon28 min
Jul 29, 5:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel17 min
Jul 29, 5:51 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatPHIHunterdon, Mercer24 min
Jul 29, 5:58 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Somerset3 hr
Jul 29, 6:06 PM EDTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatPHIBurlington, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth39 min
Jul 29, 6:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPBedford, Blair, Cambria12 min
Jul 29, 6:44 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIMercer, Monmouth, Ocean46 min
Jul 29, 6:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer45 min
Jul 29, 6:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset4 hr
Jul 29, 7:07 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBurlington23 min
Jul 29, 7:12 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBurlington4 hr
Jul 29, 7:18 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIMercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean27 min
Jul 29, 7:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Monmouth, Ocean50 min
Jul 29, 7:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean47 min
Jul 29, 8:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Monmouth, Ocean57 min
Jul 29, 8:03 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIOcean27 min
Jul 29, 8:19 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBurlington, Monmouth, Ocean4 hr
Jul 29, 8:39 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBurlington, Ocean51 min
Jul 29, 8:42 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIMonmouth19 min
Jul 29, 8:43 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMonmouth, Ocean3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 269 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
269 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
893 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

970 
WWUS20 KWNS 291821
SEL1  
SPC WW 291821
DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-300100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Delaware
  Central and Eastern Maryland
  Much of New Jersey
  Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania will intensify as
they move eastward, while isolated storms form out ahead of the main
activity.  A few supercells and bowing lines are expected, capable
of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of State
College PA to 40 miles east of Atlantic City NJ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 29, 4:26 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle94 min
Jul 29, 11:58 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett2 hr
Jul 29, 1:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Frederick, Washington114 min
Jul 29, 3:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Calvert, Charles, Dorchester, Garrett, Montgomery and 5 more6 hr
Jul 29, 7:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex and 2 more96 min
Jul 29, 3:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Clearfield and 6 more7 hr
Jul 29, 6:34 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Beaver, Fayette, Greene, Washington116 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Tornado Watches in New Jersey, 2021Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.