Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 90
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2021, 1:38 PM CST for 6 counties in Florida. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2021, 1:38 PM CST (19:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 3:15 PM CST
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 7
Counties Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Liberty County, FL
The radar
The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 468 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 252 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 303 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
549
ACUS11 KWNS 151939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151938
FLZ000-GAZ000-152115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...central portions of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 7...
Valid 151938Z - 152115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 7 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing over portions of the central
Florida Panhandle, within WW 007.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates dewpoints increasing
across coastal counties across portions of the Florida Panhandle, as
winds veer to a more southerly direction ahead of the line of storms
now advancing eastward across Walton County. While convection has
remained generally elevated inland up to this point, the increasing
boundary-layer moisture suggests that risk for surface-based
convection is also increasing. Therefore, tornado risk is likewise
becoming greater with time, particularly across the Bay, Calhoun,
Liberty, and Gulf County areas over the next 1-2 hours. Some
potential for a strong tornado exists, given favorably
veering/increasing flow with height observed by the latest KTLH
WSR-88D VWP.
..Goss.. 02/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29888612 30448615 30678538 30728457 30328428 29898444
29538490 29588535 29888612SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 11:24 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 12 more | 66 min |
| Feb 15, 11:55 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 8 more | 5 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:47 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 17 more | 118 min |
| Feb 15, 2:02 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 13 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 15, 3:08 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Calhoun, Clay, Columbia and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 15, 5:32 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Indian River, Osceola, Seminole | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.