Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 7

February 15, 20216 counties in Alabama; 14 counties in Florida; 10 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 15, 2021, 11:55 AM CST for 6 counties in Alabama; 14 counties in Florida; 10 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2021, 11:55 AM CST (17:55 UTC)
Expired
Feb 15, 2021, 4:52 PM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 30 counties

Coffee County, AL, Covington County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Seminole County, GA

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
60%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 12:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEWalton67 min
Feb 15, 12:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBOkaloosa36 min
Feb 15, 1:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAECoffee, Geneva41 min
Feb 15, 1:36 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBay, Holmes, Jackson, Walton, Washington54 min
Feb 15, 1:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAECoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston63 min
Feb 15, 2:02 PM CSTTornado WarningTAEBay, Walton, Washington28 min
Feb 15, 2:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAECoffee, Geneva17 min
Feb 15, 2:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBay, Calhoun, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Liberty and 1 more53 min
Feb 15, 2:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEDale, Geneva, Henry, Houston53 min
Feb 15, 2:41 PM CSTTornado WarningTAEBay, Jackson, Washington12 min
Feb 15, 3:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEHenry, Houston59 min
Feb 15, 3:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEHouston57 min
Feb 15, 3:28 PM CSTTornado WarningTAEDecatur, Miller, Seminole16 min
Feb 15, 3:30 PM CSTTornado WarningTAEBaker, Calhoun, Early, Miller19 min
Feb 15, 3:42 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatTAEBaker, Calhoun, Dougherty, Early17 min
Feb 15, 3:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBaker, Calhoun, Decatur, Dougherty, Grady, Lee and 3 more38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 252 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
468 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
252 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
303 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

566 
WWUS20 KWNS 151751
SEL7  
SPC WW 151751
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 7
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Alabama
  Florida Panhandle
  Southwest Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
  600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to spread inland within a
quasi-linear band of thunderstorms that should sweep eastward this
afternoon.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Crestview FL to 30
miles north northeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 3:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Franklin, Lamar, Marion, Pickens6 hr
Feb 15, 9:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Lamar, Lauderdale and 6 more6 hr
Feb 15, 11:24 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston66 min
Feb 15, 3:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHouston2 hr
Feb 15, 1:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Liberty97 min
Feb 15, 1:47 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 17 more118 min
Feb 15, 2:02 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 13 more7 hr
Feb 15, 5:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Indian River, Osceola, Seminole118 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2021Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2021Tornado Watches in Alabama, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.