Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 716

May 23, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 23, 2021, 6:32 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 23, 2021, 6:32 PM MDT (00:32 UTC)
Expired: May 23, 2021, 8:30 PM MDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 198

Counties Baca County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Morton County, KS, Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1078 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 977 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 125 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 163 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 6.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

649 
ACUS11 KWNS 240033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240032 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-240230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...northwest Texas
Panhandle...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...

Valid 240032Z - 240230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
continues.

SUMMARY...Despite a relative lull in convection over the past hour
or so, some additional isolated storms may develop along the
retreating dryline. Large hail would likely be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...With the main mid-level ascent north of the region and
lifting northeast, storm coverage has remained limited. Mid-level
flow is expected to weaken some with time as well. However, an
increase in 850 mb wind into the westward retreating dryline may
promote additional isolated thunderstorm development later this
evening. The 00Z AMA sounding shows mid-level lapse rates that would
support some threat for large hail. Low-level shear will increase,
but storm organization potential seems likely to diminish with time
making the threat for a tornado minimal.

..Wendt.. 05/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35290439 37370323 38080283 38140213 37460173 36420184
            35220216 34590272 34560317 34490368 34530413 35290439

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 23, 6:53 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kit Carson, Phillips, Sedgwick, Yuma	67 min
May 24, 12:29 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Kit Carson, Prowers	9 hr
May 23, 7:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 7 more	5 hr
May 23, 8:56 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Sherman and 2 more	2 hr
May 24, 12:00 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Finney, Gove, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton and 12 more	2 hr
May 24, 2:42 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan, Thomas	63 min
May 24, 4:37 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Decatur, Finney, Gove, Grant, Hamilton, Kearny and 7 more	113 min
May 24, 5:39 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Decatur, Norton	36 min
May 24, 2:57 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cimarron, Texas	7 hr
May 24, 2:07 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Carson, Castro and 38 more	113 min
May 24, 5:44 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Crosby, Dawson and 14 more	91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.