Alert archive / Georgia / Tornado Watches in 2021
Tornado Watch 8
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 15, 2021, 3:02 PM EST for 19 counties in Florida; 36 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2021, 3:02 PM EST (20:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 10:00 PM EST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 55 counties
Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Madison County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Camden County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Echols County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Ware County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA
The radar
The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 30%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 3:24 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Madison | 55 min |
| Feb 15, 3:36 PM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Columbia, Gilchrist, Suwannee | 39 min |
| Feb 15, 3:39 PM EST | Tornado Warning | TAE | Lafayette | 21 min |
| Feb 15, 3:41 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAX | Clay, Putnam, Saint Johns | 49 min |
| Feb 15, 4:01 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Baker, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty, Early and 6 more | 59 min |
| Feb 15, 4:04 PM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Putnam, Saint Johns | 41 min |
| Feb 15, 4:09 PM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Columbia, Hamilton, Suwannee | 36 min |
| Feb 15, 4:21 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAX | Clay, Duval, Putnam, Saint Johns | 39 min |
| Feb 15, 4:43 PM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Saint Johns | 17 min |
| Feb 15, 4:44 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAX | Baker, Columbia | 46 min |
| Feb 15, 4:52 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Baker, Calhoun, Decatur, Dougherty, Grady, Lee and 3 more | 38 min |
| Feb 15, 4:57 PM EST | Tornado Warning | JAX | Baker | 33 min |
| Feb 15, 5:11 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Jefferson, Madison, Taylor | 64 min |
| Feb 15, 5:53 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Lafayette, Madison, Taylor | 26 min |
| Feb 15, 6:40 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Dixie | 35 min |
| Feb 15, 7:07 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TAE | Dixie, Lafayette | 38 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 408 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 83 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
485
WWUS20 KWNS 151958
SEL8
SPC WW 151958
FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-160300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 8
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North Florida
Southern Georgia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1000 PM EST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible. One
regime should emanate northeast across north Florida with a primary
risk for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds. The second
regime should spread east-northeast from southeast Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle with a few tornadoes and damaging winds as the
primary hazards.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Albany GA to 25
miles west southwest of Gainesville FL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.
...GramsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 12:24 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 12 more | 66 min |
| Feb 15, 12:55 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 8 more | 5 hr |
| Feb 15, 2:38 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Liberty | 97 min |
| Feb 15, 2:47 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 17 more | 118 min |
| Feb 15, 4:08 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Calhoun, Clay, Columbia and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 15, 6:32 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Indian River, Osceola, Seminole | 118 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2021Tornado Watches in Florida, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.