Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 94
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2021, 3:08 PM CST for Houston County, Alabama; 24 counties in Florida; 19 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2021, 3:08 PM CST (21:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 5:15 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 7...8
All 44 counties
Houston County, AL, Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Levy County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Baker County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Echols County, GA, Grady County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Thomas County, GA
The radar
The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 468 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 252 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 303 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
447
ACUS11 KWNS 152109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152108
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-152315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...the eastern half of the Florida Panhandle into
adjacent southern Georgia and northern Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...8...
Valid 152108Z - 152315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7, 8 continues.
SUMMARY...Widespread storms, and local severe weather threat,
continues within Tornado Watches 007 and 008.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of strong storms
crossing central portions of the Florida Panhandle, and far
southeastern Alabama near the Alabama/Georgia border -- within WW
007. Other/more isolated storms continue farther east, into
northern portions of the Florida Peninsula -- within WW 008.
The boundary layer across WW 007 has been slow to destabilize
northward, and with increasingly widespread precipitation
moving/spreading across the remainder of the WW area, little
additional surface-based destabilization is expected before storms
exit the watch over the next hour to hour and a half. Until then,
damaging winds will remain the primary severe risk, with a tornado
or two still possible.
Meanwhile, a much more favorable thermodynamic environment persists
across roughly the southern half of WW 008, but flow -- though
gradually increasing -- remains weaker than areas farther west.
Still, gusty/damaging winds and a tornado or two remain possible,
with risk to begin diminishing gradually into early evening beyond
the diurnal instability peak.
..Goss.. 02/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29978546 30618541 31368533 31658434 31228282 30738202
30098154 29498164 29078318 29538537 29978546SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 3:09 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fayette, Franklin, Lamar, Marion, Pickens | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 9:28 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colbert, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Lamar, Lauderdale and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 11:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston | 66 min |
| Feb 15, 11:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Coffee, Covington, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston | 5 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:38 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Liberty | 97 min |
| Feb 15, 1:47 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 17 more | 118 min |
| Feb 15, 2:02 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 13 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 15, 5:32 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Indian River, Osceola, Seminole | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.