Alert archive / Georgia / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 8

February 15, 202119 counties in Florida; 36 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 15, 2021, 3:02 PM EST for 19 counties in Florida; 36 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2021, 3:02 PM EST (20:02 UTC)
Expired
Feb 15, 2021, 10:00 PM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 55 counties

Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Madison County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Camden County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Echols County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Ware County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 3:24 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEMadison55 min
Feb 15, 3:36 PM ESTTornado WarningJAXColumbia, Gilchrist, Suwannee39 min
Feb 15, 3:39 PM ESTTornado WarningTAELafayette21 min
Feb 15, 3:41 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXClay, Putnam, Saint Johns49 min
Feb 15, 4:01 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty, Early and 6 more59 min
Feb 15, 4:04 PM ESTTornado WarningJAXPutnam, Saint Johns41 min
Feb 15, 4:09 PM ESTTornado WarningJAXColumbia, Hamilton, Suwannee36 min
Feb 15, 4:21 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXClay, Duval, Putnam, Saint Johns39 min
Feb 15, 4:43 PM ESTTornado WarningJAXSaint Johns17 min
Feb 15, 4:44 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXBaker, Columbia46 min
Feb 15, 4:52 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBaker, Calhoun, Decatur, Dougherty, Grady, Lee and 3 more38 min
Feb 15, 4:57 PM ESTTornado WarningJAXBaker33 min
Feb 15, 5:11 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEJefferson, Madison, Taylor64 min
Feb 15, 5:53 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAELafayette, Madison, Taylor26 min
Feb 15, 6:40 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEDixie35 min
Feb 15, 7:07 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEDixie, Lafayette38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 83 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
408 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

485 
WWUS20 KWNS 151958
SEL8  
SPC WW 151958
FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-160300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 8
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  North Florida
  Southern Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
  1000 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible. One
regime should emanate northeast across north Florida with a primary
risk for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds. The second
regime should spread east-northeast from southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle with a few tornadoes and damaging winds as the
primary hazards.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Albany GA to 25
miles west southwest of Gainesville FL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 12:24 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 12 more66 min
Feb 15, 12:55 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 8 more5 hr
Feb 15, 2:38 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Liberty97 min
Feb 15, 2:47 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 17 more118 min
Feb 15, 4:08 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Calhoun, Clay, Columbia and 18 more2 hr
Feb 15, 6:32 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Indian River, Osceola, Seminole118 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2021Tornado Watches in Florida, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.